map Montenegro
After suffering Europe’s deepest recession last year (-15.2%), Montenegro’s economic bounce-back is still subject to numerous risks and is crucially dependent on a successful tourist season. The country’s tourist industry is particularly reliant on CESEE inter-regional arrivals, mainly from Serbia and BiH. However, given BiH’s slow COVID-19 vaccination campaign, realistically in 2021 the country is only likely to benefit inter-regionally from Serbian arrivals. Besides, so far Montenegro has scarcely benefited from any Russian arrivals, as there is a formal ban on flights between the two countries.

COVID-19 continues to cast its shadow well into 2021, with GDP contracting by 6.4% in Q1. Economic recovery is also inhibited by the government’s failure to swiftly approve the country’s state budget for 2021. So far, it has only been able to adopt a draft budget for the year, with a projected 3% deficit. However, with the COVID-19 support measures, we expect that deficit to surge to 5.4%. Higher oil prices will stoke energy costs, which is why we expect this year’s inflation to increase to 1.7%. The pandemic-related uncertainties and the overcast prospects for the tourist season mean that we maintain our rather pessimistic GDP growth forecast in 2021 of 6.5%.
Main Economic Indicators201820192020202120222023
Population, 1000 persons622622621...
GDP, real change in %5.14.1-
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)146101568013720...
Gross industrial production, real change in %22.4-6.3-0.9...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average15.215.117.917.516.016.0
Average gross monthly wages, EUR766773783...
Consumer prices, % p.a.2.60.4-
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-3.9-2.0-11.1-5.4-4.0-3.0
Public debt in % of GDP70.176.5105.3...
Current account in % of GDP-17.0-14.3-26.1-20.9-18.6-16.1
FDI inflow, EUR m415372463...
Gross external debt in % of GDP163.7169.0224.1...

Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.


Monthly Report No. 7-8/2021

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanovic, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2021
42 pages including 4 Tables and 15 Figures



MONTENEGRO: Tourism to drive recovery in 2021

Bernd Christoph Ströhm
in: Darkest before the dawn?
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2021, April 2021 , pp. 98-101
Details and Buy