Russia
GDP growth for 2018 surprised everybody. Net exports and investments were the main drivers, the record current account surplus and a low inflation among the cheerful passengers. But neither the pace of growth nor the size of the current account surplus is sustainable and will be maintained. Still, the accumulated reserves and cautious economic policies will serve as a buffer mitigating external risks. Stability and weak growth will thus characterise Russian developments in the coming years.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 146675 | 146842 | 146831 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 0.3 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 18000 | 18400 | 19000 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.9 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 5.5 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.7 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 494 | 595 | 588 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 7.1 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -3.7 | -1.5 | 2.9 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 12.9 | 12.6 | 12.1 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 1.9 | 2.1 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.7 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 29381 | 25296 | 7480 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 42.0 | 31.0 | 28.2 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Monthly Report No. 4/2019
Amat Adarov, Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova and Olga Pindyuk
wiiw Monthly Report No. 4, April 2019
45 pages including 32 Figures
RUSSIA: GDP growth will fall back after an unexpected uptick in 2018
Peter Havlik
in: Moving Into the Slow Lane
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2019, March 2019 , pp. 122-125
Details and Buy