Serbia
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 6623 | 6586 | 6550 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.6 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 18600 | 20620 | 21920 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 2.6 | 3.2 | 0.8 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 9.5 | 8.6 | 8.7 | 8.0 | 7.8 | 7.6 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 1011 | 1156 | 1289 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 12.1 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 3.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -2.1 | -2.0 | -2.4 | -3.0 | -3.0 | -2.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 48.4 | 46.9 | 44.0 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -2.4 | -4.5 | -4.5 | -4.0 | -4.0 | -3.9 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 4564 | 5231 | 3267 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 58.6 | 58.4 | 56.7 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
publication_icon
Monthly Report No. 10/2026
Vasily Astrov, Nadya Heger, Philipp Heimberger, Mario Holzner and Branimir Jovanović
wiiw Monthly Report No. 10, October 2026
32 pages including 7 Figures
publication_icon
Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
The long-awaited parliamentary elections will take place on 25 October, at a moment when Serbia’s economy is finally catching its breath – inflation is close to 2% and GDP growth is at its highest for two years. Long-time leader Aleksandar Vučić faces the Student List, which emerged from two years of protests against corruption and bad governance. The atmosphere is tense, and the result is likely to be razor thin – and will probably be contested by whichever side loses. If Vučić stays in power, economic policy will continue as before, though most likely with a tighter authoritarian grip. If the Student List wins, policy is likely to shift towards supporting domestic companies and higher value-added activities, with a stronger focus on democratic standards and the rule of law.