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Economic growth stood at 2.6% in Q1 2026, supported primarily by domestic demand. That said, a significant part of the momentum stems from one-off or temporary factors. Investment remains the main support, boosted by EU-funded projects and public spending, with private investment slowly regaining its vigour. At the same time, household consumption is relatively soft and is only expected to receive a short-lived lift from pension-fund withdrawals linked to the reform in 2026, pointing to some fragility in underlying demand.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202320242025202620272028
Population, 1000 persons287228882910...
GDP, real change in %0.73.02.92.21.82.5
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)329303494036170...
Gross industrial production, real change in %-5.34.03.3...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average6.97.16.96.96.66.3
Average gross monthly wages, EUR201422232411...
Consumer prices, % p.a.8.70.93.43.42.72.3
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-0.7-1.3-1.8-2.4-2.3-2.5
Public debt in % of GDP37.138.039.5...
Current account in % of GDP1.13.20.9-0.3-1.1-1.7
FDI inflow, EUR m354843382760...
Gross external debt in % of GDP68.777.493.1...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2026

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Ioannis Gutzianas, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Biljana Jovanovikj, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Isilda Mara, Michał Możdżeń, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Marina Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2026
52 pages including 5 Tables

Details

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Executive summary

Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
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