Ukraine

map Ukraine
In Q1 2021, real GDP decreased by 2.2% year on year due to the negative contribution of net exports and the ongoing investment decline. Although in nominal USD terms exports still grew at a double-digit rate, the fall in real exports deepened, mainly because of last year’s poor harvests. Household final expenditure increased by 4.4% year on year on the back of high wage growth, an increase in pensions and rising remittances. The retail trade dynamics in May (+22.7% year on year in real terms) indicates a further acceleration in consumer spending. Inflation has increased significantly (to 9.5% year on year in May), mostly on the back of global commodity prices.

We have revised our GDP forecast for 2021 upwards – to 4.3% – owing to faster growth in private consumption and higher prices for key export commodities. In 2022-2023, economic growth will slow to 3.5%, as the low base will no longer be a factor. Inflation will subside as global commodity prices stabilise. Cooperation with the IMF remains frozen, and failure to reinvigorate it poses a significant risk to financial stability. The slow roll-out of the COVID-19 vaccination campaign means that the next wave of the pandemic could present another major risk to economic recovery.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201820192020202120222023
Population, 1000 persons422704202841745...
GDP, real change in %3.53.2-4.04.33.53.5
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)857089908820...
Gross industrial production, real change in %3.0-0.5-4.5...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average8.88.29.59.08.08.0
Average gross monthly wages, EUR276363376...
Consumer prices, % p.a.10.97.92.78.36.05.5
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-1.9-2.2-5.4-5.0-3.0-2.5
Public debt in % of GDP60.950.260.9...
Current account in % of GDP-4.9-2.73.40.5-1.0-3.0
FDI inflow, EUR m38725207215...
Gross external debt in % of GDP83.479.475.1...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

publication_icon

Monthly Report No. 7-8/2021

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanovic, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2021
42 pages including 4 Tables and 15 Figures

Details

publication_icon

UKRAINE: Good luck can get you only so far

Olga Pindyuk
in: Darkest before the dawn?
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2021, April 2021 , pp. 136-139
Details and Buy


top