Lithuania
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 2832 | 2872 | 2888 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 2.5 | 0.3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.4 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 31650 | 33030 | 34730 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 5.5 | -5.3 | 4.0 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 6.0 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 6.3 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 1789 | 2014 | 2223 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 18.9 | 8.7 | 0.9 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -0.7 | -0.7 | -1.3 | -2.7 | -2.6 | -2.5 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 38.1 | 37.3 | 38.2 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -6.1 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.9 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 2291 | 3548 | 3319 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 66.8 | 69.2 | 77.6 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2025
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Maciej Grodzicki, Ioannis Gutzianas, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2025
38 pages including 5 Tables and 3 Figures
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
In Q1 2025, the Lithuanian economy remained in high gear, with real GDP increasing by 3.4% in real terms, year on year. Public investment is currently the strongest driver of growth. Projects financed from the NextGenerationEU programme, as well as some related to the defence industry are boosting both private and public investment. By contrast, growth in household consumption will likely slow this year compared to 2024. Although real wages are still rising steadily, households have become more cautious, which has resulted in a higher propensity for them to save. As expected, external demand from Latvia’s main trading partners is improving, though more slowly than previously anticipated on account of the insecurity caused worldwide by the new US administration. Consumer prices will increase much more this year, driven in particular by higher excise duty, but also by rising prices for food and services. In the coming years, however, inflation will again decrease. Following a budget deficit of only 1.8% of GDP in 2024, we are likely to see an increase to 2.8% this year, particularly driven by the hike in defence spending to 3.9% of GDP – and thereafter a figure of 5-6% is envisaged. Despite solid GDP growth, we expect the unemployment rate this year to fall only slightly to 6.9%. However, the decline will likely be more pronounced in 2026 and beyond. We have not altered our recent forecast: we expect real GDP to continue to grow by 2.8% in 2025, followed by 2.6% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027.