Russia
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 146714 | 146299 | 146135 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | -1.4 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 25660 | 28720 | 30240 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 0.7 | 4.3 | 5.6 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 4.0 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 901 | 812 | 889 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 13.7 | 5.9 | 8.4 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 4.4 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -1.3 | -2.2 | -1.6 | -2.5 | -1.5 | -1.2 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.4 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 10.4 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | -37607 | -9284 | -8809 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 16.5 | 15.0 | 13.8 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
publication_icon
Monthly Report No. 9/2025
Vasily Astrov, Georg Fischer and Grzegorz W. Kolodko
wiiw Monthly Report No. 9, September 2025
53 pages including 1 Table, 25 Figures and 2 Boxes
publication_icon
Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
Thanks to extremely tight monetary policy, inflation has largely been brought under control. However, this success has come at the cost of weakening domestic demand and stalling GDP growth. Stagnation, moderate oil prices and a strong rouble have all put government revenue under pressure, which has prompted further tax hikes, including in the VAT rate. After a disappointing 1.2% this year, growth is expected to accelerate slightly, to 1.4% and 1.5% in 2026 and 2027, respectively, with a further easing of monetary policy providing modest support to consumption.