Montenegro
Montenegro suffered comfortable CESEE’s deepest contraction in economic activity in 2020, with GDP shrinking by 15.2% on the back of a steep decline in tourism revenue and the country’s limited fiscal cushion. In 2021, we expect economic recovery to be somewhat inhibited, with the government’s COVID-19 restrictions from 2020 radiating well into 2021. We still expect GDP to grow by 6.5%, boosted by tourism and remittances.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 622 | 622 | 625 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 5.1 | 4.1 | -15.2 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 3.7 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 14610 | 15680 | 13440 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 22.4 | -6.3 | -0.9 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 15.2 | 15.1 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 766 | 773 | 783 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 2.6 | 0.4 | -0.3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -3.9 | -2.0 | -10.0 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 70.1 | 76.5 | 100.0 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -17.0 | -15.0 | -26.0 | -20.9 | -18.5 | -16.1 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 415 | 373 | 463 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 163.2 | 167.9 | 199.0 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
MONTENEGRO: Tourism to drive recovery in 2021
Bernd Christoph Ströhm
in: Darkest before the dawn?
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2021, April 2021 , pp. 98-101
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 5/2020
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 5, May 2020
96 pages including 27 Tables and 39 Figures