Lithuania
Growth accelerated again in 2019, underpinned in particular by public and private investment. A further decline in unemployment, a minimum wage hike and a reduction of the effective income tax rate have resulted in rapid increases in the purchasing power of households. External demand has been stronger than expected in 2019 but is likely to abate in the coming two years. For 2019, we estimate real GDP growth of 3.6%, followed by a projected slowdown to 2.4% in 2020 and 2.6% in 2021.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 2868 | 2828 | 2802 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 2.6 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 2.6 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 22100 | 23500 | 25000 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 2.8 | 7.0 | 4.8 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 7.9 | 7.1 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 5.5 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 774 | 840 | 924 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 0.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 39.9 | 39.3 | 34.1 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -1.1 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 1190 | 1204 | 1201 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 85.1 | 83.4 | 78.2 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
LITHUANIA: Still growing swiftly, but slowdown ahead
Sebastian Leitner
in: Braced for Fallout from Global Slowdown
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2019, November 2019 , pp. 84-86
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 6/2019
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Hermine Vidovic and Goran Vuksic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 6, June 2019
27 pages including 24 Tables and 1 Figure