Russia
Growth in the first quarter of 2019 surprised on the downside and reinforced the impression that the economy is dangerously close to slipping into recession. The main reason for this is the tight fiscal policy which is taking its toll on households’ real incomes. The meagre growth in private consumption is sustained exclusively by borrowing, with obvious sustainability risks. The overall policy mix will remain restrictive going forward, prioritising resilience against western sanctions over growth.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 146675 | 146842 | 146831 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 0.3 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 17500 | 18200 | 19200 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.9 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 5.5 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.4 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 494 | 595 | 588 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 7.1 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 2.9 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -3.7 | -1.5 | 2.9 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 12.9 | 12.6 | 12.1 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 1.9 | 2.1 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 3.9 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 29381 | 25296 | 7453 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 42.0 | 31.0 | 28.3 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Monthly Report No. 6/2019
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Hermine Vidovic and Goran Vuksic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 6, June 2019
27 pages including 24 Tables and 1 Figure
RUSSIA: GDP growth will fall back after an unexpected uptick in 2018
Peter Havlik
in: Moving Into the Slow Lane
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2019, March 2019 , pp. 122-125
Details and Buy