Russia
The Russian economy has returned to growth. The inflation target of 4% has been comfortably met, and the rouble has been appreciating. However, in the absence of reforms, GDP growth will not exceed 2% even in the medium run – lower than the country’s European peers. No major changes in economic policies are expected, as stability at home coupled with external threats is cherished over reform risks. Sanctions and a poor investment climate are here to stay. Higher oil prices are once again serving as both a buffer and a deterrent to reform.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 146406 | 146675 | 146841 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | -2.5 | -0.2 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 17900 | 17000 | 17300 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.2 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 502 | 494 | 594 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 15.5 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -3.4 | -3.7 | -1.5 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 13.1 | 12.9 | 13.0 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 4.9 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 2.4 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 6163 | 29381 | 24702 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 38.5 | 41.9 | 31.1 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
RUSSIAN FEDERATION: Falling behind peers on meagre growth
Peter Havlik
in: Riding the Global Growth Wave
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2018, March 2018 , pp. 134-137
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 11/2017
Amat Adarov, Vasily Astrov, Julian Hinz, Evgenii Monastyrenko and Sandor Richter
wiiw Monthly Report No. 11, November 2017
47 pages including 3 Table and 21 Figures