Romania

map Romania
The household consumption-based economic boom has given way to slower growth, driven mainly by fixed capital formation. The erosion of purchasing power – a result of soaring inflation and sluggish wage growth – will persist in the first half of 2023. Inflation may start to fall by the middle of the year, as import prices stabilise and agricultural production recovers from last year’s slump. The country’s slight exposure to the Russian economy and its limited reliance on energy imports overall should help maintain stability. The moderate fiscal consolidation planned may not depress the economy and should allow the energy subsidies to continue. The current account deficit will stay high, but external financing needs will shrink somewhat. The central bank is managing to keep the exchange rate stable, which helps in the fight against inflation but damages the competitiveness of Romanian products. Elevated FDI and EU transfers will continue to play a crucial role in financing fixed investments. Romania is on track to meet the conditions for the disbursement of EU funds, though delays could possibly emerge due largely to the sluggish implementation of projects. In 2023, Romania will take further steps to strengthen its energy self-sufficiency; will continue to benefit from the trade and transport re-direction from Ukraine and Moldova; and will most probably gain access to the Schengen area, which will reduce transaction costs.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202020212022202320242025
Population, 1000 persons1926519120....
GDP, real change in %-3.75.84.72.44.04.0
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)2183024050....
Gross industrial production, real change in %-9.27.1....
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average5.05.65.35.55.45.3
Average gross monthly wages, EUR10771125....
Consumer prices, % p.a.2.34.112.011.06.04.0
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-9.2-7.1-6.5-5.0-4.5-4.0
Public debt in % of GDP46.948.6....
Current account in % of GDP-4.9-7.2-9.8-8.7-7.5-6.5
FDI inflow, EUR m30569933....
Gross external debt in % of GDP57.556.6....


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

publication_icon

Monthly Report No. 1/2023

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Nina Vujanović, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2023
44 pages including 4 Tables and 16 Figures

Details

publication_icon

Executive summary

Branimir Jovanović
in: Bracing for the Winter
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2022, October 2022 , pp. I-VIII
Details


top