Bulgaria
The 3% increase in GDP in 2018 was below the rates of growth in the preceding years. The slowdown mirrors a weakening of exports which became a drag on economic activity. The tight labour market was adding supply constraints to growth. By contrast, private consumption surged, providing an impetus to economic activity in 2018. We expect further moderation of GDP growth in the period 2019-2011. In the absence of external shocks, the macroeconomic situation will remain stable and under control.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 7128 | 7076 | 7025 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 14200 | 14800 | 15700 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 2.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 7.6 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.6 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 485 | 530 | 580 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | -1.3 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | 0.1 | 1.2 | 2.0 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 29.6 | 25.6 | 22.6 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 2.6 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 1390 | 1896 | 2232 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 71.1 | 65.5 | 60.4 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
BULGARIA: Economy loses pace
Rumen Dobrinsky
in: Moving Into the Slow Lane
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2019, March 2019 , pp. 71-75
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 6/2018
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 6, June 2018
27 pages including 1 Table and 1 Figure