Russia
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 146299 | 146135 | . | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 4.1 | 4.9 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 28370 | 30420 | . | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 4.3 | 5.1 | 1.3 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 3.2 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.7 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 812 | 889 | . | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 5.9 | 8.4 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 4.4 | 3.9 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -2.2 | -1.6 | -2.7 | -2.2 | -1.5 | -1.5 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 14.7 | 14.4 | 16.5 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | -9284 | -8636 | . | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 15.2 | 13.8 | 11.0 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
publication_icon
Monthly Report No. 02/2026
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Branimir Jovanović and Olga Pindyuk
wiiw Monthly Report No. 02, February 2026
35 pages including 7 Figures
publication_icon
Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
After two years of economic boom in 2023-2024, in 2025 the economy cooled steadily to reach stagnation by the end of last year. After 1.2% in H1 2025 (year on year), real GDP picked up by a mere 0.6% in Q3 and was probably stagnant in Q4. All in all, growth for the full year slowed to an estimated 0.7%, mostly due to the weakening of domestic demand. In the first 11 months, retail trade turnover increased by 2.5% and the volume of paid services by 2.7% (compared to 8% and 4.3%, respectively, in the same period of 2024), while gross fixed investment rose by only 0.5% in the first nine months (compared to 9% in the same period of 2024). Economic stagnation was also reflected in last year’s downturn in such key sectors as electricity production (-1.1%), rail freight transport (-5.6%) and steel output (-4.6%). Overall industrial production grew by 0.8% in the first 11 months, but that was mostly thanks to the production of weapons and ammunition. The three manufacturing industries with a large share of military production – ‘computers, electronic and optical products’, ‘fabricated metal products except machinery and equipment’ and ‘other transport vehicles and equipment’ – expanded by 13%, 13.9% and 29.5%, respectively, the last of these thanks to a boom in the production of drones