Lithuania

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The country’s economic recovery remained solid throughout 2021, supported by a revival of investment activity and a rapid growth in household consumption. The latter will continue in 2022, given the roughly 14% increase in the national minimum wage (which rose to EUR 730 in January) and the reduction in the tax burden on employees. In addition, employment this year will exceed the 2019 level. Consumer price inflation will remain high and will abate only in 2023. Given the good revenue picture, the government plans to increase investment in real terms in 2022, while at the same time reducing the budget deficit to about 3% of GDP. We expect GDP to have increased by 5% in 2021 and forecast that GDP growth will moderate to 3.7% this year. In the two years to follow, a slowdown to a trend growth rate of 3% is expected.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201920202021202220232024
Population, 1000 persons27942795....
GDP, real change in %4.6-0.15.03.73.32.9
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)2622025980....
Gross industrial production, real change in %3.4-1.8....
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average6.38.57.26.86.26.0
Average gross monthly wages, EUR12961429....
Consumer prices, % p.a.2.21.14.64.42.82.0
Fiscal balance in % of GDP0.5-7.2-6.2-4.0-2.5-1.9
Public debt in % of GDP35.946.6....
Current account in % of GDP3.57.32.81.71.51.2
FDI inflow, EUR m30603979....
Gross external debt in % of GDP70.175.7....


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 1/2022

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Marcus How, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Nina Vujanović, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2022
58 pages including 4 Tables and 21 Figures

Details

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Executive summary

Vasily Astrov
in: Recovery Beating Expectations
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2021, October 2021 , pp. I-VI
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