Serbia
Economic growth remains weak. Year-on-year growth in Q1 2026 was 3.2%, the highest rate since the end of 2024; but that reading is misleading, as it owes much to the low base from last year. Seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter growth was just 0.2%, which is less than 1% in annualised terms. Consumption was the only solid component, growing by around 5% year on year, while exports and investment were much weaker. The first data for Q2 point in a similar direction. Industrial production in April was up 3.4%, a slight improvement on the start of the year, but that was driven almost entirely by the resumption of activity by NIS (the country’s only oil refinery), which was not operating at the beginning of the year. We have therefore kept our GDP growth forecast unchanged, at 2% in 2026 – the lowest in the Western Balkans.
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FORECAST* |
| Main Economic Indicators | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 6623 | 6586 | 6550 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 3.7 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 3.5 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 18600 | 20590 | 21590 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 2.6 | 3.2 | 0.8 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 9.5 | 8.6 | 8.7 | 8.5 | 8.2 | 7.9 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 1011 | 1156 | 1289 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 12.1 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 3.5 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -2.1 | -2.0 | -2.4 | -3.0 | -3.5 | -2.5 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 48.4 | 46.9 | 44.7 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -2.4 | -4.5 | -4.9 | -4.9 | -4.7 | -4.2 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 4564 | 5231 | 3477 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 58.7 | 58.6 | 57.7 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
publication_icon
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2026
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Ioannis Gutzianas, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Biljana Jovanovikj, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Isilda Mara, Michał Możdżeń, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Marina Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2026
52 pages including 5 Tables
Details
publication_icon
Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
Economic growth remains weak. Year-on-year growth in Q1 2026 was 3.2%, the highest rate since the end of 2024; but that reading is misleading, as it owes much to the low base from last year. Seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter growth was just 0.2%, which is less than 1% in annualised terms. Consumption was the only solid component, growing by around 5% year on year, while exports and investment were much weaker. The first data for Q2 point in a similar direction. Industrial production in April was up 3.4%, a slight improvement on the start of the year, but that was driven almost entirely by the resumption of activity by NIS (the country’s only oil refinery), which was not operating at the beginning of the year. We have therefore kept our GDP growth forecast unchanged, at 2% in 2026 – the lowest in the Western Balkans.
