Ukraine
In 2018, Ukraine’s economy recorded its highest growth since 2011 thanks to robustly rising wages and remittances, currency stability, and a record grain harvest. However, growth is projected to lose steam this year on the back of monetary tightening and a lower harvest, and owing to reduced gas transit revenues next year. The forthcoming presidential elections may result in more populist economic policies, but will not change the country’s current EU and NATO integration efforts.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 42673 | 42485 | 42270 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 2.4 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.9 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 6000 | 6100 | 6400 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 2.8 | 0.4 | 1.6 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 9.3 | 9.5 | 8.8 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 7.8 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 183 | 237 | 276 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 13.9 | 14.4 | 10.9 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 5.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -2.3 | -1.4 | -1.9 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 80.9 | 71.8 | 60.9 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -1.4 | -2.2 | -3.4 | -3.8 | -5.3 | -6.0 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 3108 | 2506 | 2095 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 127.7 | 97.3 | 83.4 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
UKRAINE: Growth slowdown on the horizon
Vasily Astrov
in: Moving Into the Slow Lane
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2019, March 2019 , pp. 149-152
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 10/2018
Philipp Heimberger, Leon Podkaminer and Sandor Richter
wiiw Monthly Report No. 10, October 2018
46 pages including 1 Tables and 11 Figures