Russia
The Russian economy is facing a double shock, with the Coronavirus crisis and collapsing oil prices. As a result, budget and current account surpluses are likely to be things of the past. Real GDP is expected to drop by 7% in 2020 and to recover only modestly next year. The fiscal stimulus enacted so far is only 2.8% of GDP, while monetary policy easing is unlikely to have much effect, given the anaemic demand for credit.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 146842 | 146831 | 146765 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.3 | -7.0 | 1.5 | . |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 18100 | 19900 | 20300 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 2.1 | 3.5 | 2.3 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 7.0 | 6.5 | . |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 595 | 592 | 660 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 3.6 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 3.6 | . |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -1.5 | 2.9 | 1.9 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 12.6 | 12.0 | 12.3 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 2.0 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 0.0 | 1.0 | . |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 25296 | 7453 | 28548 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 31.1 | 28.1 | 28.9 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Due to the unusually high level of uncertainty caused by COVID-19, we only present forecasts for 2020-2021.
Monthly Report No. 5/2020
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 5, May 2020
96 pages including 27 Tables and 39 Figures
RUSSIA: A shift to pro-growth policies
Vasily Astrov
in: Uncertainty in Turbulent Times
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2020, March 2020 , pp. 131-134
Details and Buy