Romania

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Economic growth is expected to reach 1.6% in 2025 – up from 0.9% in 2024. Improving external balance and better agricultural output may help, but geopolitical risks, trade conflicts and volatile weather continue to pose challenges. Fiscal austerity looms, though EU fund absorption and investments are set to rise. Inflation will ease only to 5%, delaying policy rate cuts until Q4. Political tensions are running high ahead of the May presidential election, fuelled by a low level of trust in the government and polarisation in society. Nevertheless, a centrist, pro-EU candidate will likely win the run-off.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202220232024202520262027
Population, 1000 persons190491906119068...
GDP, real change in %4.02.40.91.62.53.3
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)264602969031180...
Gross industrial production, real change in %0.5-3.0-1.5...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average5.65.65.45.55.45.3
Average gross monthly wages, EUR124214241636...
Consumer prices, % p.a.12.09.75.85.04.03.5
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-6.4-6.6-9.3-7.5-6.7-5.8
Public debt in % of GDP47.948.954.6...
Current account in % of GDP-9.5-6.6-8.3-7.5-6.9-6.4
FDI inflow, EUR m1145280746766...
Gross external debt in % of GDP54.656.557.7...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

publication_icon

Monthly Report No. 1/2025

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Maciej J. Grodzicki, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2025
50 pages including 6 Tables and 13 Figures

Details

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Executive summary

Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details


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