Croatia

map Croatia
Economic growth is expected to moderate to below 3% over the forecast horizon but will stay above the euro-area average. GDP growth has slowed markedly: from 3.9% year on year in Q4 2025 to 2.2% in Q1 2026 – the most lackadaisical growth seen since Q4 2020. The slowdown was primarily driven by weaker export growth and slower fixed investment growth. By contrast, private consumption has remained steady. Growth momentum is likely to firm up somewhat from Q2 onwards, supported by measures to cap the price of fuel, the absorption of EU funds and a potential redirection of tourism flows toward Croatia, amid instability in the Middle East.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202320242025202620272028
Population, 1000 persons385638683868...
GDP, real change in %3.83.83.42.62.72.8
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)298503105032370...
Gross industrial production, real change in %-0.3-1.93.3...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average6.15.04.94.84.84.9
Average gross monthly wages, EUR158418212016...
Consumer prices, % p.a.8.44.04.44.62.92.6
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-1.1-2.3-3.0-3.2-2.9-2.5
Public debt in % of GDP60.957.456.3...
Current account in % of GDP0.1-2.2-3.5-3.5-3.4-3.3
FDI inflow, EUR m325841822630...
Gross external debt in % of GDP76.966.466.9...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2026

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Ioannis Gutzianas, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Biljana Jovanovikj, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Isilda Mara, Michał Możdżeń, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Marina Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2026
52 pages including 5 Tables

Details

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Executive summary

Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
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