Montenegro
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 621 | 619 | 618 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | -15.3 | 13.0 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 3.0 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 13440 | 15540 | 16860 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -0.9 | 4.9 | -3.3 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 17.9 | 16.6 | 14.5 | 15.0 | 13.9 | 13.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 783 | 793 | 883 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | -0.3 | 2.4 | 13.0 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -11.1 | -1.9 | -5.2 | -7.5 | -7.5 | -6.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 105.3 | 84.0 | 72.0 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -26.1 | -9.2 | -13.3 | -12.0 | -10.7 | -9.5 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 466 | 591 | 833 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 221.6 | 191.7 | 162.5 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
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Monthly Report No. 1/2023
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Nina Vujanović, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2023
44 pages including 4 Tables and 16 Figures
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Executive summary
Branimir Jovanović
in: Bracing for the Winter
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2022, October 2022 , pp. I-VIII
Details
In 2022, Montenegro experienced its highest inflation for 20 years – an average of 13%. Yet private consumption still grew, thanks to a tax reform that boosted household income and a growth in tourism, which bounced back nearly to pre-pandemic levels. This led to GDP growth of over 5%. The fiscal deficit widened significantly in 2022 and will likely only narrow gradually during the forecast period, due to higher budgetary spending on health, social security and the public sector. We predict a more modest GDP growth rate in 2023 of 2.6%, supported by growth in tourism and the energy sector (where further investments are planned). Private consumption will dry up as high inflation continues into 2023, due to the carry-over effects from last year and the limited fiscal space left to control it. The country still faces unprecedented institutional instability, owing to the dysfunctional constitutional court and the caretaker government. EU officials have already stated that this could lead to the suspension of talks over EU accession. Presidential and parliamentary elections this year may put the country back on a more even road; or they may trap it in the current vicious circle.