Croatia

map Croatia
Croatia’s economy grew by 7% year on year in Q1 2022, indicating a further recovery from the COVID 19 pandemic. Nevertheless, due to increases in energy and basic goods prices Croatia will see record levels of inflation in 2022, as seen in May, when inflation accelerated to 10.8% year on year. Persisting global supply-chain disruptions and higher energy prices will exert upward pressure on inflation to an average of 8.2% in 2022 as a whole. Soaring inflation will negatively affect household spending and tourist bookings from EU countries such as Germany, Austria or Italy for the country’s vital summer season, which is why we have slightly revised Croatia’s 2022 GDP growth forecast to 3.3%, down from 3.5% previously. Croatia’s current account surplus is projected to rise to 0.6% of GDP and the unemployment rate will remain at some 7.2% – above pre-COVID levels. Surging inflation and energy prices will put pressure on the country’s budget expenditure side. Nevertheless, the government has so far managed to contain public debt thanks to the country’s improved fiscal position and stellar economic recovery in 2021. In June the European Commission also confirmed that Croatia had met all the criteria to adopt the euro in January 2023. We expect that this year’s budget deficit will widen 3.3% of GDP, but that the public debt/GDP ratio will fall to around 78%.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201920202021202220232024
Population, 1000 persons406740473958...
GDP, real change in %3.5-8.110.23.33.53.6
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)207701923022540...
Gross industrial production, real change in %0.6-2.76.3...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average6.67.57.67.27.06.9
Average gross monthly wages, EUR118212231275...
Consumer prices, % p.a.0.80.02.78.23.53.0
Fiscal balance in % of GDP0.2-7.3-2.9-3.3-2.5-2.3
Public debt in % of GDP71.187.379.8...
Current account in % of GDP3.0-0.13.20.60.81.0
FDI inflow, EUR m347810463436...
Gross external debt in % of GDP72.579.878.0...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2022

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Bernhard Moshammer, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Nina Vujanović, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2022
58 pages including 4 Tables and 21 Figures

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Executive summary

Vasily Astrov
in: Overshadowed by War and Sanctions
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2022, April 2022 , pp. I-VII
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