Bulgaria
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 6934 | 6878 | 6800 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | -4.0 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.7 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 16570 | 18640 | 20680 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -5.9 | 9.8 | 12.7 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 5.1 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 711 | 798 | 900 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 1.2 | 2.8 | 13.0 | 10.0 | 7.0 | 5.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -3.8 | -3.9 | -2.8 | -5.0 | -4.0 | -3.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 24.5 | 23.9 | 22.9 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 0.0 | -1.9 | -0.7 | -0.5 | -0.3 | 0.3 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 3154 | 2084 | 3014 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 63.3 | 58.0 | 52.5 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
publication_icon
Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: Sailing Through Rough Waters
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2023, April 2023 , pp. I-VI
Details
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Monthly Report No. 4/2023
Vasily Astrov, Olga Pindyuk, Maryna Tverdostup and Sergey Utkin
wiiw Monthly Report No. 4, April 2023
53 pages including 2 Tables and 33 Figures
The early general election held in April 2023 – the fifth in two years – has delivered no clear winner. The absence of a stable government over the past couple of years has resulted in fiscal destabilisation and delays to the country’s planned accession to the euro area. While GDP growth in 2022 was above expectations (thanks to a surge in exports), in 2023 it will slow to 1.7%. Rebalancing the public finances requires a radical shift in fiscal policies – something that may be problematic given the current political environment.