Ukraine
After a sharp contraction in the second quarter of 2020, the Ukrainian economy has started to recover. We expect economic growth to return in 2021-2022, but to be fragile and subject to many downside risks. The coronavirus pandemic and the inability of the government to tackle corruption represent major threats to the economy in the future.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 42485 | 42270 | 42028 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 2.5 | 3.4 | 3.2 | -5.0 | 2.0 | 3.6 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 8130 | 8310 | 8720 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 1.1 | 3.0 | -0.5 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 9.5 | 8.8 | 8.2 | 10.0 | 8.5 | 8.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 237 | 276 | 363 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 14.4 | 10.9 | 7.9 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 4.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -1.4 | -1.9 | -2.2 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 71.8 | 60.9 | 50.3 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -3.1 | -4.9 | -2.7 | 3.6 | -0.6 | -2.9 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 3473 | 3872 | 5207 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 97.3 | 83.4 | 79.5 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
UKRAINE: Fragile recovery in the face of growing risks
Olga Pindyuk
in: No Quick Recovery in Sight, with Coronavirus Risks Looming Large
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2020, November 2020 , pp. 125-128
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 5/2020
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 5, May 2020
96 pages including 27 Tables and 39 Figures