Russia
On the strength of recent performance, our growth forecast for 2021 has been revised upwards by 0.3 pp, to 3.5%. The economy would grow even more strongly, were it not for the renewed surge in COVID-19 infections that engulfed Russia in June (and which, given the low vaccination rate, is unlikely to subside soon). The newly imposed measures in a number of regions will weaken the pace of recovery in coming months.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 146831 | 146765 | 146460 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 2.8 | 2.0 | -3.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 2.6 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 19450 | 19610 | 20120 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 3.5 | 3.4 | -2.6 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 4.8 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 4.7 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 592 | 660 | 620 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 3.2 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | 2.9 | 1.9 | -4.0 | -1.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 12.1 | 12.4 | 17.7 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 7.0 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 3.6 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 7453 | 28548 | 8091 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 28.3 | 29.1 | 29.3 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
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Monthly Report No. 9/2021
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Olga Pindyuk and Leon Podkaminer
wiiw Monthly Report No. 9, September 2021
49 pages including 28 Figures
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RUSSIA: Recession contained at the expense of health outcomes
Vasily Astrov
in: Darkest before the dawn?
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2021, April 2021 , pp. 114-118
Details and Buy
Although the economy declined by 0.7% year on year in Q1 2021, it performed well in April and May, as revealed by the high growth of industrial production (7.6% and 11.8%, respectively, year on year) and the upbeat sentiment indicators. In the first five months, retail sales soared by 10% and ‘paid services to the population’ by 12.5%. This development was fuelled by people spending their accumulated savings, vibrant consumer lending and – to all intents and purposes – largely closed borders (the Russian Sputnik V vaccine has not been recognized by the EU). But inflationary pressures have intensified, too, and are no longer purely supply-side driven: by May, the year-on-year inflation reached 6%. In response, the policy rate has been raised by a combined 1.25 percentage points (pp) since March (to 5.5%), with further hikes likely to follow soon. On the strength of recent performance, our growth forecast for 2021 has been revised upwards by 0.3 pp, to 3.5%. The economy would grow even more strongly, were it not for the renewed surge in COVID-19 infections that engulfed Russia in June (and which, given the low vaccination rate, is unlikely to subside soon). The newly imposed measures in a number of regions will weaken the pace of recovery in coming months.