Ukraine
Progress in the peace negotiations with Russia and the reform agenda of the new government sent strong positive signals to investors. If the reforms are implemented the economy will receive a significant boost, though it will likely only be felt in the medium run. During 2019-2021, GDP growth will remain rather moderate at around 3% per annum. The major negative risk to the forecast is inability of the government to shake off the influence of oligarchs.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 42673 | 42485 | 42270 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 2.4 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 3.3 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 6000 | 6100 | 6500 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 2.8 | 0.4 | 1.6 | -1.8 | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 9.3 | 9.5 | 8.8 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 7.8 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 183 | 237 | 276 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 13.9 | 14.4 | 10.9 | 7.9 | 6.0 | 5.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -2.3 | -1.4 | -1.9 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 80.9 | 71.8 | 60.9 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -1.4 | -2.2 | -3.3 | -2.6 | -3.0 | -3.5 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 3108 | 2506 | 2095 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 127.7 | 97.3 | 83.4 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Monthly Report No. 11/2019
Vasily Astrov, Mahdi Ghodsi, Mario Holzner, David Pichler and Leon Podkaminer
wiiw Monthly Report No. 11, November 2019
44 pages including 1 Table and 27 Figures
UKRAINE: New reforms provide reason for optimism
Olga Pindyuk
in: Braced for Fallout from Global Slowdown
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2019, November 2019 , pp. 127-130
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