Ukraine
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 41378 | 35000 | 36700 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 3.4 | -28.8 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 4.6 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 9470 | 8580 | 8760 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 1.9 | -36.7 | 6.0 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 9.9 | 25.0 | 20.0 | 15.0 | 10.0 | 9.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 434 | 437 | 441 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 9.4 | 20.2 | 12.9 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -3.5 | -16.1 | -20.3 | -17.0 | -15.0 | -12.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 49.0 | 77.8 | 84.4 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -1.9 | 4.9 | -5.2 | -4.3 | -4.7 | -6.4 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 6717 | 235 | 4007 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 67.8 | 79.7 | 88.0 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
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Monthly Report No. 1/2024
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2024
50 pages including 5 Tables and 18 Figures
GDP growth exceeded 5% in 2023, thanks to the resilience of the economy under war conditions and ample financial and military aid from the West. The establishment of a new shipping route in the Black Sea helped Ukraine partly offset the effects of the border blockade by Poland. However, friction has recently surfaced over the provision of military and financial assistance to Ukraine, and that could hamper further recovery of the economy in 2024. Economic growth will accelerate in 2025-2026, conditional on a reduction in security risks and an expansion of the reconstruction efforts. Downside risks to the forecast have increased: top among these is the risk that Ukraine could lose the war, due to inadequate support from the West.