Economic recovery has progressively gained momentum, but it is entirely driven by domestic demand and is accompanied by widening external imbalances. GDP growth is projected to pick up further to 2.5% in 2017 on account of export stabilisation, and to accelerate to 3% in 2018 2019. However, this scenario crucially hinges on the preservation of the semi-frozen state of the conflict in Donbas and the continuation of the IMF programme.
|Main Economic Indicators||2014||2015||2016||2017||2018||2019|
|Population, 1000 persons.||43001||42845||42673||.||.||.|
|GDP, real change in %||-6.6||-9.8||2.3||2.5||3.0||3.0|
|GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)||6400||5900||6100||.||.||.|
|Gross industrial production, real change in %||-10.1||-13.0||2.8||.||.||.|
|Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average||9.3||9.1||9.3||9.2||8.1||7.3|
|Average gross monthly wages, EUR||221||173||183||.||.||.|
|Consumer prices, % p.a.||12.1||48.7||13.9||10.5||6.1||5.0|
|Fiscal balance in % of GDP||-4.5||-1.6||-2.3||.||.||.|
|Public debt in % of GDP||69.4||79.1||81.0||.||.||.|
|Current account in % of GDP||-3.4||-0.2||-4.1||-4.5||-4.6||-4.8|
|FDI inflow, EUR mn||641||2750||3108||.||.||.|
|Gross external debt in % of GDP||102.6||132.4||128.9||.||.||.|
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
UKRAINE: Investment-led recovery under way
in: Cautious Upturn in CESEE: Haunted by the Spectre of Uncertainty
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2017, March 2017 , pp. 129-133 Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 11/2016
Vasily Astrov, Mahdi Ghodsi, Vladimir Gligorov, Richard Grieveson, Julia Grübler, Sebastian Leitner and Robert Stehrer
wiiw Monthly Report No. 11, November 2016
51 pages including 3 Table and 33 Figures