Lithuania
In H2 2024, GDP growth continued to accelerate and probably reached 2.4%, year on year. Household consumption was again the biggest driver of growth – something that is also suggested by the retail trade data for the last months of 2024. As expected, external demand from the country’s main trading partners revived and enterprises replenished their stocks. Despite that, gross fixed capital formation in the private sector declined slightly, while public investment rose. In 2024 as a whole, consumer prices continued to fall (although that trend has recently gone into reverse). For 2025, we expect inflation to pick up to 2%, driven by strong growth in wages. Following a budget deficit of only 1.8% of GDP in 2024, we are likely to see a rise to 2.5% this year, driven particularly by the hike in defence expenditure to 3% of GDP. Although GDP picked up considerably in 2024, the unemployment rate increased slightly, to 7.2%. However, in 2025 and beyond we will again see a gradual decline. We expect GDP growth to accelerate to 3% in 2025, followed by 2.7% in 2026 as well as in 2027.
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FORECAST* |
| Main Economic Indicators | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 2832 | 2872 | 2888 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 2.5 | 0.3 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.7 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 31650 | 33030 | 34820 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 5.5 | -5.3 | 4.0 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 6.0 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 6.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 1789 | 2014 | 2218 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 18.9 | 8.7 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -0.7 | -0.7 | -2.0 | -2.5 | -2.3 | -2.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 38.1 | 37.3 | 38.5 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -6.1 | 1.1 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 2.7 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 2291 | 3548 | 2665 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 66.8 | 69.2 | 73.0 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
publication_icon
Monthly Report No. 1/2025
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Maciej J. Grodzicki, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2025
50 pages including 6 Tables and 13 Figures
Details
publication_icon
Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
In H2 2024, GDP growth continued to accelerate and probably reached 2.4%, year on year. Household consumption was again the biggest driver of growth – something that is also suggested by the retail trade data for the last months of 2024. As expected, external demand from the country’s main trading partners revived and enterprises replenished their stocks. Despite that, gross fixed capital formation in the private sector declined slightly, while public investment rose. In 2024 as a whole, consumer prices continued to fall (although that trend has recently gone into reverse). For 2025, we expect inflation to pick up to 2%, driven by strong growth in wages. Following a budget deficit of only 1.8% of GDP in 2024, we are likely to see a rise to 2.5% this year, driven particularly by the hike in defence expenditure to 3% of GDP. Although GDP picked up considerably in 2024, the unemployment rate increased slightly, to 7.2%. However, in 2025 and beyond we will again see a gradual decline. We expect GDP growth to accelerate to 3% in 2025, followed by 2.7% in 2026 as well as in 2027.
