Russia
Few restrictions in response to the second wave of the pandemic have resulted in a sharp rise in infections and deaths, but have also mitigated the extent of economic downturn. GDP declined by only 3.1% last year, of which 1 pp was due to oil production cuts. In the baseline scenario, we project a recovery of 3.2% this year, while growth should gradually revert to the long-term average of around 2% in the years thereafter.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 146831 | 146765 | 146460 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 2.8 | 2.0 | -3.0 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 2.3 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 19450 | 19600 | 20330 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 3.5 | 3.4 | -2.6 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 4.8 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 5.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 592 | 660 | 620 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 3.2 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | 2.9 | 1.9 | -4.0 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 12.1 | 12.4 | 17.7 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 7.0 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 3.6 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 7453 | 28548 | 7581 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 28.3 | 29.1 | 29.4 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
RUSSIA: Recession contained at the expense of health outcomes
Vasily Astrov
in: Darkest before the dawn?
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2021, April 2021 , pp. 114-118
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 1/2021
Dimitrios Exadaktylos, Mahdi Ghodsi, Julia Grübler, Tatiana Romanova and Roman Stöllinger
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2021
50 pages including 2 Tables and 30 Figures