Bulgaria
GDP grew by 3.3% in the first half of 2018 which was below the rates of growth in the three preceding years. The moderation in output growth coincided with a slowdown in exports. The labour market tightened further and labour costs continued to rise. CPI accelerated due to rising energy prices and growing cost-push inflationary pressure. We expect GDP growth for 2018 as a whole of around 3.3%, and it should stay at a similar level in the coming years.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 7128 | 7076 | 7000 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.0 | . |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 14200 | 14800 | 15600 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 2.7 | 3.4 | 0.8 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 7.6 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.0 | . |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 485 | 530 | 580 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | -1.3 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | . |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | 0.2 | 1.1 | 1.0 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 29.6 | 25.6 | 22.6 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 2.6 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | . |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 1390 | 1896 | 1936 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 71.1 | 64.6 | 60.0 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
BULGARIA: Further moderation of growth
Rumen Dobrinsky
in: Strong Growth Amid Increased Negative Risks
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2018, November 2018 , pp. 72-75
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 6/2018
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 6, June 2018
27 pages including 1 Table and 1 Figure