Serbia
The economy is recovering, helped by stronger private consumption, investment and exports. Agriculture should pick up after a bad 2017, while sovereign ratings upgrades have bolstered sentiment. A focus on attracting more FDI will keep the government focused on domestic stability and gradually improved international relations. The announcement of a 2025 target date for EU accession is probably too ambitious, but could serve as a strong incentive for further reforms.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 7095 | 7058 | 7021 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 0.8 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 2.8 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 10500 | 10700 | 10900 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 7.3 | 5.2 | 3.9 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 17.7 | 15.2 | 13.6 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 12.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 506 | 516 | 544 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 1.4 | 1.1 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 3.5 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -3.7 | -1.3 | 1.2 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 74.7 | 71.9 | 61.6 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -3.7 | -3.1 | -5.7 | -5.0 | -5.1 | -5.1 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 2114 | 2127 | 2545 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 78.3 | 76.5 | 69.7 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Monthly Report No. 6/2018
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 6, June 2018
27 pages including 1 Table and 1 Figure
SERBIA: Slow recovery continues
Vladimir Gligorov
in: Riding the Global Growth Wave
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2018, March 2018 , pp. 138-141
Details and Buy