Ukraine
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 35000 | 36700 | 37000 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | -28.8 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 3.5 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 10200 | 11010 | 11330 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -36.7 | 6.8 | 4.6 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 25.0 | 20.0 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 10.0 | 9.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 437 | 441 | 494 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 20.2 | 12.9 | 6.5 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 7.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -16.1 | -20.1 | -17.7 | -20.0 | -19.0 | -18.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 77.8 | 83.3 | 91.2 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 4.9 | -5.3 | -7.9 | -13.1 | -13.8 | -14.0 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 210 | 4227 | 3712 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 79.7 | 86.8 | 98.1 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
publication_icon
Monthly Report No. 10/2025
Kristijan Fidanovski, Biljana Jovanovikj, Nóra Kungl, Leon Podkaminer and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 10, October 2025
42 pages including 10 Tables, 39 Figures
publication_icon
Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
It is estimated that Ukraine’s economy will grow by only 2% this year, primarily because of its poor export performance following last year’s bad harvest. Inflation is declining, thanks to a tight monetary policy and a stable exchange rate. As the war is now expected to last longer than was previously thought, we have downgraded our GDP forecast for the next two years. Needless to say, the forecast is subject to very high levels of uncertainty, due to unpredictability in how the war develops and in the availability of external aid.