Romania

Despite the high epidemiological risk, the government plans only local lockdowns in future. GDP is projected to decline by 5.5% in 2020 and to hit its 2019 level only in 2022. A budget deficit of close to 10% of GDP has caused a rise in bond yields and currency depreciation, but presents no immediate risk to external financing. The December election should produce a centre-right coalition government; it is expected to improve public governance – an important precondition for spending EU funds.

map Romania
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201720182019202020212022
Population, 1000 persons195871947319366...
GDP, real change in %7.34.54.2-5.53.74.5
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)186501991021620...
Gross industrial production, real change in %7.93.5-2.3...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average4.94.23.95.56.05.0
Average gross monthly wages, EUR7059361023...
Consumer prices, % p.a.1.14.13.92.53.03.0
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-2.6-2.9-4.4...
Public debt in % of GDP35.134.735.3...
Current account in % of GDP-2.8-4.4-4.7-4.7-4.6-4.7
FDI inflow, EUR mn522562056574...
Gross external debt in % of GDP51.948.847.4...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

publication_icon

ROMANIA: Getting away with large fiscal imbalances

Gabor Hunya
in: No Quick Recovery in Sight, with Coronavirus Risks Looming Large
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2020, November 2020 , pp. 100-103
Details and Buy

publication_icon

Monthly Report No. 5/2020

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 5, May 2020
96 pages including 27 Tables and 39 Figures

Details


top