Ukraine
Economic recovery has progressively gained momentum, but it is entirely driven by domestic demand and is accompanied by widening external imbalances. GDP growth is projected to pick up further to 2.5% in 2017 on account of export stabilisation, and to accelerate to 3% in 2018 2019. However, this scenario crucially hinges on the preservation of the semi-frozen state of the conflict in Donbas and the continuation of the IMF programme.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
| Population, 1000 persons. | 43001 | 42845 | 42673 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | -6.6 | -9.8 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 6400 | 5900 | 6100 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -10.1 | -13.0 | 2.8 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 9.3 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 9.2 | 8.1 | 7.3 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 221 | 173 | 183 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 12.1 | 48.7 | 13.9 | 10.5 | 6.1 | 5.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -4.5 | -1.6 | -2.3 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 69.4 | 79.1 | 81.0 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -3.4 | -0.2 | -4.1 | -4.5 | -4.6 | -4.8 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 641 | 2750 | 3108 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 102.6 | 132.4 | 128.9 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Monthly Report No. 5/2017
Vasily Astrov, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara and Sandor Richter
wiiw Monthly Report No. 5, May 2017
46 pages including 4 Tables and 30 Figures
UKRAINE: Investment-led recovery under way
Vasily Astrov
in: Cautious Upturn in CESEE: Haunted by the Spectre of Uncertainty
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2017, March 2017 , pp. 129-133
Details and Buy
