Serbia

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Everything in Serbia this year revolves around the massive student protests, now in their fifth month. While they are currently weighing on economic activity, they are also likely to bring about changes that should improve medium-term growth prospects. Another source of risk is the unfolding global trade war, which is expected to affect Serbia indirectly – primarily through reduced exports to the EU, especially in the automotive sector. A potential offsetting factor is the German fiscal stimulus package, though it remains unclear to what extent it will benefit industries that import from Serbia. For these reasons, we are revising our growth forecast for 2025 downward, to 3%, and at the same time adjusting our projections for the following two years upward, to 4%.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202220232024202520262027
Population, 1000 persons666466236583...
GDP, real change in %2.63.83.93.04.04.0
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)164501865020120...
Gross industrial production, real change in %1.92.63.2...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average9.69.58.68.37.97.5
Average gross monthly wages, EUR88010111156...
Consumer prices, % p.a.11.712.14.84.23.53.0
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-3.0-2.1-2.0-2.5-3.0-3.5
Public debt in % of GDP52.948.447.5...
Current account in % of GDP-6.6-2.4-6.3-6.0-5.7-5.6
FDI inflow, EUR m443245645211...
Gross external debt in % of GDP66.060.460.5...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

publication_icon

Monthly Report No. 1/2025

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Maciej J. Grodzicki, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2025
50 pages including 6 Tables and 13 Figures

Details

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Executive summary

Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details


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