Ukraine

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Russia’s war against Ukraine continues to have devastating effects on the country. With its Black Sea ports likely to remain blockaded in the coming months, Ukraine will be prevented from shipping the bulk of its exports. Consumer price inflation has continued to accelerate and is likely to reach 20% year on year on average in 2022. To slow soaring inflation, the central bank has increased its policy rate to 25% (by 15 pp) to the highest level for any European country. The budget deficit continues to widen, reflecting significant budget needs and a decrease in revenues. The bulk of this is being financed through borrowing, which poses risks to the sustainability of the country’s public debt. As the war is expected to last for a prolonged period, we forecast a deep recession of the Ukrainian economy in 2022 and a gradual recovery beginning in 2023, subject to the end of the hot phase of the war. We forecast accelerating economic growth in 2024, which would depend on the establishment of a Marshall Fund-type international agency capable of providing sufficient financing for the reconstruction of Ukraine’s economy.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201920202021202220232024
Population, 1000 persons420284174541378...
GDP, real change in %3.2-3.83.4-38.05.013.0
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)908087909390...
Gross industrial production, real change in %-0.5-4.51.9...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average8.29.59.925.015.010.0
Average gross monthly wages, EUR363376434...
Consumer prices, % p.a.7.92.79.420.012.06.0
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-2.2-5.3-3.4-20.0-15.0-8.0
Public debt in % of GDP50.260.448.9...
Current account in % of GDP-2.73.4-1.3-3.0-4.0-6.0
FDI inflow, EUR m51742666066...
Gross external debt in % of GDP79.474.667.7...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2022

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Bernhard Moshammer, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Nina Vujanović, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2022
58 pages including 4 Tables and 21 Figures

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Executive summary

Vasily Astrov
in: Overshadowed by War and Sanctions
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2022, April 2022 , pp. I-VII
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