Montenegro

map Montenegro
Montenegro enters 2025 facing a complex economic landscape. GDP growth is projected to remain at 3%, driven by domestic demand and a rebound in industrial output and investment. However, a widening trade deficit, weakening employment growth and sluggish tourism all pose downside risks to this outlook. Inflation is expected to stabilise at around 3%, while real wages will continue to rise, though more moderately. Key reforms tied to EU funds remain delayed, while fiscal vulnerabilities are mounting. While the record EUR 850m eurobond issue in March will provide short-term relief, the political instability and opaque investment deals – such as the EUR 30bn agreement with the UAE – pose immediate challenges.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202220232024202520262027
Population, 1000 persons617624624...
GDP, real change in %6.46.33.03.43.33.2
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)174801985021100...
Gross industrial production, real change in %-3.36.40.2...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average14.713.111.511.010.610.2
Average gross monthly wages, EUR8839871082...
Consumer prices, % p.a.11.98.73.63.02.52.8
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-4.30.6-3.2-3.0-3.0-3.0
Public debt in % of GDP69.259.361.3...
Current account in % of GDP-12.9-11.4-17.3-16.7-16.4-16.3
FDI inflow, EUR m833487552...
Gross external debt in % of GDP158.7130.1128.1...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

publication_icon

Monthly Report No. 1/2025

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Maciej J. Grodzicki, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2025
50 pages including 6 Tables and 13 Figures

Details

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Executive summary

Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details


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