Ukraine
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 41745 | 41378 | 35000 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | -3.8 | 3.4 | -29.1 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 8580 | 9470 | 8340 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -4.5 | 1.9 | -36.7 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 9.5 | 9.9 | 25.0 | 23.0 | 15.0 | 10.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 376 | 434 | 437 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 2.7 | 9.4 | 20.2 | 14.0 | 9.0 | 7.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -5.3 | -3.5 | -16.3 | -27.0 | -15.0 | -10.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 60.4 | 49.0 | 78.5 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 3.4 | -1.9 | 5.0 | 2.0 | -2.0 | -4.6 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 266 | 6717 | 235 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 74.6 | 67.8 | 80.5 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
publication_icon
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2023
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Nina Vujanović, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2023
51 pages including 3 Tables, 24 Figures and 1 Box
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: Sailing Through Rough Waters
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2023, April 2023 , pp. I-VI
Details
Economic activity picked up in Q1 2023, as the energy system recovered from the damage caused by Russian missiles: real GDP increased by 2.4% relative to Q4 2022 (seasonally adjusted). Stabilisation of the energy market, together with falling food and fuel prices, contributed to a rapid slowdown in consumer inflation to around 15% in May. Capital inflows from international partners allowed the financing of a high budget deficit and an increase in forex reserves to an 11-year high of USD 37.3bn – enough to cover five months’ worth of imports. However, in light of the not inconsiderable downside risks to financial stability due to the war, the central bank has kept its policy rate unchanged at 25%. The fact that staff-level agreement was reached with the International Monetary Fund on the first review of the Extended Fund Facility Arrangement sends out a strong and positive signal to international investors, and should facilitate future access to external financing. We expect the economy to grow by 2% in 2023; future growth prospects will depend on the severity and duration of the war.