Bulgaria
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 6465 | 6447 | 6400 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 4.0 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.7 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 22450 | 24330 | 26260 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 12.7 | -8.3 | -3.1 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 3.9 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 905 | 1043 | 1188 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 13.0 | 8.6 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -3.0 | -2.0 | -3.0 | -3.0 | -3.0 | -3.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 22.5 | 22.9 | 24.1 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -2.7 | -0.9 | -1.8 | -2.1 | -1.1 | -0.5 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 4750 | 5166 | 3233 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 50.3 | 47.5 | 47.4 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
publication_icon
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2025
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Maciej Grodzicki, Ioannis Gutzianas, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2025
38 pages including 5 Tables and 3 Figures
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
On 4 June 2025, Bulgaria took delivery of favourable convergence reports from the European Commission and the European Central Bank, indicating that the country had met the formal criteria necessary for its adoption of the euro. The government now plans to introduce the euro on 1 January 2026, making Bulgaria the twenty-first member state to join the euro area. This follows a brief domestic standoff in May, when President Radev called for a referendum on euro adoption – call which the speaker of the National Assembly rejected. There is now a legal dispute regarding the referendum, but it is unlikely to impede the process. The final decision now rests with the EU institutions. Approval from the European Council, European Parliament and ECOFIN must follow the convergence reports. The green light from ECOFIN is crucial and is expected to be given on 8 July 2025. In Q1 2025, economic growth reached 3.1%, driven by strong domestic demand. One key factor was private consumption, supported by an increase in real disposable income. In contrast, exports are facing significant challenges on account of the unfavourable external demand, resulting in a continued decline that is having a negative impact on GDP growth. We have kept our GDP growth forecast for 2025 unchanged at around 2.3%, with a slight increase projected for the following two years. Domestic demand is expected to remain the primary contributor to GDP growth during this period.