Serbia
After posting comfortably its strongest real GDP increase for a decade in 2018, the Serbian economy has adjusted back to a more muted growth path, and should expand by just under 3% this year. Growth of 2.5-3% is likely during the rest of the forecast period, with the government set to remain focussed on FDI-driven investment. Political tensions in the region are rising, but would have to get much worse to constitute a significant downside risk to the economy.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 7021 | 6983 | 6950 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 2.0 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | . |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 11600 | 12300 | . | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 3.9 | 1.3 | -0.5 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 13.5 | 12.7 | 10.7 | 10.8 | 10.3 | . |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 544 | 580 | 638 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.6 | . |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.7 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 57.9 | 53.7 | 52.0 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -5.2 | -5.2 | -6.0 | -5.5 | -5.4 | . |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 2548 | 3496 | 5000 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 65.3 | 62.6 | 59.0 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
SERBIA: Back to reality
Richard Grieveson
in: Braced for Fallout from Global Slowdown
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2019, November 2019 , pp. 110-113
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 6/2019
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Hermine Vidovic and Goran Vuksic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 6, June 2019
27 pages including 24 Tables and 1 Figure