Ukraine

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Economic recovery in 2021 will be slower than expected, with GDP growing by 3.8% in annual terms. Private consumption will remain the main driver of growth throughout the forecast period. The recent acceleration in inflation is only temporary: it will slow down in 2022-2023. Any further delays to IMF funding disbursements would constitute a major risk to growth.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201820192020202120222023
Population, 1000 persons422704202841745...
GDP, real change in %3.53.2-4.03.83.63.5
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)857089908820...
Gross industrial production, real change in %3.0-0.5-4.5...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average8.88.29.59.08.08.0
Average gross monthly wages, EUR276363376...
Consumer prices, % p.a.10.97.92.79.36.05.5
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-1.9-2.2-5.4-5.0-3.0-2.0
Public debt in % of GDP60.950.260.9...
Current account in % of GDP-4.9-2.73.4-0.9-2.4-3.0
FDI inflow, EUR m38725207215...
Gross external debt in % of GDP83.479.475.1...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Executive summary

Vasily Astrov
in: Recovery Beating Expectations
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2021, October 2021 , pp. I-VI
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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2021

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2021
42 pages including 4 Tables and 15 Figures

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