Bulgaria
Bulgaria’s GDP grew by 3.5% in the first quarter which was slightly below the 3.6% annual GDP growth in 2017. Similarly to 2017, domestic demand remained the main engine of growth, but overall it seems that the economic cycle has passed its peak. Given the expectations for weakening external demand and the existing labour shortages, the short-term prospects are for some moderation in economic growth. Nevertheless, GDP growth should stay in the range of 3.0-3.5% per annum in the coming years.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 7178 | 7128 | 7076 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 3.6 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.1 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 13700 | 14200 | 14700 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 2.9 | 2.7 | 3.4 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 9.2 | 7.6 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 5.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 449 | 485 | 542 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | -1.1 | -1.3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -1.6 | 0.2 | 0.9 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 26.0 | 29.0 | 25.4 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 0.0 | 2.3 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 2.0 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 2430 | 1474 | 1447 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 74.0 | 71.1 | 66.0 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Monthly Report No. 6/2018
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 6, June 2018
27 pages including 1 Table and 1 Figure
BULGARIA: Growth continues but may be close to the limits
Rumen Dobrinsky
in: Riding the Global Growth Wave
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2018, March 2018 , pp. 81-85
Details and Buy