Ukraine
Progress in the peace negotiations with Russia and the reform agenda of the new government sent strong positive signals to investors. If the reforms are implemented the economy will receive a significant boost, though it will likely only be felt in the medium run. During 2019-2021, GDP growth will remain rather moderate at around 3% per annum. The major negative risk to the forecast is inability of the government to shake off the influence of oligarchs.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 42673 | 42485 | 42270 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 2.4 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 3.3 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 6000 | 6100 | 6500 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 2.8 | 0.4 | 1.6 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 9.3 | 9.5 | 8.8 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 7.8 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 183 | 237 | 276 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 13.9 | 14.4 | 10.9 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -2.3 | -1.4 | -1.9 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 80.9 | 71.8 | 60.9 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -1.4 | -2.2 | -3.3 | -2.6 | -3.0 | -3.5 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 3108 | 2506 | 2095 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 127.7 | 97.3 | 83.4 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
UKRAINE: New reforms provide reason for optimism
Olga Pindyuk
in: Braced for Fallout from Global Slowdown
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2019, November 2019 , pp. 127-130
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 6/2019
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Hermine Vidovic and Goran Vuksic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 6, June 2019
27 pages including 24 Tables and 1 Figure