Serbia
The economy will suffer badly this year from the Coronavirus fallout, and we expect a full-year decline in real GDP of 4%. This will be less severe than in many other CESEE countries, reflecting in part the government’s quite ambitious fiscal stimulus plans, and a much lower reliance on tourism in Serbia than in some of its regional peers. Foreign direct investment (FDI) and exports will suffer badly this year and next, but thereafter could benefit from ‘near-shoring’ by Western European investors.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 7021 | 6983 | 6950 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 2.0 | 4.4 | 4.2 | -4.0 | 4.0 | . |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 11600 | 12200 | 13000 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 13.5 | 12.7 | 10.4 | 13.4 | 12.7 | . |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 544 | 580 | 643 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 1.6 | . |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | 1.1 | 0.6 | -0.2 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 57.9 | 53.7 | 52.0 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -5.2 | -4.8 | -6.9 | -7.5 | -7.0 | . |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 2548 | 3464 | 3825 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 65.1 | 62.2 | 61.9 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Due to the unusually high level of uncertainty caused by COVID-19, we only present forecasts for 2020-2021.
Monthly Report No. 5/2020
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 5, May 2020
96 pages including 27 Tables and 39 Figures
SERBIA: Investment surge driving growth
Richard Grieveson
in: Uncertainty in Turbulent Times
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2020, March 2020 , pp. 135-138
Details and Buy