Croatia

map Croatia
In Q1 2021, GDP contracted by only 0.7% year on year, while retail sales increased by some 12%. Croatia also recorded a 58% year-on-year increase in overnight tourist stays from the beginning of 2021 until June, signalling that the country is well on the road to economic recovery. This is largely thanks to government measures, such as the co-financing of COVID-19 testing and the vaccination of some 60% of workers in the tourist industry by June. Still, any economic rebound in 2021 is dependent on epidemiological developments in the EU, as Germany, Austria and Italy are among Croatia’s most important economic partners.

Croatia will likely enjoy a bountiful tourist season this year, with revenue from tourism at around 70% of pre-pandemic levels. Because of this, domestic demand and private consumption will see robust recovery in Q2 and Q3 2021. Croatia will also likely benefit from some EUR 6.5bn (equivalent to 13.2% of Croatia’s 2020 GDP) from the EU’s Recovery and Resilience Facility. Owing to an increase in energy prices and persistent pandemic-related supply-chain disruptions, we expect this year’s inflation to pick up to around 1.6%. Stronger investments and an increase in service exports have led us to raise our growth forecast to 5.1% in 2021 (from 4.5%).
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201820192020202120222023
Population, 1000 persons409140674047...
GDP, real change in %2.82.9-8.05.15.34.0
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)193502031019100...
Gross industrial production, real change in %-1.00.6-2.7...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average8.56.67.57.06.86.8
Average gross monthly wages, EUR113911821223...
Consumer prices, % p.a.1.60.80.01.61.51.5
Fiscal balance in % of GDP0.20.3-7.4-4.0-3.0-2.5
Public debt in % of GDP74.372.888.7...
Current account in % of GDP1.83.0-0.40.60.50.6
FDI inflow, EUR m107534941183...
Gross external debt in % of GDP82.074.381.3...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2021

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanovic, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2021
42 pages including 4 Tables and 15 Figures

Details

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CROATIA: EU funds will support recovery

Bernd Christoph Ströhm
in: Darkest before the dawn?
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2021, April 2021 , pp. 60-63
Details and Buy


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