Lithuania
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 2795 | 2801 | 2832 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 0.0 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 2.7 | 3.0 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 26320 | 28950 | 31480 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -1.3 | 19.5 | 9.6 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 8.5 | 7.1 | 6.0 | 7.2 | 6.7 | 6.3 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 1429 | 1579 | 1789 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 1.1 | 4.6 | 18.9 | 10.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -6.5 | -1.2 | -0.6 | -2.0 | -2.0 | -1.5 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 46.3 | 43.7 | 38.4 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 7.3 | 1.1 | -5.1 | -2.5 | -2.0 | -1.8 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 4002 | 2534 | 580 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 80.7 | 79.4 | 68.2 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
publication_icon
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2023
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Nina Vujanović, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2023
51 pages including 3 Tables, 24 Figures and 1 Box
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: Sailing Through Rough Waters
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2023, April 2023 , pp. I-VI
Details
In early 2023, the Lithuanian economy performed worse than had previously been expected. In the first three months of the year, household consumption declined for the third quarter in a row and is likely to revive only slightly during the rest of the year. Although public gross fixed investment is growing more strongly this year than in 2022, overall investment will decline as firms deplete their inventories. The budgetary stance remains rigid, and following a mild 0.7% in 2022, the deficit is likely to reach around 1.5% this year. External demand from EU countries has been weaker than expected. The ongoing recession means that the unemployment rate in 2023 is expected to increase by more than 1 percentage point, to 7.2%. Although energy prices have fallen substantially, solid fuel, food and hospitality kept inflation running at more than 10% in May 2023; that figure will drop below 3% only in 2024. We expect real GDP to grow slightly (by 0.3%) in 2023, to be followed by an upswing of 2.7% in 2024 and 3% in 2025.In early 2023, the Lithuanian economy performed worse than had previously been expected. In the first three months of the year, household consumption declined for the third quarter in a row and is likely to revive only slightly during the rest of the year. Although public gross fixed investment is growing more strongly this year than in 2022, overall investment will decline as firms deplete their inventories. The budgetary stance remains rigid, and following a mild 0.7% in 2022, the deficit is likely to reach around 1.5% this year. External demand from EU countries has been weaker than expected. The ongoing recession means that the unemployment rate in 2023 is expected to increase by more than 1 percentage point, to 7.2%. Although energy prices have fallen substantially, solid fuel, food and hospitality kept inflation running at more than 10% in May 2023; that figure will drop below 3% only in 2024. We expect real GDP to grow slightly (by 0.3%) in 2023, to be followed by an upswing of 2.7% in 2024 and 3% in 2025.