Lithuania

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In the second half of 2023, the Lithuanian economy was hit harder than expected by declining external demand from its main trading partners. This resulted in a GDP decline of 0.2% for the year as a whole. It was not until December 2023 that the consumer price index fell to below 2%. For 2024 and the following years, we expect inflation to be maintained at somewhat above this level, since wages will continue to rise rapidly. Household consumption declined throughout 2023. This year it is likely to pick up again – retail trade is reporting the first signs of an upturn. The growth in gross fixed investment will be driven mainly by the public sector. However, the inflows of EU funds will also support private investment to modernise the production infrastructure of enterprises. After a budget deficit of well below 2% of GDP in 2023, we are likely to see a slight increase this year to 2.5%. There will be only a gradual revival in external demand from EU countries in 2024 and thereafter. Although GDP fell by about 0.2% in 2023, the unemployment rate increased by only 0.8 percentage points, to 6.8% last year. For 2024 and the coming two years, only a modest decline in unemployment is likely, given the stagnant labour supply. We expect real GDP to grow again by 1.5% in 2024, followed by an upswing of 2.0% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202120222023202420252026
Population, 1000 persons28012832....
GDP, real change in %6.32.4-0.21.52.02.4
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)2919031640....
Gross industrial production, real change in %19.59.6-5.3...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average7.16.06.86.56.36.1
Average gross monthly wages, EUR15791789....
Consumer prices, % p.a.4.618.98.72.42.32.5
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-1.2-0.7-1.7-2.5-2.0-1.5
Public debt in % of GDP43.438.1....
Current account in % of GDP1.1-5.51.31.00.80.5
FDI inflow, EUR m2534634....
Gross external debt in % of GDP78.967.6....


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 1/2024

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2024
50 pages including 5 Tables and 18 Figures

Details

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Executive summary

Branimir Jovanović
in: Beneath the Veneer of Calm
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2023, October 2023 , pp. I-VI
Details


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