Montenegro

map Montenegro
The formation of a new government in Q2 2022 has brought about more political clarity and greater commitment to reforms as part of the EU accession process. Although the GDP growth rate in Q1 2022, at 7.2%, was very high, this was mainly from a low base in 2021 due to the lockdown, and somewhat increased private consumption. Inflation recorded double-digit growth in Q2 2022. The implementation of recent amendments to the laws on excise duty and value-added tax will limit the rise in fuel and food prices, but this will not be enough to tame inflation, which we expect to average 10% this year. The tourism sector is expecting a good season, based on improved airline connectivity with the EU market this year and the revival of demand globally. This will push up services exports. We forecast a current account deficit of 12% of GDP this year, 0.5 percentage points narrower than we projected in our spring forecast. Despite this, growth potential will be capped by high inflation, which will erode purchasing power. We forecast GDP growth at 3.6% in 2022, 0.1p higher than we had expected in the Spring.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201920202021202220232024
Population, 1000 persons622621621...
GDP, real change in %4.1-15.312.43.63.73.3
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)157001336015390...
Gross industrial production, real change in %-6.3-0.94.9...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average15.117.916.615.314.814.0
Average gross monthly wages, EUR773783793...
Consumer prices, % p.a.0.4-0.32.410.04.02.0
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-2.0-11.1-1.8-3.1-2.9-2.1
Public debt in % of GDP76.5105.384.8...
Current account in % of GDP-14.3-26.1-9.3-12.0-12.7-12.2
FDI inflow, EUR m372466590...
Gross external debt in % of GDP169.0224.1188.0...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2022

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Bernhard Moshammer, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Nina Vujanović, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2022
58 pages including 4 Tables and 21 Figures

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Executive summary

Vasily Astrov
in: Overshadowed by War and Sanctions
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2022, April 2022 , pp. I-VII
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