Romania
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 19122 | 19049 | 19059 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 5.5 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 23980 | 26440 | 29940 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 7.1 | 0.5 | -3.0 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 1125 | 1242 | 1424 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 4.1 | 12.0 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 4.5 | 3.5 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -7.1 | -6.4 | -6.5 | -7.5 | -6.0 | -5.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 48.3 | 47.9 | 48.9 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -7.2 | -9.2 | -7.0 | -7.5 | -6.8 | -6.5 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 9933 | 10902 | 8074 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 56.4 | 51.1 | 51.9 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
publication_icon
Monthly Report No. 12/2024
Branimir Jovanović, Artem Kochnev, Manuel Neubauer and Monika Schwarzhappel
wiiw Monthly Report No. 12, December 2024
55 pages including 1 Table and 38 Figures
publication_icon
Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
Economic growth will not exceed 2%, despite bullish household demand in 2024. The fiscal and current account deficits will increase from their already high levels. Fiscal austerity is expected to be implemented by the incoming government that will be formed following the December elections; however, the measures are likely to be spread out over several years, in order to maintain the country’s capacity to invest. Inflation will decline in 2025, but only slowly in view of the cuts to subsidies and the higher taxes. An improvement in the external balance and higher EU-funded investment could lead to GDP growth accelerating to 2.5% in 2025 and 3% in 2026, despite slowing household demand.