Lithuania
The Lithuanian economy experienced a short-lived recession in the second quarter of 2020, recovering quickly and experiencing just a small GDP decline of 0.8% for the full year 2020. Better-than-expected export performance and swiftly rebounding household consumption were coupled with a slump in imports. In 2021 the ongoing restrictions due to the second and third wave of infections will keep the economic revival subdued. The government continues to deliver substantial fiscal stimulus, and the announced public investments will support recovery over the next two years. For 2021 we expect real GDP to grow by 2.1%, followed by a faster upswing of 3.8% in 2022 and 3.1% in 2023.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 2802 | 2794 | 2795 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 3.9 | 4.3 | -0.8 | 2.1 | 3.8 | 3.5 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 24640 | 26030 | 26170 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 4.8 | 3.4 | -1.8 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 6.2 | 6.3 | 8.5 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 6.5 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 924 | 1296 | 1421 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 3.3 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | 0.6 | 0.3 | -6.0 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 33.7 | 35.9 | 46.9 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 0.3 | 3.3 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 4.0 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 1096 | 1402 | 1337 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 78.1 | 67.7 | 74.4 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
LITHUANIA: Recession prevented, revival delayed
Sebastian Leitner
in: Darkest before the dawn?
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2021, April 2021 , pp. 90-93
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 5/2020
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 5, May 2020
96 pages including 27 Tables and 39 Figures