Ukraine
Ukraine’s GDP contracted in 2020 by only 4%, largely because of favourable conditions in key export markets and resilient household incomes. In 2021 the economy will return to growth, supported by a rebound in private consumption and a revival in investment. Negative risks to the forecast have been growing, due to the suspension of the IMF loan programme and a slow vaccine roll-out.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 42270 | 42028 | 41760 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 3.4 | 3.2 | -4.0 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.0 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 8310 | 8730 | 8560 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 3.0 | -0.5 | -4.5 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 8.8 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 276 | 363 | 376 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 10.9 | 7.9 | 2.7 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -1.9 | -2.2 | -5.3 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 60.9 | 50.2 | 60.8 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -4.9 | -2.7 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | -0.2 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 3872 | 5207 | -515 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 83.4 | 79.4 | 75.1 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
UKRAINE: Good luck can get you only so far
Olga Pindyuk
in: Darkest before the dawn?
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2021, April 2021 , pp. 136-139
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 5/2020
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 5, May 2020
96 pages including 27 Tables and 39 Figures