Serbia
Current economic growth and the near-term outlook are as good as has been the case at any time since the global financial crisis a decade ago. A combination of FDI inflows and private consumption are likely to remain the key growth drivers. The economy continues to face challenges, although efforts to bring down public debt and clean up the banking sector have been partly successful. Over the medium term, growth will trend down towards 3%, implying very slow convergence with Western Europe.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 7058 | 7021 | 6986 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 3.3 | 2.0 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 2.8 | . |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 11400 | 11600 | 12300 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 5.2 | 3.9 | 4.2 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 15.2 | 13.6 | 12.6 | 13.0 | 12.0 | . |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 516 | 544 | 599 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 1.1 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 3.0 | . |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -1.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 67.8 | 57.9 | 58.0 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -2.9 | -5.2 | -5.1 | -4.8 | -4.6 | . |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 2127 | 2548 | 2800 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 72.1 | 65.3 | 61.5 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
SERBIA: On the crest of a wave
Richard Grieveson
in: Strong Growth Amid Increased Negative Risks
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2018, November 2018 , pp. 126-129
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 6/2018
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 6, June 2018
27 pages including 1 Table and 1 Figure