Serbia

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The economy showed solid, broad-based growth in the first half of the year, but much of this is due to the relatively weak first half of 2023. We expect the pace to slow in the second half of 2024. Real wages are rising strongly, unemployment has fallen to a historic low, the fiscal position appears stable, and monetary policy has started to ease. However, numerous structural problems (of which we repeatedly warn) raise concerns about whether this growth can be sustained in the coming years.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202220232024202520262027
Population, 1000 persons66646623....
GDP, real change in %2.63.83.83.73.7.
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)1645018660....
Gross industrial production, real change in %1.92.6....
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average9.59.48.48.48.0.
Average gross monthly wages, EUR8801011....
Consumer prices, % p.a.11.712.14.83.52.8.
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-3.0-2.1-1.0-1.0-1.0.
Public debt in % of GDP52.948.4....
Current account in % of GDP-6.6-2.4-4.0-3.5-4.0.
FDI inflow, EUR m44324564....
Gross external debt in % of GDP66.060.4....


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2024

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2024
45 pages including 5 Tables and 12 Figures

Details

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Executive summary

Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII Details

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