Montenegro
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 617 | 624 | 624 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 6.4 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.2 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 17480 | 19850 | 21320 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -3.3 | 6.4 | 0.2 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 14.7 | 13.1 | 11.5 | 11.0 | 10.6 | 10.2 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 883 | 987 | 1082 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 11.9 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 2.8 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -4.3 | 0.6 | -3.2 | -2.5 | -2.7 | -2.3 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 69.2 | 59.3 | 61.3 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -12.9 | -11.4 | -17.3 | -16.0 | -15.0 | -14.0 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 833 | 487 | 552 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 158.7 | 130.1 | 129.6 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2025
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Maciej Grodzicki, Ioannis Gutzianas, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2025
38 pages including 5 Tables and 3 Figures
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
GDP growth in Q1 amounted to 2.5% – somewhat weaker than expected and almost half the figure for the same time last year. Overnight tourist stays are trending downwards, with fewer recorded in the first five months of 2025 than in the same period last year – an alarming development, as there was already a noticeable decline in 2024. The reasons could include the poor roads (some of which are currently being upgraded) and strong competition from neighbouring Croatia and Albania. We are revising our earlier forecast of 3.4% GDP growth in 2025 down to 3.2%. On a positive note, the unemployment rate fell to single digits for the first time since the indicator started to be measured, reaching 9.9% in May. Last year’s trend of falling inflation has gone into reverse in 2025, with each month bringing a higher rate – 4.5% in May. We have thus revised our inflation forecast for 2025 upwards, to 3.3% (from our initial forecast of 3%). Parliament has ratified agreements with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on cooperation in the fields of the economy, tourism and real estate. These pave the way to contracts with UAE investors that bypass laws governing public procurement and competition, and that enable contracts to be awarded directly, without tender. This threatens to weaken transparency and equal treatment. The pace of EU accession negotiations has slowed. Only one chapter (Chapter 5 on public procurement) has so far been recommended for provisional closure, rather than the four expected in the first half of the year. While disagreements with Croatia are playing a role in the slow pace of the accession talks, the administration actually appears overwhelmed by the workload facing it. Matters are not helped by the frequent tensions that arise within the ruling coalition.