Ukraine
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 41378 | 35000 | 36700 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 3.4 | -28.8 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 4.7 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 11380 | 10090 | 10590 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 1.9 | -36.7 | 6.8 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 9.9 | 25.0 | 20.0 | 14.0 | 10.0 | 9.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 434 | 437 | 441 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 9.4 | 20.2 | 12.9 | 6.0 | 7.5 | 6.5 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -3.5 | -16.1 | -20.4 | -19.0 | -16.0 | -10.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 49.0 | 77.8 | 84.4 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -1.9 | 4.9 | -5.4 | -10.6 | -9.2 | -8.2 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 6717 | 210 | 4227 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 67.8 | 79.7 | 88.0 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
publication_icon
Monthly Report No. 10/2024
Sebastian Leitner, Sandra M. Leitner, Alireza Sabouniha, Sergey Utkin, Zuzana Zavarská and Stella Sophie Zilian
wiiw Monthly Report No. 10, October 2024
57 pages including 28 Figures
publication_icon
Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
Ukraine’s economic activity has been hampered by Russia’s missile attacks on its energy sector infrastructure and by its tightening labour markets. As a result, economic growth in 2024 will slow significantly, compared with the previous year. We have revised our GDP growth forecast for 2025 downwards, to 3.3%, to take account of the energy shortages and the decline in agricultural exports following this summer’s drought. In the baseline scenario, we assume that the war with Russia will continue over the forecast period, but that there will be sufficient external support for Ukraine to keep the economy afloat. However, risks continue to be on the downside, with the most significant being Ukraine losing the war due to lack of support from the West.