Russia
In the second quarter, the economy shrank by a relatively moderate 8%, and the subsequent rebound has been reasonably strong. However, a recent upsurge in new infections and the currency’s weakening will dampen economic activity in the months to come. In the baseline scenario, GDP is expected to decline by 4.5% this year, with a moderate recovery of 2-2.5% per year projected for 2021-2022.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 146842 | 146831 | 146765 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.3 | -4.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 17840 | 19630 | 19540 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.3 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 5.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 595 | 592 | 660 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 3.6 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 2.8 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -1.5 | 2.9 | 1.9 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 12.6 | 12.0 | 12.3 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 2.0 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 2.3 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 25296 | 7453 | 28548 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 31.1 | 28.1 | 28.9 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
RUSSIA: Economic losses manageable so far, but clouds on the horizon
Vasily Astrov
in: No Quick Recovery in Sight, with Coronavirus Risks Looming Large
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2020, November 2020 , pp. 104-108
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 11/2020
Alexandra Bykova, Branimir Jovanovic, Artem Kochnev and Sergey Markedonov
wiiw Monthly Report No. 11, November 2020
54 pages including 2 Tables and 30 Figures