Russia
The growth momentum that seemed to gain strength at the end of last year has substantially weakened in the first months of 2017. No major reforms are on the horizon and economic growth will remain sluggish. Russia is facing a prolonged period of (near) stagnation in economic, political and social developments alike. A speedy and complete lifting of sanctions is not expected. Still, a resuscitation of a dialogue is urgently needed before any normalisation of relations with neighbours can occur.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
| Population, 1000 persons. | 146091 | 146406 | 146675 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 0.7 | -2.8 | -0.2 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 18700 | 17700 | 17200 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 1.7 | -3.4 | 1.1 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 5.2 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 640 | 502 | 495 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 7.8 | 15.5 | 7.1 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -1.1 | -3.4 | -3.7 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 13.0 | 13.2 | 12.9 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 2.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 16655 | 6163 | 29776 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 31.7 | 38.6 | 42.1 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2017
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2017
27 pages including 1 Table and 2 Figures
RUSSIAN FEDERATION: A shallow recovery, external risks remain elevated
Peter Havlik
in: Cautious Upturn in CESEE: Haunted by the Spectre of Uncertainty
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2017, March 2017 , pp. 107-110
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