Ukraine
We have revised our GDP forecast for 2021 upwards – to 4.3% – owing to faster growth in private consumption and higher prices for key export commodities. In 2022-2023, economic growth will slow to 3.5%, as the low base will no longer be a factor. Inflation will subside as global commodity prices stabilise. Cooperation with the IMF remains frozen, and failure to reinvigorate it poses a significant risk to financial stability. The slow roll-out of the COVID-19 vaccination campaign means that the next wave of the pandemic could present another major risk to economic recovery.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 42270 | 42028 | 41745 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 3.5 | 3.2 | -4.0 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 8570 | 8990 | 8820 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 3.0 | -0.5 | -4.5 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 8.8 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 276 | 363 | 376 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 10.9 | 7.9 | 2.7 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 5.5 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -1.9 | -2.2 | -5.4 | -5.0 | -3.0 | -2.5 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 60.9 | 50.2 | 60.9 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -4.9 | -2.7 | 3.4 | 0.5 | -1.0 | -3.0 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 3872 | 5207 | 215 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 83.4 | 79.4 | 75.1 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2021
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanovic, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2021
42 pages including 4 Tables and 15 Figures
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UKRAINE: Good luck can get you only so far
Olga Pindyuk
in: Darkest before the dawn?
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2021, April 2021 , pp. 136-139
Details and Buy
In Q1 2021, real GDP decreased by 2.2% year on year due to the negative contribution of net exports and the ongoing investment decline. Although in nominal USD terms exports still grew at a double-digit rate, the fall in real exports deepened, mainly because of last year’s poor harvests. Household final expenditure increased by 4.4% year on year on the back of high wage growth, an increase in pensions and rising remittances. The retail trade dynamics in May (+22.7% year on year in real terms) indicates a further acceleration in consumer spending. Inflation has increased significantly (to 9.5% year on year in May), mostly on the back of global commodity prices. We have revised our GDP forecast for 2021 upwards – to 4.3% – owing to faster growth in private consumption and higher prices for key export commodities. In 2022-2023, economic growth will slow to 3.5%, as the low base will no longer be a factor. Inflation will subside as global commodity prices stabilise. Cooperation with the IMF remains frozen, and failure to reinvigorate it poses a significant risk to financial stability. The slow roll-out of the COVID-19 vaccination campaign means that the next wave of the pandemic could present another major risk to economic recovery.