Serbia
The robust economic recovery, together with higher energy and food prices, has brought the return of inflation, at least temporarily. Headline inflation in May 2021 reached 3.6% year on year, the highest in four years. At 2.1% in May, core inflation is also up. We are hence upgrading our inflation projection for 2021 from 2% to 3%. The central bank will likely increase its policy rate in the second half of the year.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 6983 | 6945 | 6899 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 4.5 | 4.2 | -1.0 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 4.2 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 12030 | 12710 | 12810 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 12.7 | 10.4 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 7.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 580 | 643 | 706 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.2 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | 0.6 | -0.2 | -8.1 | -4.0 | -3.0 | -2.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 54.4 | 52.9 | 58.2 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -4.8 | -6.9 | -4.2 | -5.0 | -6.0 | -6.6 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 3464 | 3815 | 3039 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 62.2 | 61.5 | 66.3 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2021
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanovic, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2021
42 pages including 4 Tables and 15 Figures
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SERBIA: Setting an example for the region
Branimir Jovanovic
in: Darkest before the dawn?
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2021, April 2021 , pp. 119-122
Details and Buy
The economy got off to a flying start in 2021: GDP in Q1 grew by 1.7% year on year and 1.9% quarter on quarter, seasonally adjusted. This happened despite a severe pandemic wave, suggesting that the economy is learning how to live with COVID-19. The main driver of growth was government investment: it grew by 59% year on year, leading to a rise in total investment of 10% and an increase in construction of 19.5%. Exports of goods and services also contributed, growing by 8.9% (in real terms). The rest of the year should see even stronger growth. The pandemic has moderated and the vaccination campaign has been quite successful, boosting consumption and investment. Industrial production in April grew 34% year on year, while retail trade was 42% up; both are now well above their pre-crisis levels. We are thus revising our growth forecast for 2021 from 5% to 6%. The robust economic recovery, together with higher energy and food prices, has brought the return of inflation, at least temporarily. Headline inflation in May 2021 reached 3.6% year on year, the highest in four years. At 2.1% in May, core inflation is also up. We are hence upgrading our inflation projection for 2021 from 2% to 3%. The central bank will likely increase its policy rate in the second half of the year.