Montenegro
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 621 | 619 | 617 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | -15.3 | 13.0 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 3.0 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 13440 | 15540 | 17910 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -0.9 | 4.9 | -3.2 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 17.9 | 16.6 | 14.7 | 13.8 | 13.1 | 12.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 783 | 793 | 883 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | -0.3 | 2.4 | 13.0 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 2.8 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -11.1 | -1.9 | -5.1 | -4.9 | -4.8 | -4.5 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 105.3 | 84.0 | 69.2 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -26.1 | -9.2 | -12.9 | -11.7 | -10.7 | -10.4 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 466 | 591 | 833 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 221.6 | 191.7 | 158.6 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
publication_icon
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2023
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Nina Vujanović, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2023
51 pages including 3 Tables, 24 Figures and 1 Box
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: Sailing Through Rough Waters
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2023, April 2023 , pp. I-VI
Details
In Q1 2023 Montenegro posted another impressive growth rate of 6.1% year on year. The number of tourists increased by around 60% year on year in the first four months of 2023, supporting private consumption, which grew by 16.3% in Q1. Even though the figure is inflated by Ukrainian and Russian citizens who are registered as tourists in Montenegro, in 2023 we expect a full rebound in tourism to pre-pandemic levels, helped along by improved flight connections. The solid rainfall season this year supported hydropower electricity generation and contributed to industrial production growth of around 10% year on year in Q1. Inflation in April declined to single figures for the first time in more than a year. Given these developments, we have revised our GDP growth projection for 2023 upwards by 0.6 percentage points (pp), to 3.5%, and our forecast for inflation downwards by 0.3 pp, to 9.7%. However, the country’s economic performance in the medium term may be distorted by political instability that is not yet fully resolved. Despite a record low turnout (55%) in the parliamentary elections in June, the results confirmed that the new ‘Europe Now’ party will lead the country, though it is as yet unclear whether it will be able to form a stable government.