Russia

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In Q1 2026, real GDP shrank by 0.2% year on year, marking a contraction for the first time in three years. The main reason for this was the 14.3% drop in investment activity, in the wake of high borrowing costs and the fact that import substitution has arguably reached its limits. Manufacturing output picked up by 0.3% in the first four months, with only six industries – three of them with a major share of military production – recording positive dynamics, largely thanks to an ongoing boom in the production of drones. By contrast, household consumption has held up reasonably well: retail trade turnover increased by 4.3%.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202320242025202620272028
Population, 1000 persons146299146135146000...
GDP, real change in %4.14.91.00.61.31.7
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)283703042031610...
Gross industrial production, real change in %4.35.11.3...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average3.22.52.22.42.62.7
Average gross monthly wages, EUR8128891064...
Consumer prices, % p.a.5.98.48.75.74.03.9
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-2.2-1.6-3.9-2.2-1.9-1.6
Public debt in % of GDP14.714.416.4...
Current account in % of GDP2.42.91.54.12.42.3
FDI inflow, EUR m-9284-86369878...
Gross external debt in % of GDP15.213.811.5...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2026

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Ioannis Gutzianas, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Biljana Jovanovikj, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Isilda Mara, Michał Możdżeń, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Marina Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2026
52 pages including 5 Tables

Details

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Executive summary

Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
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