Lithuania
Household consumption will remain the main driver of GDP growth in 2019-2021, pushed by swiftly rising wages and increased labour immigration from Ukraine and Belarus. Public investment in infrastructure, supported by EU funds, continues to grow at good pace. External demand should remain strong in 2019, but will expand at somewhat slower pace in the following two years. For 2019, we forecast GDP to grow by 3.3%, followed by 2.7% in 2020 and 2.4% in 2021.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 2868 | 2828 | 2801 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 2.4 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 2.4 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 22000 | 23500 | 24900 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 2.8 | 7.0 | 4.8 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 7.9 | 7.1 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 4.8 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 774 | 840 | 920 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 0.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 40.0 | 39.4 | 34.2 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -0.8 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 109 | 1023 | 732 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 85.2 | 83.6 | 78.5 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Monthly Report No. 6/2019
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Hermine Vidovic and Goran Vuksic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 6, June 2019
27 pages including 24 Tables and 1 Figure
LITHUANIA: Domestic demand keeps growth buoyant
Sebastian Leitner
in: Moving Into the Slow Lane
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2019, March 2019 , pp. 104-107
Details and Buy