Bulgaria

map Bulgaria
Following failure after failure to form a stable government, Bulgarians are going to the polls in October for the seventh snap election since 2021. Economic activity remains weak, due to an unfavourable external environment and a lack of clear policy direction. Robust private consumption has provided the main support for GDP growth. No major changes are expected in economic performance in the short term. We expect GDP to grow by 2.2% in 2024 and by slightly more in the next two years, driven largely by domestic demand.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202120222023202420252026
Population, 1000 persons650764656447...
GDP, real change in %7.84.01.92.22.42.8
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)196902208024340...
Gross industrial production, real change in %9.812.7-8.3...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average5.34.34.34.54.34.2
Average gross monthly wages, EUR7989051029...
Consumer prices, % p.a.2.813.08.62.03.03.5
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-3.9-2.9-2.0-3.0-3.0-3.0
Public debt in % of GDP23.822.522.9...
Current account in % of GDP-1.1-2.60.9-0.8-0.8-0.6
FDI inflow, EUR m194646443760...
Gross external debt in % of GDP57.750.747.6...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2024

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2024
45 pages including 5 Tables and 12 Figures

Details

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Executive summary

Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
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