Serbia
All in all a growth of 2.5% this year looks somewhat optimistic in view of the first-quarter data. If growth in the second quarter comes in below 3%, a downward revision will be called for. In addition, the policy of the new government is yet to be formulated. If stability becomes a concern again, 3% growth may prove elusive in the medium term also.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 7132 | 7095 | 7058 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | -1.8 | 0.8 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.8 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 10100 | 10500 | 10700 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -6.4 | 8.3 | 4.7 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 18.9 | 17.7 | 15.3 | 15.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 524 | 506 | 516 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 2.1 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -6.6 | -3.7 | -1.3 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 70.4 | 74.7 | 71.9 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -6.0 | -4.7 | -4.0 | -3.9 | -4.2 | -3.9 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 1500 | 2114 | 2080 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 77.1 | 78.3 | 76.7 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2017
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2017
27 pages including 1 Table and 2 Figures
SERBIA: Recovery, finally
Vladimir Gligorov
in: Cautious Upturn in CESEE: Haunted by the Spectre of Uncertainty
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2017, March 2017 , pp. 111-114
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