Ukraine

map Ukraine
Economic growth in 2023 exceeded expectations to reach an estimated 5.5%. After Russia withdrew from the Black Sea Grain Initiative in mid-2023, Ukraine managed to establish new maritime routes for its exports. Thanks to these, by December 2023 the volume of exports of agricultural products by sea had reached its highest level since the start of the all-out invasion by Russia. Inflation slowed significantly through 2023, reaching 5.1% year on year in December 2023; meanwhile the country’s forex reserves increased by 42% over the course of the year. However, this macro-financial stability – remarkable for a country at war – has been highly dependent on foreign financial aid; accordingly, the difficulties that have emerged recently in securing aid for 2024-2025 have dented consumer and business confidence. The decision by the European Council on 14 December to open accession negotiations with Ukraine is a strong, positive signal for the country; but it will yield no significant economic benefits in the short run, so long as the war continues to rage. Due to the negative external factors, economic growth will slow down in 2024. In 2025-2026, we expect the recovery of the Ukrainian economy to accelerate – provided the West continues its military and financial support.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202120222023202420252026
Population, 1000 persons4137835000....
GDP, real change in %3.4-28.85.53.04.06.0
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)94708410....
Gross industrial production, real change in %1.9-36.7....
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average9.925.020.015.013.010.0
Average gross monthly wages, EUR434437....
Consumer prices, % p.a.9.420.212.98.06.55.5
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-3.5-16.1-27.0-25.0-20.0-17.0
Public debt in % of GDP49.077.8....
Current account in % of GDP-1.94.9-4.0-5.0-5.5-5.0
FDI inflow, EUR m6717235....
Gross external debt in % of GDP67.879.7....


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 1/2024

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2024
50 pages including 5 Tables and 18 Figures

Details

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UKRAINE: Economy showing resilience in wartime

Olga Pindyuk
in: Beneath the Veneer of Calm
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2023, October 2023 , pp. 137-140
Details and Buy


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