Lithuania

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The economy performed decently in Q2 2025, but less well than expected, with real GDP increasing by 3.1% year on year. This year’s higher inflation has meant that the growth in real incomes has lost steam – a trend that will largely continue over the next two years. Still, growth in household consumption remains stable. Employment is expanding steadily, and unemployment has remained almost unchanged. Alongside public investment, private investment is on the rise, as external demand emerges from the doldrums. Meanwhile, the government has further plans to raise investment in both infrastructure and, particularly, defence. We expect real GDP to grow by 2.6% in 2025, followed by 3.2% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202320242025202620272028
Population, 1000 persons28722888....
GDP, real change in %0.73.02.83.02.42.7
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)3293034940....
Gross industrial production, real change in %-5.34.0....
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average6.97.17.06.56.36.1
Average gross monthly wages, EUR201422232410...
Consumer prices, % p.a.8.70.93.43.02.52.2
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-0.7-1.3-2.6-2.8-2.7-2.5
Public debt in % of GDP37.138.041.044.046.049.0
Current account in % of GDP1.13.22.01.51.00.9
FDI inflow, EUR m35484338....
Gross external debt in % of GDP68.777.483.088.092.092.0


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 1/2026

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Maciej Grodzicki, Ioannis Gutzianas, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Biljana Jovanovikj, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Marina Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2026
58 pages including 6 Tables and 15 Figures

Details

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Executive summary

Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII Details

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