Bulgaria
After a year of protests and social turmoil, Bulgaria is entering a new electoral cycle with uncertain outcomes. The negative macroeconomic impact of the pandemic in 2020 was moderate. The shocks were partly mitigated by the policy support measures launched by the authorities. The post-COVID recovery is also expected to be moderate, with GDP growth of 2.5% in 2021 and slightly higher in the following two years.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 7025 | 6976 | 6934 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 3.1 | 3.7 | -4.2 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 3.4 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 15530 | 16510 | 16200 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 0.3 | 0.6 | -5.9 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 5.2 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 586 | 648 | 709 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | 2.0 | 1.9 | -4.0 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 22.3 | 20.2 | 26.5 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 0.9 | 1.8 | -0.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 1542 | 1858 | 2195 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 61.5 | 57.4 | 60.7 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
BULGARIA: Moderate post-COVID recovery
Rumen Dobrinsky
in: Darkest before the dawn?
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2021, April 2021 , pp. 56-59
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 5/2020
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 5, May 2020
96 pages including 27 Tables and 39 Figures