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Thanks to extremely tight monetary policy, inflation has largely been brought under control. However, this success has come at the cost of weakening domestic demand and stalling GDP growth. Stagnation, moderate oil prices and a strong rouble have all put government revenue under pressure, which has prompted further tax hikes, including in the VAT rate. After a disappointing 1.2% this year, growth is expected to accelerate slightly, to 1.4% and 1.5% in 2026 and 2027, respectively, with a further easing of monetary policy providing modest support to consumption.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202320242025202620272028
Population, 1000 persons146299146135....
GDP, real change in %4.14.30.71.21.51.5
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)2872030240....
Gross industrial production, real change in %4.35.6....
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average3.22.52.22.42.62.7
Average gross monthly wages, EUR812889....
Consumer prices, % p.a.5.98.48.76.14.43.9
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-2.2-1.6-2.7-2.2-1.5-1.5
Public debt in % of GDP14.514.416.017.518.018.5
Current account in % of GDP2.42.91.61.11.21.5
FDI inflow, EUR m-9284-8636....
Gross external debt in % of GDP15.013.811.011.010.510.5


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 1/2026

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Maciej Grodzicki, Ioannis Gutzianas, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Biljana Jovanovikj, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Marina Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2026
58 pages including 6 Tables and 15 Figures

Details

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Executive summary

Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII Details

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