Serbia

map Serbia
The war in Ukraine will be costly for Serbia, due to its close relations with Russia. In the short term, the country will face slower economic growth and higher prices: we are revising our GDP forecast for 2022 downwards to 3.6% (from 4.9%) and our inflation forecast upwards to 10% (from 4.5%). But the real challenges facing Serbia stem from its policy of attempting a balancing act between the EU and Russia, which will be hard to maintain in the coming years.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201920202021202220232024
Population, 1000 persons694568996850...
GDP, real change in %4.3-0.97.43.63.43.4
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)128001276014130...
Gross industrial production, real change in %0.30.46.4...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average10.49.011.010.510.09.5
Average gross monthly wages, EUR643706772...
Consumer prices, % p.a.1.71.64.110.06.04.0
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-0.2-8.1-4.1-3.5-3.0-2.5
Public debt in % of GDP52.857.857.1...
Current account in % of GDP-6.9-4.1-4.4-6.5-6.8-7.2
FDI inflow, EUR m381530393863...
Gross external debt in % of GDP61.465.868.5...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Executive summary

Vasily Astrov
in: Overshadowed by War and Sanctions
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2022, April 2022 , pp. I-VII
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Monthly Report No. 1/2022

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Marcus How, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Nina Vujanović, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2022
58 pages including 4 Tables and 21 Figures

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