Montenegro

The COVID-19 pandemic is exacting a heavy toll on the Montenegrin economy, largely because of the country’s reliance on its tourism sector: arrivals were 77.9% down in the first eight months of the year. This has had serious repercussions for employment, and foreign direct investment has also declined. Alongside Croatia, Montenegro is one of those countries in CESEE that will be hardest hit by COVID-19, with GDP contracting by 9% in 2020. In 2021, we expect a partial recovery in tourism, supporting overall growth of 5%.

map Montenegro
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201720182019202020212022
Population, 1000 persons622622622...
GDP, real change in %4.75.14.1-9.05.04.1
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)135201461015680...
Gross industrial production, real change in %-4.222.4-6.3...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average16.115.215.119.017.516.0
Average gross monthly wages, EUR765766773...
Consumer prices, % p.a.2.42.60.4-0.11.11.5
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-5.3-3.9-2.0...
Public debt in % of GDP64.270.176.5...
Current account in % of GDP-16.1-17.0-15.0-14.8-13.0-12.5
FDI inflow, EUR mn494415373...
Gross external debt in % of GDP160.6163.2167.9...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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MONTENEGRO: Tourism decline drives major slump in economic growth

Bernd Christoph Ströhm
in: No Quick Recovery in Sight, with Coronavirus Risks Looming Large
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2020, November 2020 , pp. 89-91
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Monthly Report No. 5/2020

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 5, May 2020
96 pages including 27 Tables and 39 Figures

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