Russia
President Putin achieved a landslide victory in the March elections. No change in the illiberal tendencies in economic policies is expected. Sanctions are there to stay and the trade reorientation from the West towards China is underway. With growth rates below 2% even in the medium term, the Russian economy will fall further behind its peers.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 146406 | 146675 | 146842 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | -2.5 | -0.2 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 18700 | 18300 | 18600 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -0.8 | 2.2 | 2.1 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 4.9 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 502 | 494 | 594 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 15.5 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -3.4 | -3.7 | -1.5 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 13.1 | 12.9 | 12.6 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 5.0 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 3.5 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 6163 | 29381 | 25408 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 38.5 | 41.9 | 31.0 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2018
Amat Adarov, Mahdi Ghodsi, Domenico M. Nuti and Oliver Reiter
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2018
47 pages including 3 Tables and 27 Figures
RUSSIAN FEDERATION: Falling behind peers on meagre growth
Peter Havlik
in: Riding the Global Growth Wave
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2018, March 2018 , pp. 134-137
Details and Buy