Serbia
After posting comfortably its strongest real GDP increase for a decade in 2018, the Serbian economy has adjusted back to a more muted growth path, and should expand by just under 3% this year. Growth of 2.5-3% is likely during the rest of the forecast period, with the government set to remain focussed on FDI-driven investment. Political tensions in the region are rising, but would have to get much worse to constitute a significant downside risk to the economy.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 7058 | 7021 | 6983 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 3.3 | 2.0 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.6 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 11400 | 11600 | 12400 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 5.2 | 3.9 | 1.3 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 15.3 | 13.5 | 12.7 | 11.5 | 10.8 | 10.3 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 516 | 544 | 580 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 1.1 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.6 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 67.8 | 57.9 | 53.7 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -2.9 | -5.2 | -5.2 | -6.0 | -5.5 | -5.4 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 2127 | 2548 | 3496 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 72.1 | 65.3 | 62.6 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
SERBIA: Back to reality
Richard Grieveson
in: Braced for Fallout from Global Slowdown
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2019, November 2019 , pp. 110-113
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 6/2019
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Hermine Vidovic and Goran Vuksic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 6, June 2019
27 pages including 24 Tables and 1 Figure