Bulgaria
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 6465 | 6447 | 6400 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 4.0 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 3.0 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 22450 | 24340 | 26250 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 12.7 | -8.3 | -3.1 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.1 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 905 | 1043 | 1188 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 13.0 | 8.6 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.3 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -2.9 | -2.0 | -3.0 | -3.0 | -3.0 | -3.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 22.5 | 22.9 | 24.0 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -2.7 | -0.9 | -1.8 | -1.0 | -1.1 | -0.7 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 4750 | 5166 | 3233 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 50.3 | 47.5 | 47.4 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
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Monthly Report No. 1/2025
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Maciej J. Grodzicki, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2025
50 pages including 6 Tables and 13 Figures
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
Economic growth remained moderate in H2 2024, with private consumption continuing as the key driver, boosted by higher real disposable incomes. On the other hand, exports faced significant challenges due to unfavourable external demand and made a negative contribution to GDP growth. The absence of reform and the lack of a conducive political environment led to Bulgaria failing to receive any payments under the Recovery and Resilience Plan in 2024. In October, the country held its seventh snap election in three years, with GERB-SDS once again receiving the greatest share of the votes (25.5%). A minority GERB-SDS-led government was subsequently formed, although it will probably prove unstable and is unlikely to remain in power for four years. It is estimated that the budget deficit last year again reached around 3% of GDP. As of 1 January 2025, the interim government hiked the minimum wage by a further 15.4%, continuing the lax income policy pursued over the last couple of years, which have seen salaries and pensions rising. However, the 2025 Fiscal Budget Draft prepared by the interim government is unlikely to secure parliamentary approval: at 46%, the envisaged share of fiscal expenditure in GDP is very high, and some revenue is questionable. This reveals a need for urgent fiscal reform to ensure a sustainable fiscal position. As in our 2024 autumn forecast, we anticipate GDP growth of around 2.4% in 2025 and slightly above in subsequent years, driven mainly by domestic demand. Bulgaria's full membership of the Schengen Area from January 2025 will have a positive impact on the economies of both Bulgaria and the EU, by boosting trade and tourism.