Bulgaria
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 6507 | 6465 | 6447 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.8 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 19690 | 22080 | 24340 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 9.8 | 12.7 | -8.3 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 5.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.2 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 798 | 905 | 1043 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 2.8 | 13.0 | 8.6 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 3.5 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -3.9 | -2.9 | -2.0 | -3.0 | -3.0 | -3.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 23.8 | 22.5 | 22.9 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -1.1 | -2.6 | 0.9 | -0.8 | -0.8 | -0.6 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 1946 | 4644 | 3760 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 57.7 | 50.7 | 47.6 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
publication_icon
Monthly Report No. 12/2024
Branimir Jovanović, Artem Kochnev, Manuel Neubauer and Monika Schwarzhappel
wiiw Monthly Report No. 12, December 2024
55 pages including 1 Table and 38 Figures
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
Following failure after failure to form a stable government, Bulgarians are going to the polls in October for the seventh snap election since 2021. Economic activity remains weak, due to an unfavourable external environment and a lack of clear policy direction. Robust private consumption has provided the main support for GDP growth. No major changes are expected in economic performance in the short term. We expect GDP to grow by 2.2% in 2024 and by slightly more in the next two years, driven largely by domestic demand.