Russia

map Russia
Although the economy declined by 0.7% year on year in Q1 2021, it performed well in April and May, as revealed by the high growth of industrial production (7.6% and 11.8%, respectively, year on year) and the upbeat sentiment indicators. In the first five months, retail sales soared by 10% and ‘paid services to the population’ by 12.5%. This development was fuelled by people spending their accumulated savings, vibrant consumer lending and – to all intents and purposes – largely closed borders (the Russian Sputnik V vaccine has not been recognized by the EU). But inflationary pressures have intensified, too, and are no longer purely supply-side driven: by May, the year-on-year inflation reached 6%. In response, the policy rate has been raised by a combined 1.25 percentage points (pp) since March (to 5.5%), with further hikes likely to follow soon.

On the strength of recent performance, our growth forecast for 2021 has been revised upwards by 0.3 pp, to 3.5%. The economy would grow even more strongly, were it not for the renewed surge in COVID-19 infections that engulfed Russia in June (and which, given the low vaccination rate, is unlikely to subside soon). The newly imposed measures in a number of regions will weaken the pace of recovery in coming months.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201820192020202120222023
Population, 1000 persons146831146765146460...
GDP, real change in %2.82.0-3.03.53.02.6
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)194501961020120...
Gross industrial production, real change in %3.53.4-2.6...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average4.84.65.85.24.94.7
Average gross monthly wages, EUR592660620...
Consumer prices, % p.a.2.94.53.46.24.43.2
Fiscal balance in % of GDP2.91.9-4.0-1.00.51.0
Public debt in % of GDP12.112.417.7...
Current account in % of GDP7.03.92.43.23.63.6
FDI inflow, EUR m7453285488091...
Gross external debt in % of GDP28.329.129.3...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

publication_icon

Monthly Report No. 9/2021

Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Olga Pindyuk and Leon Podkaminer
wiiw Monthly Report No. 9, September 2021
49 pages including 28 Figures

Details and Buy

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RUSSIA: Recession contained at the expense of health outcomes

Vasily Astrov
in: Darkest before the dawn?
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2021, April 2021 , pp. 114-118
Details and Buy


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