map Lithuania
The economy performed worse than expected in 2023, with GDP declining by 0.3%. With the substantial fall in inflation, real incomes had already started to pick up by the end of last year and will continue to do so in 2024; this will support household consumption. Despite the stagnation, the labour market remains robust, and unemployment is likely to decline further. Private investment activity is ailing, since external demand is in the doldrums; meanwhile the government will further raise infrastructure investment. We expect real GDP to increase by 1.6% in 2024; this will be followed by a modest acceleration to 2.2% in 2025 and thereafter to 2.6% in 2026.
Main Economic Indicators202120222023202420252026
Population, 1000 persons280128322887...
GDP, real change in %6.32.4-
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)291903165032560...
Gross industrial production, real change in %20.59.1-6.4...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average7.
Average gross monthly wages, EUR157917892014...
Consumer prices, % p.a.4.618.
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-1.2-0.6-0.8-2.5-2.5-2.3
Public debt in % of GDP43.438.138.3...
Current account in % of GDP1.1-
FDI inflow, EUR m25346342940...
Gross external debt in % of GDP78.967.668.4...

Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.


Executive summary

Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII


Monthly Report No. 1/2024

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2024
50 pages including 5 Tables and 18 Figures