Romania

Economic growth is even stronger than last year, and could reach 4.2% in 2019, driven by household consumption and investment. Monetary and fiscal policy remains loose. Expanding deficits can be easily financed due to abundant international liquidity, albeit at a relatively high cost, constituting a burden for the future. Weaker external demand is already feeding through to industrial production, and will act as a barrier to growth in the future. We expect the interim government to take steps to curtail the fiscal deficit in 2020.

map Romania
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201720182019202020212022
Population, 1000 persons195871946619400...
GDP, real change in %7.14.44.03.33.0.
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)1900020300....
Gross industrial production, real change in %7.93.5-2.0...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average4.94.23.93.73.7.
Average gross monthly wages, EUR7059361039...
Consumer prices, % p.a.1.14.13.93.53.5.
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-2.6-2.9-4.5...
Public debt in % of GDP35.134.737.0...
Current account in % of GDP-2.8-4.4-5.2-5.0-4.9.
FDI inflow, EUR mn522562056300...
Gross external debt in % of GDP51.948.849.3...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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ROMANIA: New government to initiate fiscal consolidation

Gabor Hunya
in: Braced for Fallout from Global Slowdown
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2019, November 2019 , pp. 101-104
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Monthly Report No. 6/2019

Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Hermine Vidovic and Goran Vuksic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 6, June 2019
27 pages including 24 Tables and 1 Figure

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