Bulgaria

map Bulgaria
Output performance weakened in the second half of 2022, reflecting the harsh external environment; meanwhile, GDP growth for the year as a whole is likely to have been 3% (unchanged from the autumn forecast). The early elections of October 2022 produced another scattered vote, reflecting the country’s profound societal rifts. There is still no agreement among the parties on the formation of a government, so the country may face fresh elections in spring. In the absence of a regular government, parliament was unable to pass a budget for 2023: under the rules, public spending this year should follow the previous budget’s guidelines. Public finances ended 2022 deep in the red, partly due to a range of extraordinary spending items that stemmed from the budgetary revision of last summer. Given this and the lack of a clear policy line, there is a risk that the abnormally elevated 2022 expenditure will be ‘locked in’, which could lead to a chronic fiscal gap. All components of final demand are expected to weaken further in 2023, resulting in GDP growth slowing to about 1.5%. Inflation should subside somewhat, but the carry-over effects from 2022 mean that it will remain high and could even reach double digits in 2023.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202020212022202320242025
Population, 1000 persons69346878....
GDP, real change in %-4.07.63.01.52.53.0
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)1657018640....
Gross industrial production, real change in %-5.98.9....
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average5.15.34.74.64.54.5
Average gross monthly wages, EUR711793....
Consumer prices, % p.a.1.22.813.010.07.05.0
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-3.8-3.9-4.0-5.0-4.0-3.0
Public debt in % of GDP24.523.9....
Current account in % of GDP0.0-0.5-1.2-0.90.50.0
FDI inflow, EUR m31581769....
Gross external debt in % of GDP63.858.4....


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 1/2023

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Nina Vujanović, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2023
44 pages including 4 Tables and 16 Figures

Details

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Executive summary

Branimir Jovanović
in: Bracing for the Winter
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2022, October 2022 , pp. I-VIII
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