Russia

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Last year, the economy grew by an estimated 3.5%, following a slump of 1.2% in 2022 (according to newly revised data). The economy proved resilient to Western sanctions, thanks to the strong macro fundamentals (such as low public and foreign debt) and the reorientation of trade flows to China and other countries that have not joined in the sanctions. The main drivers of the recovery have been war-related industrial production and government investment, which have contributed 60% to manufacturing growth and 40% to the growth of GDP, according to some estimates. On a negative note, fiscal expansion pushed the federal budget into a deficit that reached 1.9% of GDP last year; this is quite a novelty for Russia, which prior to the war had a track record of mostly budget surpluses. Besides, economic recovery has increasingly been facing capacity constraints, with most companies reporting acute and rising labour shortages. Nominal wages soared by 17.2% year on year in October, and inflation climbed to 7.4% at the end of 2023, fuelled in part by depreciation of the rouble, which lost around 30% of its value against the main currencies in the course of the year. In response to these clear signs of overheating, the central bank has hiked the policy rate – by a combined 8.5 percentage points since mid-2023 – to 16%. Tight financial conditions and mounting capacity constraints will likely keep growth subdued at 1.5% in 2024, while inflation will subside to around 5% by the end of the year, thereby allowing gradual monetary policy relaxation.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202120222023202420252026
Population, 1000 persons145864146714146326...
GDP, real change in %5.9-1.23.61.51.71.9
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)2265023910....
Gross industrial production, real change in %6.30.6....
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average4.83.93.22.92.92.9
Average gross monthly wages, EUR656901....
Consumer prices, % p.a.6.713.85.96.74.23.6
Fiscal balance in % of GDP0.8-1.4-1.0-0.7-0.5-0.5
Public debt in % of GDP15.414.7....
Current account in % of GDP6.610.52.53.43.02.6
FDI inflow, EUR m34166-37606....
Gross external debt in % of GDP27.416.615.9...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 1/2024

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2024
50 pages including 5 Tables and 18 Figures

Details

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RUSSIA: Resisting depreciation pressures

Vasily Astrov
in: Beneath the Veneer of Calm
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2023, October 2023 , pp. 116-120
Details and Buy


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