Bulgaria
After a strong first quarter, GDP growth slowed down reflecting a worsening domestic and external environment. Cost-push inflationary pressures were partly offset by the weaker domestic demand and inflation stopped rising. Domestic and external demand are expected to weaken further and this will be coupled with continued labour shortages The rate of GDP growth for 2019 as a whole will still be decent, at some 3.5%, but it is expected to slow down in the following years.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 7128 | 7076 | 7025 | 6950 | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 2.4 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 14300 | 14900 | 15700 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 2.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.0 | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 7.6 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.4 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 485 | 530 | 586 | 649 | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | -1.3 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | 0.1 | 1.1 | 1.8 | -1.5 | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 29.3 | 25.3 | 22.3 | 20.5 | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 3.2 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 10.1 | 4.4 | 3.2 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 1313 | 1760 | 1057 | 1000 | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 71.3 | 65.4 | 59.1 | 58.0 | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
BULGARIA: Uneven growth signalling a slowdown
Rumen Dobrinsky
in: Braced for Fallout from Global Slowdown
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2019, November 2019 , pp. 52-55
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 6/2019
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Hermine Vidovic and Goran Vuksic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 6, June 2019
27 pages including 24 Tables and 1 Figure