Russia
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 146714 | 146299 | 146135 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | -1.4 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 26010 | 29410 | 31810 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 0.7 | 4.3 | 4.6 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 4.0 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 901 | 812 | 878 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 13.8 | 5.9 | 8.4 | 9.9 | 5.7 | 4.4 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -1.3 | -2.2 | -1.6 | -1.0 | -0.8 | -0.5 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.4 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 10.4 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.8 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | -37607 | -9284 | -7552 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 16.5 | 15.0 | 13.9 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
publication_icon
Monthly Report No. 3/2025
Vasily Astrov, Simone Maria Grabner, Leon Podkaminer and Robert Stehrer
wiiw Monthly Report No. 3, March 2025
34 pages including 5 Tables and 11 Figures
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
After two years of overheating, the economy is set to cool markedly this year, reflecting primarily the very tight monetary conditions. The abrupt rapprochement with the US initially triggered a wave of euphoria on the financial markets, though more recently this has subsided somewhat. Relative to our winter forecast, our growth projections for 2025 and 2026 have improved, on account of the solid performance so far and the expected easing of US sanctions, respectively. Inflation is likely nearing its peak, which should allow gradual monetary policy relaxation from mid-2025.