Ukraine
Barring major shocks, economic growth of around 3% is expected both for this year and the next. Although it is entirely driven by domestic demand (particularly investments) and is accompanied by widening trade imbalances, the latter are increasingly financed by inflows of remittances, especially from Poland. However, next year’s presidential elections pose a number of risks and, in combination with the ongoing monetary tightening in the US, could jeopardise the country’s fragile macroeconomic stability.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 42845 | 42673 | 42485 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | -9.8 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 2.0 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 6000 | 6100 | 6300 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -13.0 | 2.8 | 0.4 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 9.1 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 8.9 | 8.7 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 173 | 183 | 237 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 48.7 | 13.9 | 14.4 | 11.6 | 7.0 | 6.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -1.6 | -2.3 | -1.4 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 79.1 | 80.9 | 71.8 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 1.8 | -1.4 | -2.2 | -2.1 | -2.2 | -3.2 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 2750 | 3108 | 2506 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 132.4 | 128.9 | 98.3 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Monthly Report No. 6/2018
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 6, June 2018
27 pages including 1 Table and 1 Figure
UKRAINE: Reforms stall ahead of elections
Vasily Astrov
in: Riding the Global Growth Wave
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2018, March 2018 , pp. 154-158
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