Bulgaria
A broad-based economic upturn is underway in Bulgaria. GDP increased by 3.9% year on year in the first quarter driven by robust performance in manufacturing and business services. On the demand side, private consumption and exports provided solid support to economic growth. Fixed investment should also be picking up in the coming months and will provide a further growth impetus. All indications are that the Bulgarian economy will retain its momentum at GDP growth rates of around 3.5% p.a.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
| Population, 1000 persons. | 7224 | 7178 | 7128 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 1.3 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.6 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 12800 | 13600 | 13900 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.6 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 11.4 | 9.2 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 6.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 420 | 449 | 492 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | -1.6 | -1.1 | -1.3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -5.5 | -1.7 | 0.0 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 27.0 | 26.0 | 29.5 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 0.1 | -0.1 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.0 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 1539 | 2494 | 1129 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 92.0 | 75.0 | 73.1 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2017
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2017
27 pages including 1 Table and 2 Figures
BULGARIA: On track for moderate growth
Rumen Dobrinsky
in: Cautious Upturn in CESEE: Haunted by the Spectre of Uncertainty
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2017, March 2017 , pp. 55-59
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