Russia
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 146460 | 145864 | 146714 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | -2.7 | 5.6 | -2.1 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 19660 | 22570 | 23620 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -2.1 | 6.4 | 0.6 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 5.8 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 623 | 656 | 901 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 3.4 | 6.7 | 13.8 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 3.4 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -4.0 | 0.8 | -1.4 | -3.5 | -3.0 | -2.5 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 17.6 | 15.5 | 14.9 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 2.4 | 6.6 | 10.5 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 2.7 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 8296 | 34166 | -37836 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 29.2 | 27.5 | 16.7 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
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Monthly Report No. 9/2023
Vasily Astrov, Vladislav L. Inozemtsev, Ambre Maucorps and Roman Römisch
wiiw Monthly Report No. 9, September 2023
53 pages including 30 Figures
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: Sailing Through Rough Waters
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2023, April 2023 , pp. I-VI
Details
The economy has, by and large, adjusted to last year’s multiple shocks caused by the war, sanctions and the withdrawal of many foreign firms. After falling by 2.1% in 2022 and by 1.8% in Q1 2023 year on year, GDP growth turned positive in April, when it reached around 3% year on year, according to estimates by the Ministry of Economy. Private spending recovered to the same level as two years ago, while gross industrial output exceeded that level by 2.4%. Nominal and real wages have recorded solid growth on the back of tight labour markets, with the unemployment rate declining to an all-time low of 3.3% in April. Manufacturing has benefited from the sharp upturn in military spending, while the difficulties of travelling abroad have boosted domestic tourism. However, exports of goods declined by 31% in Q1 (in euro terms) on the back of lower oil prices (due not least to the West’s energy sanctions) and sharply reduced gas export volumes. Accordingly, the energy revenues of the federal budget plummeted by half in January-May, and the budget deficit will almost certainly exceed 3% of GDP for the year as a whole – despite some corrective measures, such as the planned introduction of a windfall profit tax. Barring fresh negative shocks, economic growth is projected to reach around 1% this year, to be followed by a modest acceleration to 1.5% in 2024-2025.