Montenegro

map Montenegro
Inflation has fallen significantly, but at over 4% was still relatively high at the end of 2023. The big influx into Montenegro of refugees from Ukraine and of other foreigners has boosted private consumption, tourism, the real estate sector, the banking sector and employment. We estimate that the country’s GDP grew by 6.6% in 2023, the highest in CESEE. There were favourable trends on the labour market, with unemployment dropping to a historic low of below 12%; that said, a significant part of the new recruitment has been in the already overblown public administration. After a period of political instability, in October 2023 the country got its third government in three years. The new government, headed by the Europe Now! movement responsible for the 2022 tax reforms, has promised to implement an ambitious agenda in 2024. That will include increasing pensions, the minimum wage and average salaries, and striving for full employment – and all while reducing working hours. Additionally, a number of structural reforms have been announced, ranging from reform of policy on state-owned enterprises to an overhaul of public infrastructure investments. Implementation of all these measures will have an impact both on the fiscal balance and on the wider economic outlook. The EU integration agenda is billed as the new government’s top priority, and it remains to be seen whether this momentum will be used to break the lengthy logjam in the accession process.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202120222023202420252026
Population, 1000 persons619617....
GDP, real change in %13.06.46.64.03.53.2
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)1546017580....
Gross industrial production, real change in %4.9-3.2....
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average16.614.713.412.511.510.5
Average gross monthly wages, EUR793883987...
Consumer prices, % p.a.2.413.08.65.03.02.5
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-1.9-5.1-3.4-4.5-4.8-5.0
Public debt in % of GDP84.069.2....
Current account in % of GDP-9.2-12.9-8.3-10.8-10.2-10.0
FDI inflow, EUR m591833487...
Gross external debt in % of GDP191.7158.3....


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 1/2024

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2024
50 pages including 5 Tables and 18 Figures

Details

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Executive summary

Branimir Jovanović
in: Beneath the Veneer of Calm
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2023, October 2023 , pp. I-VI
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