Montenegro
Growth will slow to around 3% in the short run but may accelerate somewhat beyond that, depending primarily on the resumptions of ambitious government investments. Politically, the opposition is yet to find a way to challenge the governing coalition, though the democratic deficit is taking its toll on internal and external credibility. Montenegro is a front-runner in EU integration, though the prospects of accession are not rosy as the EU does not appear to be interested in enlargement any time soon.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 622 | 622 | 622 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 2.9 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.1 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 13000 | 13700 | 14700 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -2.9 | -4.2 | 22.4 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 17.4 | 16.1 | 15.2 | 14.3 | 14.0 | 13.9 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 751 | 765 | 766 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | -0.3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -3.6 | -5.3 | -2.9 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 64.4 | 64.2 | 70.1 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -16.2 | -16.1 | -17.0 | -17.8 | -18.0 | -14.3 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 205 | 494 | 415 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 50.6 | 51.5 | 59.2 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
MONTENEGRO: Fiscal consolidation puts a brake on growth
Vladimir Gligorov
in: Braced for Fallout from Global Slowdown
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2019, November 2019 , pp. 91-93
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 6/2019
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Hermine Vidovic and Goran Vuksic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 6, June 2019
27 pages including 24 Tables and 1 Figure