Bulgaria
The short-term economic prospects have improved, and we expect GDP to grow by some 3% in 2021 – up from the 2.5% expected in April. The recovery in the key EU markets should support robust export growth, and domestic demand is also expected to rebound strongly. However, uncertainties remain as regards the tourist industry, as foreign visitors are not expected to return in large numbers. Another negative factor is the delay already experienced in accessing EU funds from the Recovery and Resilience Facility. We expect a small current account deficit for the year as a whole, due to the probable shortfall in tourism revenue.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 7025 | 6976 | 6934 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 3.1 | 3.7 | -4.2 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.8 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 15530 | 16510 | 16270 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 0.3 | 0.6 | -5.9 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 5.2 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 586 | 648 | 709 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | 2.0 | 2.1 | -3.4 | -3.5 | -2.5 | -2.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 22.3 | 20.2 | 25.0 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 0.9 | 1.8 | -0.7 | -1.2 | -1.0 | -0.8 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 1542 | 1858 | 2195 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 61.5 | 57.6 | 63.4 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2021
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanovic, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2021
42 pages including 4 Tables and 15 Figures
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BULGARIA: Moderate post-COVID recovery
Rumen Dobrinsky
in: Darkest before the dawn?
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2021, April 2021 , pp. 56-59
Details and Buy
While GDP dropped by 1.8% year on year in the first quarter of 2021, the current statistics nevertheless indicate a trend towards recovery. Both manufacturing and exports have reported robust growth since April, and recent business surveys reveal improved business and consumer sentiment. The regular elections, held in April, resulted in a split parliament, which has been unable to agree on a new government, and so a snap election is due in July. The caretaker administration did not submit the draft National Recovery and Resilience Plan prepared by the former government to the European Commission, as the new authorities intended to revise it. The short-term economic prospects have improved, and we expect GDP to grow by some 3% in 2021 – up from the 2.5% expected in April. The recovery in the key EU markets should support robust export growth, and domestic demand is also expected to rebound strongly. However, uncertainties remain as regards the tourist industry, as foreign visitors are not expected to return in large numbers. Another negative factor is the delay already experienced in accessing EU funds from the Recovery and Resilience Facility. We expect a small current account deficit for the year as a whole, due to the probable shortfall in tourism revenue.