map Lithuania
Although the economy has been buffeted by Russia’s war on Ukraine and the world-wide decline in economic activity, recent developments appear less gloomy. External demand from EU countries has picked up more strongly than expected. The government’s energy and income-support measures to assist businesses and households in 2023 and the additional public investment announced are helping to stabilise overall sentiment in the economy. The influx of refugees and immigrant workers is reducing existing tensions in the labour market, while the unemployment rate remains low. Although energy prices are again declining, we have raised our inflation forecast for 2023 to 10%, as commodity prices and wages will rise more sharply than previously expected. Lithuania is heading for a period of stagnation, rather than recession; however, the economy should manage to overcome this as early as in the second half of 2023. We expect real GDP to continue to grow – by 1.3% in 2023, followed by 2.8% in 2024 and 3% in 2025.
Main Economic Indicators202020212022202320242025
Population, 1000 persons279528012833...
GDP, real change in %
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)262902897031660...
Gross industrial production, real change in %-1.319.59.6...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average8.
Average gross monthly wages, EUR142915791785...
Consumer prices, % p.a.1.14.618.
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-7.0-1.0-2.0-4.5-2.8-2.2
Public debt in % of GDP46.343.739.2...
Current account in % of GDP7.31.1-4.1-5.0-4.0-3.0
FDI inflow, EUR m39792512666...
Gross external debt in % of GDP75.377.063.0...

Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.


Monthly Report No. 1/2023

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Nina Vujanović, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2023
44 pages including 4 Tables and 16 Figures



Executive summary

Branimir Jovanović
in: Bracing for the Winter
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2022, October 2022 , pp. I-VIII