Bulgaria
In 2017, Bulgaria’s GDP grew by close to 4%, similarly to the previous year. The pattern of growth switched from being export led in 2016 to being driven by domestic demand in 2017. Manufacturing, tourism and business services remained the main growth drivers. The rise in labour demand led to a labour shortage, which is turning into a constraint on growth. The Bulgarian economy is poised to preserve its momentum in the short run; however, it is unlikely that GDP growth will accelerate in the near future.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 7178 | 7128 | 7076 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 3.6 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.4 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 13700 | 14200 | 14800 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 2.9 | 2.6 | 3.5 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 9.2 | 7.6 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 5.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 449 | 485 | 542 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | -1.1 | -1.3 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -1.6 | 0.2 | 0.9 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 26.0 | 29.0 | 25.4 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 0.0 | 2.3 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 2430 | 1474 | 1447 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 74.0 | 71.1 | 66.0 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
BULGARIA: Growth continues but may be close to the limits
Rumen Dobrinsky
in: Riding the Global Growth Wave
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2018, March 2018 , pp. 81-85
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2017
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, August 2017
27 pages including 1 Table and 2 Figures