Economic growth in Romania is expected to hover around 4% in 2017 and beyond. Household demand will remain the main driver, but investments may also play a bigger role. Rising private sector wages may speed up the growth in household consumption; this constitutes an upside risk to the forecast. The capacity to absorb EU funds and political uncertainty constitute downside risks. Currently the government’s official GDP forecast for 2017 2019 of annual growth above 5% looks unrealistic.
|Main Economic Indicators||2014||2015||2016||2017||2018||2019|
|Population, 1000 persons.||19909||19815||19830||.||.||.|
|GDP, real change in %||3.1||3.9||4.8||4.0||4.0||4.0|
|GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)||15300||16500||17300||.||.||.|
|Gross industrial production, real change in %||6.1||2.8||1.0||.||.||.|
|Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average||6.8||6.8||5.9||5.8||5.6||5.5|
|Average gross monthly wages, EUR||524||575||642||.||.||.|
|Consumer prices, % p.a.||1.4||-0.4||-1.1||1.5||2.5||2.5|
|Fiscal balance in % of GDP||-0.9||-0.8||-2.0||.||.||.|
|Public debt in % of GDP||39.4||38.0||38.0||.||.||.|
|Current account in % of GDP||-0.7||-1.2||-2.4||-2.5||-2.6||-2.6|
|FDI inflow, EUR mn||2931||3885||4804||.||.||.|
|Gross external debt in % of GDP||63.0||56.5||54.7||.||.||.|
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
ROMANIA: Economic deceleration follows the boom
in: Cautious Upturn in CESEE: Haunted by the Spectre of Uncertainty
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2017, March 2017 , pp. 103-106 Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 1/2017
Rumen Dobrinsky, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya and Leon Podkaminer
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2017
45 pages including 1 Table and 33 Figures