map Ukraine
Russia’s relentless missile and drone attacks, which started in October 2022, have caused significant damage to Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, and the resulting power outages greatly hampered economic activity in Q4 2022. For the year as a whole, the mild winter and the good performance of the agricultural sector ensured a smaller economic decline than had previously been expected (-30%); however, the outlook for 2023 has deteriorated. Although most businesses have adjusted to the power outages by installing autonomous power generators and by changing their work patterns, their performance is being adversely affected by the rising production costs and uncertainty. Given the scale of the damage to the infrastructure, Ukraine’s external financing needs are likely to be much higher than planned in 2023, and may prove difficult to secure. We assume that the hot phase of the war will be over by the end of 2023 and that full-scale reconstruction of the economy will be able to start then, allowing growth to accelerate to about 8% per year in 2024-2025.
Main Economic Indicators202020212022202320242025
Population, 1000 persons417454137835000...
GDP, real change in %-3.83.4-
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)857094108000...
Gross industrial production, real change in %-4.51.9-36.9...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average9.59.925.
Average gross monthly wages, EUR376434437...
Consumer prices, % p.a.2.79.420.
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-5.3-3.4-17.0-20.0-12.0-10.0
Public debt in % of GDP60.449.085.0...
Current account in % of GDP3.4-
FDI inflow, EUR m2666717516...
Gross external debt in % of GDP74.667.891.5...

Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
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Monthly Report No. 2/2023

Tereza De Castro, Branimir Jovanović, Michael Landesmann, Sebastian Leitner, Cristina Procházková Ilinitchi, Ondřej Sankot and Jana Vlčková
wiiw Monthly Report No. 2, February 2023
53 pages including 2 Tables and 28 Figures



Executive summary

Branimir Jovanović
in: Bracing for the Winter
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2022, October 2022 , pp. I-VIII