Serbia
Serbia has been among the best-performing European countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. GDP fell by just 0.8% in the first half of the year, and data for Q3 suggest a solid recovery. We are thus upgrading our forecast for 2020, from -4% to -2%. The good results are mainly due to the massive fiscal support by the government, which has borrowed abroad and used the money to support the economy during the crisis. This cannot continue indefinitely, and prospects for the future depend on the viability of its current economic model, based on attracting FDI, in the post-coronavirus world.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 7021 | 6983 | 6945 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 2.1 | 4.5 | 4.2 | -2.0 | 4.5 | 4.1 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 11360 | 11990 | 12730 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 13.5 | 12.7 | 10.4 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 7.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 544 | 580 | 643 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | 1.1 | 0.6 | -0.2 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 58.6 | 54.4 | 52.9 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -5.2 | -4.8 | -6.9 | -5.7 | -5.5 | -5.7 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 2548 | 3464 | 3825 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 65.1 | 62.2 | 61.5 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
SERBIA: Expansionary fiscal policy helping the economy weather the crisis
Branimir Jovanovic
in: No Quick Recovery in Sight, with Coronavirus Risks Looming Large
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2020, November 2020 , pp. 109-112
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 5/2020
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 5, May 2020
96 pages including 27 Tables and 39 Figures