Ukraine
The landslide victory of Vladimir Zelensky in the presidential elections has caused an increase in political uncertainty in Ukraine. The new president has sent positive signals to investors by reaffirming his commitment to cooperate with the IMF and conduct pro-EU policies. After slowing down in 2019, economic growth will accelerate during 2020-2021 to 3% and 3.5% respectively, primarily on the back of household final consumption. Fast consumer credit growth is becoming a significant risk factor.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 42673 | 42485 | 42270 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 2.4 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 3.5 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 6000 | 6100 | 6500 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 2.8 | 0.4 | 1.6 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 9.3 | 9.5 | 8.8 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 7.8 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 183 | 237 | 276 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 13.9 | 14.4 | 10.9 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 5.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -2.3 | -1.4 | -1.9 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 80.9 | 71.8 | 60.9 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -1.4 | -2.2 | -3.3 | -3.3 | -3.3 | -3.0 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 3108 | 2506 | 2095 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 127.7 | 97.3 | 83.4 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Monthly Report No. 6/2019
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Hermine Vidovic and Goran Vuksic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 6, June 2019
27 pages including 24 Tables and 1 Figure
UKRAINE: Growth slowdown on the horizon
Vasily Astrov
in: Moving Into the Slow Lane
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2019, March 2019 , pp. 149-152
Details and Buy