Serbia

map Serbia
Economic growth remains anaemic, largely due to weak FDI inflows. Real GDP is estimated to have grown by 2% in 2025, in line with our forecast and well below the 3.9% recorded a year earlier. The slowdown reflects, above all, a sharp fall in FDI inflows – down by roughly a third on the previous year. This decline has been visible across much of the Western Balkans and is likely linked to heightened global uncertainty and erratic policies across the ocean. However, it affects Serbia more than other countries of the region due to its heavy reliance on FDI as the main engine of growth.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202320242025202620272028
Population, 1000 persons662365866543...
GDP, real change in %3.73.92.02.83.64.0
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)1860020590....
Gross industrial production, real change in %2.63.20.8...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average9.58.68.58.38.07.7
Average gross monthly wages, EUR101111561289...
Consumer prices, % p.a.12.14.84.13.53.23.0
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-2.1-2.0-1.0-2.0-3.0-2.0
Public debt in % of GDP48.446.945.0...
Current account in % of GDP-2.4-4.5-4.9-4.0-4.2-4.5
FDI inflow, EUR m456452313477...
Gross external debt in % of GDP58.758.659.0...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 1/2026

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Maciej Grodzicki, Ioannis Gutzianas, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Biljana Jovanovikj, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Marina Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2026
58 pages including 6 Tables and 15 Figures

Details

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Executive summary

Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details


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