Ukraine
Thanks to the booming domestic demand, economic growth should exceed 3% this year but will likely decelerate somewhat in 2019 due to recent monetary policy tightening. In the face of a less supportive global environment, Ukraine has agreed on a new IMF loan, which should ensure macroeconomic stability at least in the short term. However, the social impact of the related recent hike in gas tariffs may prove politically costly for the authorities ahead of the March 2019 presidential elections.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 42673 | 42485 | 42270 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 2.4 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 2.0 | . |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 6000 | 6100 | 6400 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 2.8 | 0.4 | 1.6 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 9.3 | 9.5 | 8.8 | 8.5 | 8.3 | . |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 183 | 237 | 276 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 13.9 | 14.4 | 10.9 | 8.9 | 5.2 | . |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -2.3 | -1.4 | -1.9 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 80.9 | 71.8 | 62.0 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -1.4 | -2.2 | -3.6 | -3.1 | -4.4 | . |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 3108 | 2506 | 2107 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 127.7 | 97.3 | 90.0 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
UKRAINE: Lifeline from the IMF ahead of the elections
Vasily Astrov
in: Strong Growth Amid Increased Negative Risks
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2018, November 2018 , pp. 142-146
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 10/2018
Philipp Heimberger, Leon Podkaminer and Sandor Richter
wiiw Monthly Report No. 10, October 2018
46 pages including 1 Tables and 11 Figures