Lithuania
Figures for the first quarter of 2020 show that the Lithuanian economy was in a high gear before foreign and domestic demand collapsed. The Lithuanian government reacted in tandem with the Lithuanian national bank to provide liquidity, income support and funding for infrastructure projects, through a rescue package worth almost 10% of GDP. We forecast the Lithuanian economy to shrink by 6.5% in 2020. The predicted revival of 4.3% in 2021 will depend upon the speed of recovery in manufacturing among the country’s European trading partners.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 2828 | 2802 | 2794 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 4.2 | 3.6 | 3.9 | -6.5 | 4.3 | . |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 23600 | 24800 | 26100 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 7.0 | 4.8 | 3.4 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 7.1 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 8.0 | . |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 840 | 924 | 1296 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 3.7 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 0.3 | 1.4 | . |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 39.1 | 33.8 | 36.2 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 0.5 | 0.3 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 4.0 | . |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 1204 | 1201 | 1207 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 83.9 | 78.5 | 68.0 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Due to the unusually high level of uncertainty caused by COVID-19, we only present forecasts for 2020-2021.
Monthly Report No. 5/2020
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 5, May 2020
96 pages including 27 Tables and 39 Figures
LITHUANIA: Continued growth, in a higher gear than expected
Sebastian Leitner
in: Uncertainty in Turbulent Times
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2020, March 2020 , pp. 107-110
Details and Buy