Lithuania

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The economy has had to deal with the blow caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Steep rises in the cost of energy and other imported inputs will push the inflation rate close to 20% this year. A decline in household and business sentiment alike means that consumption and investment activity will lose momentum in the second half of this year, and particularly in 2023. The government is trying to counter the loss of households’ purchasing power and to assist enterprises with energy support measures. It should also manage to keep economic activity afloat with its planned public investments. We expect real GDP to grow by 2.1% in 2022, to be followed by a slump to 0.9% in 2023 and then an upswing to 2.6% in 2024.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201920202021202220232024
Population, 1000 persons279427952801...
GDP, real change in %4.60.06.02.10.92.6
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)262402612028750...
Gross industrial production, real change in %3.0-1.319.5...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average6.38.57.16.27.06.5
Average gross monthly wages, EUR129614291579...
Consumer prices, % p.a.2.21.14.619.58.04.0
Fiscal balance in % of GDP0.5-7.0-1.0-3.0-2.5-2.0
Public debt in % of GDP35.846.343.7...
Current account in % of GDP3.57.31.1-6.2-6.0-5.3
FDI inflow, EUR m306039792512...
Gross external debt in % of GDP70.175.377.0...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Executive summary

Branimir Jovanović
in: Bracing for the Winter
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2022, October 2022 , pp. I-VIII
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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2022

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Bernhard Moshammer, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Nina Vujanović, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2022
58 pages including 4 Tables and 21 Figures

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