Bulgaria
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 7025 | 6976 | 6934 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 2.7 | 4.0 | -4.4 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.2 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 15610 | 16670 | 16410 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 0.3 | 0.6 | -5.9 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 5.2 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 586 | 648 | 711 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | 1.7 | 2.1 | -4.0 | -4.0 | -2.5 | -2.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 22.1 | 20.0 | 24.7 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 0.9 | 1.9 | -0.3 | -1.1 | -1.5 | -1.3 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 1542 | 1983 | 2384 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 66.1 | 61.3 | 64.6 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
publication_icon
Executive summary
Vasily Astrov
in: Recovery Beating Expectations
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2021, October 2021 , pp. I-VI
Details
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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2021
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2021
42 pages including 4 Tables and 15 Figures
Bulgaria goes to the polls in November for the third time in 2021, after two failed attempts in parliament to form a government. Despite the political impasse, a moderate recovery has been under way, mostly driven by domestic demand. In early autumn, the country was hit by a new and powerful wave of COVID-19 – in large part a consequence of the very low vaccination rate. The short-term outlook has improved slightly and GDP is expected to grow by 3.5% in 2021 as a whole. Growth is expected to remain moderate in the coming years.