Lithuania

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Following a strong recovery last year, economic growth in Lithuania has been dealt a blow by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Big rises in the price of energy and other imported inputs for industrial production are hitting economies worldwide. In addition, the trade linkages with Russia, Belarus and Ukraine are obviously more intensive in the Baltics than in other parts of the EU. A decline in household and business sentiment alike means that consumption and investment activity will lose momentum in 2022. The government is trying to counter the loss of households’ purchasing power with an anti-inflationary package, and it should manage to keep economic activity afloat with its planned public investments. In our main scenario, we expect real GDP to grow by 1.7% in 2022, followed by an upswing of 2.8% in 2023 and 2.6% in 2024.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201920202021202220232024
Population, 1000 persons279427952795...
GDP, real change in %4.6-0.15.01.72.82.6
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)262202598028490...
Gross industrial production, real change in %3.0-1.319.5...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average6.38.57.16.87.06.0
Average gross monthly wages, EUR129614291568...
Consumer prices, % p.a.2.21.14.612.06.54.0
Fiscal balance in % of GDP0.5-7.3-1.0-4.0-3.0-2.0
Public debt in % of GDP35.946.644.3...
Current account in % of GDP3.57.31.40.80.40.5
FDI inflow, EUR m306039791605...
Gross external debt in % of GDP70.175.776.6...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Executive summary

Vasily Astrov
in: Overshadowed by War and Sanctions
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2022, April 2022 , pp. I-VII
Details

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Monthly Report No. 1/2022

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Marcus How, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Nina Vujanović, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2022
58 pages including 4 Tables and 21 Figures

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