Bulgaria
The spread of the COVID-19 infection in Bulgaria has been relatively limited, but the country has been under lockdown since mid-March. The economic fallout from the pandemic is widespread, affecting a large number of sectors. The government launched a package of fiscal support measures, but their effectiveness is in doubt, especially as regards employment protection. Overall, we expect GDP to drop by more than 6% in 2020; this will be coupled with a surge in unemployment.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 7076 | 7025 | 6976 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 3.5 | 3.1 | 3.4 | -6.3 | 1.7 | . |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 14900 | 15700 | 16600 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 3.4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 6.2 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 10.0 | 9.0 | . |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 530 | 586 | 651 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 1.2 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 2.0 | . |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | 1.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 25.3 | 22.3 | 20.4 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 3.5 | 1.4 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 1.7 | . |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 1760 | 1520 | 1348 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 64.7 | 60.3 | 56.2 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Forecasts as of March 2020 considering the effect of COVID-19 with a severe scenario. Due to this uncertain situation we only offer forecasts for GDP.
Monthly Report No. 5/2020
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 5, May 2020
96 pages including 27 Tables and 39 Figures
BULGARIA: Slowdown likely to continue
Rumen Dobrinsky
in: Uncertainty in Turbulent Times
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2020, March 2020 , pp. 75-78
Details and Buy