Montenegro
The forecasted growth rate is below Montenegro’s potential given the unemployment rate for one, which is expected to remain not much below 20%. Assuming that political stability is maintained and public investments continue with growth of tourist services, 3% growth should be the floor growth rate rather than the ceiling in the medium term.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 622 | 622 | 622 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 1.8 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 2.5 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 11300 | 12200 | 12900 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -11.4 | 7.9 | -3.7 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 18.0 | 17.6 | 17.4 | 17.0 | 16.5 | 16.5 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 723 | 725 | 751 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | -0.5 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -3.0 | -8.0 | -3.4 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 56.2 | 62.3 | 60.8 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -15.2 | -13.2 | -18.1 | -21.4 | -23.7 | -23.7 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 375 | 630 | 205 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 45.2 | 53.5 | 50.6 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2017
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2017
27 pages including 1 Table and 2 Figures
MONTENEGRO: Growth returns
Vladimir Gligorov
in: Cautious Upturn in CESEE: Haunted by the Spectre of Uncertainty
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2017, March 2017 , pp. 96-98
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