Serbia
The outlook for the economy remains broadly positive, but a return to 2018 levels of growth is not likely. Faltering production in the automotive industry and the 100% tariffs on exports to Kosovo pose short-term challenges, but consumption and especially investment are holding up well. Macroeconomic stability has improved, but political risk – emanating from both domestic and international sources – has risen.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 7058 | 7021 | 6986 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 3.3 | 2.0 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.6 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 11400 | 11600 | 12300 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 5.2 | 3.9 | 1.3 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 15.3 | 13.5 | 12.7 | 11.5 | 10.8 | 10.3 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 516 | 544 | 580 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 1.1 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 67.8 | 57.9 | 58.5 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -2.9 | -5.2 | -5.2 | -5.2 | -4.9 | -4.7 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 2127 | 2548 | 3496 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 72.1 | 65.3 | 62.9 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Monthly Report No. 6/2019
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Hermine Vidovic and Goran Vuksic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 6, June 2019
27 pages including 24 Tables and 1 Figure
SERBIA: Slowdown ahead after a strong 2018
Richard Grieveson
in: Moving Into the Slow Lane
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2019, March 2019 , pp. 132-135
Details and Buy