Bulgaria
GDP grew by 4.8% in the first quarter, which was much above the ex ante expectations. Better than expected export performance was the main factor behind the upturn. Credit activity also rebounded, mirroring robust domestic demand. The labour market remained tight and wages continued to rise. The short-term outlook has improved and GDP is expected to grow by 3.5% or even more in 2019 as a whole. The rise in cost-push pressures may result in an acceleration of inflation.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 7128 | 7076 | 7025 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.1 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 14200 | 14800 | 15500 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 2.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 7.6 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.6 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 485 | 530 | 580 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | -1.3 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | 0.1 | 1.2 | 2.0 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 29.6 | 25.6 | 22.6 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 2.6 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 3.1 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 1390 | 1896 | 2232 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 71.1 | 65.5 | 60.4 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Monthly Report No. 6/2019
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Hermine Vidovic and Goran Vuksic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 6, June 2019
27 pages including 24 Tables and 1 Figure
BULGARIA: Economy loses pace
Rumen Dobrinsky
in: Moving Into the Slow Lane
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2019, March 2019 , pp. 71-75
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