Romania
The Romanian economy is suffering from recession and elevated political risk. Compared to last year, domestic and international conditions have deteriorated, leading to recession, declining confidence and rising unemployment. In Q1 2026, GDP contracted for the second quarter in a row, by 1.5%. Households reined in their consumption in the new high-tax, high-inflation environment, while the government also trimmed current spending in the wake of fiscal consolidation. Industrial production shrank in the absence of demand and low competitiveness, though construction has shown some growth. Energy costs have surged, inflation has accelerated and the currency has depreciated following global commodity price hikes and a government crisis. Gross fixed capital formation fuelled by EU funds remained a bright spot, while net exports improved, owing to the reduced demand for imports.
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FORECAST* |
| Main Economic Indicators | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 19061 | 19055 | 19000 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.7 | -0.1 | 1.6 | 2.3 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 28720 | 30770 | 32350 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -3.0 | -1.5 | -0.9 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 5.6 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 6.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 1424 | 1620 | 1745 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 9.7 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -6.6 | -9.3 | -7.9 | -6.2 | -5.8 | -5.2 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 49.3 | 54.8 | 59.3 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -6.7 | -8.2 | -7.9 | -7.1 | -6.8 | -6.5 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 8074 | 6586 | 8377 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 56.9 | 57.5 | 60.1 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
publication_icon
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2026
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Ioannis Gutzianas, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Biljana Jovanovikj, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Isilda Mara, Michał Możdżeń, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Marina Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2026
52 pages including 5 Tables
Details
publication_icon
Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
The Romanian economy is suffering from recession and elevated political risk. Compared to last year, domestic and international conditions have deteriorated, leading to recession, declining confidence and rising unemployment. In Q1 2026, GDP contracted for the second quarter in a row, by 1.5%. Households reined in their consumption in the new high-tax, high-inflation environment, while the government also trimmed current spending in the wake of fiscal consolidation. Industrial production shrank in the absence of demand and low competitiveness, though construction has shown some growth. Energy costs have surged, inflation has accelerated and the currency has depreciated following global commodity price hikes and a government crisis. Gross fixed capital formation fuelled by EU funds remained a bright spot, while net exports improved, owing to the reduced demand for imports.
