Montenegro
The COVID-19 pandemic is taking its toll on Montenegro, with reduced economic activity leading to lower investment and fewer exports. Personal consumption is expected to slow in 2020. Meanwhile, government consumption will increase, in order to mitigate the fallout from the pandemic. This will alter the government’s planned path of debt reduction in 2020. Particularly in light of the imminent deep downturn in Montenegro’s over-dominant tourist industry, the country’s economy is expected to contract by 8% in 2020, to be followed in 2021 by 5% GDP growth.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 622 | 622 | 625 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 4.7 | 5.1 | 3.6 | -8.0 | 5.0 | . |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 13700 | 14800 | 15500 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -4.2 | 22.4 | -6.3 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 16.1 | 15.2 | 15.1 | 21.0 | 19.0 | . |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 765 | 766 | 773 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 2.4 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | . |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -5.3 | -2.9 | -2.3 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 64.2 | 70.1 | 69.0 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -16.1 | -17.0 | -15.2 | -20.0 | -16.0 | . |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 494 | 415 | 405 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 51.5 | 59.2 | 63.7 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Forecasts as of March 2020 considering the effect of COVID-19 with a severe scenario. Due to this uncertain situation we only offer forecasts for GDP.
Monthly Report No. 5/2020
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 5, May 2020
96 pages including 27 Tables and 39 Figures
MONTENEGRO: Longing for European integration
Bernd Christoph Ströhm
in: Uncertainty in Turbulent Times
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2020, March 2020 , pp. 115-118
Details and Buy