Ukraine

map Ukraine
It is estimated that Ukraine’s economy will grow by only 2% this year, primarily because of its poor export performance following last year’s bad harvest. Inflation is declining, thanks to a tight monetary policy and a stable exchange rate. As the war is now expected to last longer than was previously thought, we have downgraded our GDP forecast for the next two years. Needless to say, the forecast is subject to very high levels of uncertainty, due to unpredictability in how the war develops and in the availability of external aid.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202320242025202620272028
Population, 1000 persons3670037000....
GDP, real change in %5.53.22.02.53.54.0
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)1101011330....
Gross industrial production, real change in %6.84.6-2.4...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average20.014.012.010.09.07.0
Average gross monthly wages, EUR441494....
Consumer prices, % p.a.12.96.512.78.07.06.0
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-20.1-17.6-20.0-18.0-15.0-12.0
Public debt in % of GDP83.391.198.0105.0109.0112.0
Current account in % of GDP-5.2-8.0-16.0-16.0-14.0-13.0
FDI inflow, EUR m422737122019...
Gross external debt in % of GDP86.898.1102.0106.0111.0115.0


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 1/2026

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Maciej Grodzicki, Ioannis Gutzianas, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Biljana Jovanovikj, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Marina Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2026
58 pages including 6 Tables and 15 Figures

Details

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Executive summary

Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII Details

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