Serbia
Serbia finished 2020 as one of the best-performing European economies, and started 2021 in a similar manner. Real GDP fell by just 1% in 2020, fuelled by strong public spending. Thanks to an excellent vaccine roll-out and growth in high-frequency indicators, we project 5% growth for 2021. The main risks lie with the ongoing pandemic wave, which might stall the economy for a while, and the announced fiscal consolidation, which could hamper growth if undertaken too soon.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 6983 | 6945 | 6915 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 4.5 | 4.2 | -1.0 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 4.2 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 12020 | 12710 | 12810 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 12.7 | 10.4 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 7.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 580 | 643 | 706 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.2 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | 0.6 | -0.2 | -8.1 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 54.4 | 52.9 | 58.2 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -4.8 | -6.9 | -4.3 | -5.6 | -6.5 | -7.3 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 3464 | 3815 | 3014 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 62.2 | 61.5 | 66.3 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
SERBIA: Setting an example for the region
Branimir Jovanovic
in: Darkest before the dawn?
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2021, April 2021 , pp. 119-122
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 5/2020
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 5, May 2020
96 pages including 27 Tables and 39 Figures