Bulgaria
Bulgaria has a new president and is expecting a new government after the early elections in March 2017. The economy is in relatively good shape, with GDP increasing by 3.4% in 2016. Growth was balanced, driven by both private consumption and exports; however, fixed investment became a drag on growth, due to delays in public investment programmes. There are no visible external or domestic imbalances, and the economy seems set to remain on the path of moderate growth in the foreseeable future.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
| Population, 1000 persons. | 7224 | 7178 | 7128 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 1.3 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.3 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 12800 | 13600 | 13900 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.6 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 11.4 | 9.2 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 6.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 420 | 449 | 492 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | -1.6 | -1.1 | -1.3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -5.5 | -1.7 | 0.0 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 27.0 | 26.0 | 29.5 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 0.1 | -0.1 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 2.8 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 1539 | 2494 | 1129 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 92.0 | 75.0 | 73.1 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
BULGARIA: On track for moderate growth
Rumen Dobrinsky
in: Cautious Upturn in CESEE: Haunted by the Spectre of Uncertainty
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2017, March 2017 , pp. 55-59
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 1/2017
Rumen Dobrinsky, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya and Leon Podkaminer
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2017
45 pages including 1 Table and 33 Figures
