Croatia
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 3857 | 3856 | 3850 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 7.3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.9 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 25880 | 28970 | 30470 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 1.2 | -0.3 | -1.9 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 6.8 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.8 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 1380 | 1584 | 1821 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 10.7 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2.4 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | 0.1 | -0.9 | -2.3 | -1.2 | -1.2 | -1.1 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 68.5 | 61.8 | 60.0 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -3.2 | 0.7 | -1.2 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 3727 | 3088 | 4302 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 73.8 | 78.0 | 65.7 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
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Monthly Report No. 1/2025
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Maciej J. Grodzicki, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2025
50 pages including 6 Tables and 13 Figures
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
We estimate that Croatia’s GDP growth reached 3.5% in 2024, driven by the country’s accession to the EU’s border-free Schengen zone and the euro area – a move that has particularly supported tourism. According to the Croatian Ministry of Tourism, the country witnessed a 4% rise in tourist arrivals in 2024 (to over 21m people) and a 1% increase in overnight stays (to around 109m). EU funds also boosted investment activity in 2024. So far, Croatia has received EUR 4.5bn of Recovery and Resilience Facility funds, comprising five grants and one loan instalment. More than EUR 5.5bn have yet to be disbursed by the end of 2026. All this will continue to stimulate investment in the coming years. Nevertheless, we anticipate a slight deceleration in growth – to 3.1% in 2025 and 3% in 2026 – as domestic demand moderates and real income growth slackens (both nominal and real wages are expected to grow more slowly than in the past two years). Inflation averaged 4% in 2024 and will gradually decline to 3% in 2025, due to an easing of the pressure on energy and commodity prices; nevertheless, it will remain above the euro area target, owing to the more heated economy. Overall, Croatia will continue to have one of the euro area’s top-performing economies in 2025. However, weak growth across the euro area, combined with a shortage of skilled workers (partly due to migration to other EU member states), poses a downside risk and an obstacle to higher GDP growth.