Bulgaria
Political turmoil in Bulgaria continues for a third consecutive month, with daily protests demanding the resignation of the government. The negative economic shock of the COVID-19 pandemic was most pronounced in the second quarter, and its intensity has now subsided. In response, the authorities launched two packages of fiscal support measures. For 2020 as a whole, GDP should decline by some 5%, while a gradual recovery is expected over the following two years.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 7076 | 7025 | 6976 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 3.5 | 3.1 | 3.7 | -5.1 | 1.7 | 2.6 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 14690 | 15530 | 16510 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 3.4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 6.2 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 6.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 530 | 586 | 651 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 1.2 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 25.3 | 22.3 | 20.2 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 3.5 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 1760 | 1539 | 1472 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 64.7 | 61.5 | 57.4 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
BULGARIA: Economy heading towards a slow recovery amidst continuing political unrest
Rumen Dobrinsky
in: No Quick Recovery in Sight, with Coronavirus Risks Looming Large
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2020, November 2020 , pp. 48-51
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 5/2020
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 5, May 2020
96 pages including 27 Tables and 39 Figures