Russia

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With high growth, skyrocketing inflation and unemployment plunging to an all-time low, the economy remained overheated in the first half of 2024. However, recent high-frequency indicators suggest the strong likelihood of a slowdown in the offing. That will be reinforced by the ongoing monetary tightening cycle, with the policy rate already standing at 19% and likely to be hiked even further. The H1 performance has prompted us once again to upgrade our growth forecast for the full year to 3.8%. But thereafter, growth is projected to slip to 2.5% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026, while inflation will return to the 4% target only in 2026.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202120222023202420252026
Population, 1000 persons145864146714146299...
GDP, real change in %5.9-1.23.63.82.52.2
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)247802542027590...
Gross industrial production, real change in %6.30.74.1...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average4.83.93.22.62.52.4
Average gross monthly wages, EUR656901812...
Consumer prices, % p.a.6.713.85.98.15.54.0
Fiscal balance in % of GDP0.8-1.4-2.3-1.5-1.0-0.8
Public debt in % of GDP15.414.714.9...
Current account in % of GDP6.810.52.53.43.53.4
FDI inflow, EUR m34166-37607-9284...
Gross external debt in % of GDP27.716.715.4...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 10/2024

Sebastian Leitner, Sandra M. Leitner, Alireza Sabouniha, Sergey Utkin, Zuzana Zavarská and Stella Sophie Zilian
wiiw Monthly Report No. 10, October 2024
57 pages including 28 Figures

Details

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Executive summary

Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
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