Croatia
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 3949 | 3857 | 3856 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 13.0 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 3.0 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 23010 | 25970 | 28430 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 6.3 | 1.2 | -0.3 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 7.6 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 1275 | 1380 | 1584 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 2.7 | 10.7 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 2.5 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -2.5 | 0.1 | -0.7 | -2.0 | -1.4 | -1.2 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 77.5 | 67.8 | 63.0 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 1.0 | -2.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 3952 | 3408 | 2715 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 80.2 | 72.9 | 83.7 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2024
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2024
45 pages including 5 Tables and 12 Figures
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
Croatia’s GDP expanded by 3.9% year on year in Q1 2024. The country’s accession to the EU’s border-free Schengen Area and the euro area is providing a boost to tourism, with EU-related funds further supporting investment activity. In Q1 2024, Croatia already recorded over 15% more tourist arrivals and overnight stays than in the same period last year. We are thus upgrading our GDP growth for 2024 to 3%. Thanks to softer pressures from energy and commodity prices, inflation will continue to decline gradually; but upward pressure from rising wages will mean it remains above the euro area target, averaging 3.7% in 2024. We expect nominal and real gross wages in Croatia to continue to grow in 2024, albeit more slowly than in 2023. The public-sector unions signed a collective-bargaining agreement in March 2024, which will also result in pay increases for public employees. The lack of skilled workers remains an issue for the economy and an obstacle to higher GDP growth over the medium term. On a political note: the ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) party, led by Prime Minister Plenković, won the parliamentary election in April 2024 and has managed to form a new governing coalition with the right-wing Homeland Movement (DP). This will ensure that there are no major changes in terms of economic policies in the forthcoming period.