Ukraine
The Ukrainian economy will be hit quite hard by the Coronavirus crisis – in 2020, GDP will fall by 6%, due to plummeting private consumption and investment. The government needs International Monetary Fund (IMF) assistance to finance the large budget deficit and debt repayments, which will peak in 2020. Inflation will be moderate during 2020-2021, and only a slight depreciation of the hryvnia is expected. One major risk to the forecast is that the government may not be able to secure the IMF loan.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 42485 | 42270 | 42028 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 2.5 | 3.4 | 3.2 | -6.0 | 2.5 | . |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 8300 | 8800 | 9300 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 1.1 | 3.0 | -0.5 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 9.5 | 8.8 | 8.2 | 12.0 | 10.0 | . |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 237 | 276 | 363 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 14.4 | 10.9 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 6.0 | . |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -1.4 | -1.9 | -2.2 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 71.8 | 60.9 | 50.3 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -3.1 | -4.9 | -2.7 | -2.0 | -3.5 | . |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 3473 | 3872 | 5207 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 97.3 | 83.4 | 79.5 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Due to the unusually high level of uncertainty caused by COVID-19, we only present forecasts for 2020-2021.
Monthly Report No. 5/2020
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 5, May 2020
96 pages including 27 Tables and 39 Figures
UKRAINE: All set for faster growth after a year of record performance
Olga Pindyuk
in: Uncertainty in Turbulent Times
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2020, March 2020 , pp. 151-155
Details and Buy