Montenegro
In 2018, GDP will grow by 4.2% – better than previously expected. The main driving forces behind the dynamic growth are fast growing investment and exports. High growth has brought about job creation, but unemployment remains high. The costs of the Bar-Boljare highway project have risen, which exacerbated the government debt burden. During 2019-2020, economic growth will slow down to about 3%.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 622 | 622 | 625 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 2.9 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 3.1 | . |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 13000 | 13700 | 14400 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -2.9 | -4.2 | 22.8 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 17.4 | 16.1 | 14.8 | 15.0 | 15.0 | . |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 751 | 765 | 766 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | -0.3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 2.0 | . |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -3.6 | -5.3 | -2.9 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 60.8 | 61.1 | 70.0 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -16.2 | -16.1 | -18.2 | -17.1 | -17.2 | . |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 205 | 494 | 350 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 50.6 | 51.5 | 60.0 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
MONTENEGRO: Doing well, but clouds on the horizon
Olga Pindyuk
in: Strong Growth Amid Increased Negative Risks
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2018, November 2018 , pp. 111-113
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 6/2018
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 6, June 2018
27 pages including 1 Table and 1 Figure