map Bulgaria
Bulgaria goes to the polls in November for the third time in 2021, after two failed attempts in parliament to form a government. Despite the political impasse, a moderate recovery has been under way, mostly driven by domestic demand. In early autumn, the country was hit by a new and powerful wave of COVID-19 – in large part a consequence of the very low vaccination rate. The short-term outlook has improved slightly and GDP is expected to grow by 3.5% in 2021 as a whole. Growth is expected to remain moderate in the coming years.
Main Economic Indicators201820192020202120222023
Population, 1000 persons702569766934...
GDP, real change in %2.74.0-
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)156101667016410...
Gross industrial production, real change in %0.30.6-5.9...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average5.
Average gross monthly wages, EUR586648711...
Consumer prices, % p.a.
Fiscal balance in % of GDP1.72.1-4.0-4.0-2.5-2.0
Public debt in % of GDP22.120.024.7...
Current account in % of GDP0.91.9-0.3-1.1-1.5-1.3
FDI inflow, EUR m154219832384...
Gross external debt in % of GDP66.161.364.6...

Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.


Executive summary

Vasily Astrov
in: Recovery Beating Expectations
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2021, October 2021 , pp. I-VI


Monthly Report No. 7-8/2021

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2021
42 pages including 4 Tables and 15 Figures