Ukraine
Economic recovery has lost some of its momentum, as industrial production and exports have suffered due to the trade ban with the separatist-controlled areas of Donbas. At the same time, private consumption has benefited from the doubling of the minimum wage at the start of the year. All in all, GDP growth is expected to slow down to 2% this year but recover to 3% in 2018-2019. The newly signed visa-free regime with the EU should have a positive economic impact in the medium and long run.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 43001 | 42845 | 42673 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | -6.6 | -9.8 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 6400 | 5900 | 6000 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -10.1 | -13.0 | 2.8 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 9.3 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 8.7 | 8.3 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 221 | 173 | 183 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 12.1 | 48.7 | 13.9 | 12.0 | 5.9 | 5.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -4.5 | -1.6 | -2.3 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 69.4 | 79.1 | 81.0 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -3.4 | -0.2 | -3.7 | -4.4 | -4.4 | -4.5 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 641 | 2750 | 3108 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 102.6 | 132.4 | 128.9 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2017
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2017
27 pages including 1 Table and 2 Figures
UKRAINE: Investment-led recovery under way
Vasily Astrov
in: Cautious Upturn in CESEE: Haunted by the Spectre of Uncertainty
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2017, March 2017 , pp. 129-133
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