Lithuania
The Lithuanian economy experienced only a short-lived and contained recession in the second quarter of 2020, with GDP declining by 4.2% year on year. Within the European Union, only Ireland was hit less hard. A better-than-expected export performance and swiftly rebounding household consumption in the months thereafter is likely to result in a decline in the Lithuanian economy of only 2% over 2020. The government undertook substantial fiscal stimulus measures, and the public investments announced will support recovery over the next two years. For 2021, we expect real GDP to grow by 4.5%, followed by a somewhat slower upswing of 3.2% in 2022.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 2828 | 2802 | 2794 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 4.3 | 3.9 | 4.3 | -2.0 | 4.5 | 3.2 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 23120 | 24500 | 25720 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 7.0 | 4.8 | 3.4 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 7.1 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 7.5 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 840 | 924 | 1296 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 3.7 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 2.3 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 39.1 | 33.7 | 35.9 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 0.5 | 0.3 | 3.3 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 4.4 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 1192 | 1096 | 1402 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 82.6 | 78.1 | 67.7 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
LITHUANIA: Rather a dip than an economic crisis
Sebastian Leitner
in: No Quick Recovery in Sight, with Coronavirus Risks Looming Large
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2020, November 2020 , pp. 81-84
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 5/2020
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 5, May 2020
96 pages including 27 Tables and 39 Figures