Serbia

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The rate of inflation has slowed, but only gradually: it remained close to double digits at the end of 2023 – one of the highest figures in CESEE. Real wages began to pick up towards the end of the year, yet they are still below the level seen at the end of 2021. Economic activity showed signs of improvement, bolstered by robust fiscal support ahead of the parliamentary elections in December. The ruling party’s landslide victory has reinforced its grip on power, indicating that no shift in governance or economic policies is to be expected in the near future. Public investments are expected to remain strong, and FDI inflows are likely to stay robust, with the country continuing to attract investment from both West and East. However, structural challenges will persist. These include issues to do with the current economic model, such as the neglect of domestic private investment, lack of rule of law, widespread corruption and democratic backsliding, all of which will hinder the potential for higher growth rates. Reflecting recent developments, we have adjusted our inflation forecast for 2024 downward to 4.5% (from 5.5%) and our GDP growth forecast upward to 2.4% (from 2%).
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202120222023202420252026
Population, 1000 persons68346664....
GDP, real change in %7.72.52.02.42.73.0
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)1424015560....
Gross industrial production, real change in %6.41.62.4...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average11.09.49.59.08.58.0
Average gross monthly wages, EUR772880....
Consumer prices, % p.a.4.111.912.14.53.52.8
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-4.1-3.2-2.0-1.5-1.0-1.0
Public debt in % of GDP57.155.6....
Current account in % of GDP-4.2-6.9-2.5-3.0-3.5-4.0
FDI inflow, EUR m38864432....
Gross external debt in % of GDP68.469.3....


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 1/2024

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2024
50 pages including 5 Tables and 18 Figures

Details

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Executive summary

Branimir Jovanović
in: Beneath the Veneer of Calm
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2023, October 2023 , pp. I-VI
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