Lithuania
Given the improving situation in the labour market and sharply rising incomes, household consumption will remain the most important driver of growth in 2017 and the years thereafter. We expect GDP to expand somewhat faster, by 3% in 2017, followed by a minor upswing to 3.2% in 2018 and 3.3% in 2019. Assumed drivers of that growth are also an expected economic upswing in Russia and the euro area and increasing public investment activity facilitated by inflows of EU funds.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 2932 | 2905 | 2868 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 3.5 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.3 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 20700 | 21600 | 21900 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 0.1 | 4.9 | 2.8 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 10.7 | 9.1 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 6.8 | 6.3 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 677 | 714 | 774 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 0.2 | -0.7 | 0.7 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.5 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -0.7 | -0.2 | 0.3 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 40.5 | 42.7 | 40.2 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 3.6 | -2.3 | -0.9 | -0.7 | -0.2 | -0.2 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 387 | 873 | 345 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 69.8 | 75.9 | 86.4 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2017
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2017
27 pages including 1 Table and 2 Figures
LITHUANIA: Still strong outward migration despite high wage growth
Sebastian Leitner
in: Cautious Upturn in CESEE: Haunted by the Spectre of Uncertainty
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2017, March 2017 , pp. 89-92
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