Montenegro

map Montenegro
Montenegro entered 2026 with inflation easing and growth set to remain a little above 3% over the medium term, but the overall picture is less reassuring than the headline numbers would suggest. The new Middle Eastern war and the oil-price shock it has triggered have significantly worsened the external environment. Exports remain weak, industrial output performed very poorly in 2025, and fiscal pressures are building ahead of large debt repayments. The continuation of the Bar–Boljare highway could support investment, but growing reliance on special intergovernmental arrangements for major projects adds a new layer of policy and governance risk.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202320242025202620272028
Population, 1000 persons624624624...
GDP, real change in %6.53.22.72.82.93.0
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)199002136022550...
Gross industrial production, real change in %6.40.2-9.3...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average13.111.510.79.59.49.3
Average gross monthly wages, EUR98710821206...
Consumer prices, % p.a.8.73.64.14.03.53.0
Fiscal balance in % of GDP0.6-3.3-4.3-3.7-3.8-4.0
Public debt in % of GDP58.459.859.0...
Current account in % of GDP-11.2-17.1-20.5-19.4-19.2-20.9
FDI inflow, EUR m487554597...
Gross external debt in % of GDP128.2126.6126.3...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 1/2026

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Maciej Grodzicki, Ioannis Gutzianas, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Biljana Jovanovikj, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Marina Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2026
58 pages including 6 Tables and 15 Figures

Details

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Executive summary

Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details


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