Lithuania
Public and private investment have driven growth in the Lithuanian economy for another year. A further decline in unemployment has resulted in rapid wage increases. Furthermore, the enacted income tax reform will foster steady, strong growth in household consumption. The increase in external demand has been stronger than expected in 2018, but is likely to abate slightly in the coming two years. For 2018, we expect real GDP to grow by 3.5%, followed by 3% in 2019 and 2.6% in 2020.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 2868 | 2828 | 2800 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 2.4 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 2.6 | . |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 22000 | 23500 | 24900 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 2.9 | 6.9 | 4.7 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 7.9 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 5.8 | . |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 774 | 840 | 920 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 0.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.5 | . |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 39.9 | 39.4 | 36.5 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -0.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 | -1.3 | -1.4 | . |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 870 | 1024 | 950 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 85.2 | 83.6 | 79.9 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
LITHUANIA: Brisk domestic demand fosters growth
Sebastian Leitner
in: Strong Growth Amid Increased Negative Risks
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2018, November 2018 , pp. 104-107
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 6/2018
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 6, June 2018
27 pages including 1 Table and 1 Figure