Lithuania
External demand dynamic cooled off last year and is expected to continue abating in 2019 and the coming two years. Public and private investment will drive growth for another year. Thereafter we expect private investment activity to subside gradually. A further decline in unemployment is driving rapid wage increases. In addition, the implemented income tax reform will foster growth in household consumption. For 2019, we expect real GDP to grow by 3%, followed by 2.6% in 2020 and 2.3% in 2021.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 2868 | 2828 | 2801 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 2.4 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.3 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 22000 | 23500 | 25100 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 2.8 | 7.0 | 4.8 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 7.9 | 7.1 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 774 | 840 | 920 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 0.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.3 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 40.0 | 39.4 | 34.2 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -0.8 | 0.9 | 1.6 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.6 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 109 | 1023 | 732 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 85.2 | 83.6 | 78.5 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
LITHUANIA: Domestic demand keeps growth buoyant
Sebastian Leitner
in: Moving Into the Slow Lane
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2019, March 2019 , pp. 104-107
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 6/2018
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 6, June 2018
27 pages including 1 Table and 1 Figure