Russia
Growth in the first half of the year decelerated sharply, largely on account of weaker investment activity and declining net exports. Private consumption remains weak, constrained not least by the tight fiscal policy, although monetary policy has been softened in response to recent disinflation. Even with the planned start of infrastructure projects and increased social spending, it is difficult to see the Russian economy growing above 2% p.a. in the medium term.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 146675 | 146842 | 146831 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 0.3 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 17500 | 18200 | 19500 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.9 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 5.5 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.4 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 494 | 595 | 592 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 7.1 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 2.9 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -3.7 | -1.5 | 2.9 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 12.9 | 12.6 | 12.1 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 1.9 | 2.1 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 6.0 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 29381 | 25296 | 7453 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 42.0 | 31.0 | 28.3 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
RUSSIA: Self-inflicted stagnation
Vasily Astrov
in: Braced for Fallout from Global Slowdown
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2019, November 2019 , pp. 105-109
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 6/2019
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Hermine Vidovic and Goran Vuksic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 6, June 2019
27 pages including 24 Tables and 1 Figure