Ukraine
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 36700 | 37000 | 37000 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 3.4 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 11010 | 11330 | 11860 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 6.8 | 4.7 | -1.7 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 20.0 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 11.0 | 9.0 | 7.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 441 | 494 | 551 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 12.9 | 6.5 | 12.7 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 6.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -20.1 | -17.6 | -18.6 | -18.0 | -15.0 | -14.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 83.3 | 91.1 | 101.2 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -5.9 | -8.9 | -15.6 | -17.6 | -18.9 | -20.2 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 4136 | 3674 | 1438 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 86.8 | 98.1 | 106.0 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
publication_icon
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2026
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Ioannis Gutzianas, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Biljana Jovanovikj, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Isilda Mara, Michał Możdżeń, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Marina Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2026
52 pages including 5 Tables
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
Economic growth will slow down in 2026 but is expected to accelerate in 2027-2028. Economic growth will slow in 2026 but is expected to pick up again in 2027-2028. In Q1 2026, the Ukrainian economy contracted by 0.5% year on year, mainly due to the significant destruction of energy-sector infrastructure by Russia’s missile attacks and the resultant electricity shortages during what was a harsh winter. A rapid growth in imports due to the higher energy prices caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has also dragged the economy down. However, growth is expected to pick up during H2 2026 and to reach 1% for the whole year – supported by a better performance by the agricultural sector, stronger exports and fiscal support channelled to reconstruction projects and defence investment. In 2027-2028, growth is expected to accelerate to 2.5% and 3.5% respectively, on the back of stronger investment in reconstruction and robust consumption dynamics supported by the tight labour market. This forecast is, of course, dependent on the de-escalation of Russia’s war in Ukraine in the coming years and progress toward a resolution of the conflict that is favourable to Ukraine.