Montenegro
After a very strong performance in 2018, growth is expected to weaken somewhat in 2019-2020. A further slowdown is projected for 2021, as the intensity of public investment should decline, enabling a stronger reduction in the comparatively high public debt to GDP ratio. Real wage growth, which has been subdued for the past two years, is finally expected to pick up in 2019-2020 fuelled by the government decision on a 15% minimum wage increase from July 2019.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 622 | 622 | 625 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 2.9 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.1 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 13000 | 13700 | 14400 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -2.9 | -4.2 | 22.4 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 17.4 | 16.1 | 15.2 | 14.3 | 14.0 | 13.9 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 751 | 765 | 766 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | -0.3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -3.6 | -5.3 | -2.9 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 60.8 | 61.1 | 68.3 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -16.2 | -16.1 | -17.2 | -17.8 | -18.0 | -14.3 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 205 | 494 | 415 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 50.6 | 51.5 | 59.8 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Monthly Report No. 6/2019
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Hermine Vidovic and Goran Vuksic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 6, June 2019
27 pages including 24 Tables and 1 Figure
MONTENEGRO: Gradual growth deceleration expected
Goran Vuksic
in: Moving Into the Slow Lane
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2019, March 2019 , pp. 112-115
Details and Buy