Russia
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 145864 | 146714 | 146299 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 5.9 | -1.2 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 2.2 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 24780 | 25420 | 27590 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 6.3 | 0.7 | 4.1 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 4.8 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.4 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 656 | 901 | 812 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 6.7 | 13.8 | 5.9 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 4.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | 0.8 | -1.4 | -2.3 | -1.5 | -1.0 | -0.8 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 15.4 | 14.7 | 14.9 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 6.8 | 10.5 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.4 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 34166 | -37607 | -9284 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 27.7 | 16.7 | 15.4 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
publication_icon
Monthly Report No. 10/2024
Sebastian Leitner, Sandra M. Leitner, Alireza Sabouniha, Sergey Utkin, Zuzana Zavarská and Stella Sophie Zilian
wiiw Monthly Report No. 10, October 2024
57 pages including 28 Figures
publication_icon
Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
With high growth, skyrocketing inflation and unemployment plunging to an all-time low, the economy remained overheated in the first half of 2024. However, recent high-frequency indicators suggest the strong likelihood of a slowdown in the offing. That will be reinforced by the ongoing monetary tightening cycle, with the policy rate already standing at 19% and likely to be hiked even further. The H1 performance has prompted us once again to upgrade our growth forecast for the full year to 3.8%. But thereafter, growth is projected to slip to 2.5% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026, while inflation will return to the 4% target only in 2026.