Bosnia and Herzegovina
Inflation remained stable at 2% in Q1 2024, with no new inflationary pressures on the horizon. We are therefore reducing our inflation forecast for 2024 by 0.4 percentage points, to 2.4%. Economic activity is presenting mixed signals: industrial production and the export of goods declined in the first three months of 2024 compared to the same period last year, while imports rose. On a positive note, retail sales increased in Q1 2024, as did tourist overnight stays. Credit activity grew slowly in the first quarter of the year despite rising interest rates, and we expect private consumption to increase on the back of higher real wages. Considering all this, we are maintaining our GDP growth forecast for 2024 at 2.5%. On the political front, the resolution on the Srebrenica genocide that was adopted by United Nations General Assembly in May has heightened tensions both within the country and with Serbia over the past two months. This could further destabilise the country, hindering its economic development and delaying its efforts to join the European Union.
| |
|
|
|
FORECAST* |
| Main Economic Indicators | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 3453 | 3434 | 3410 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 3.4 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 10990 | 12270 | 12780 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 9.8 | 0.9 | -3.9 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 17.4 | 15.4 | 13.2 | 12.9 | 12.7 | 12.4 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 788 | 881 | 995 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 2.0 | 14.0 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -0.3 | -0.4 | -1.2 | -0.5 | -0.7 | -1.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 33.9 | 29.3 | 26.9 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -1.8 | -4.3 | -2.8 | -3.6 | -3.4 | -3.2 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 610 | 754 | 874 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 57.2 | 51.4 | 48.9 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
publication_icon
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2024
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2024
45 pages including 5 Tables and 12 Figures
Details
publication_icon
Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
Inflation remained stable at 2% in Q1 2024, with no new inflationary pressures on the horizon. We are therefore reducing our inflation forecast for 2024 by 0.4 percentage points, to 2.4%. Economic activity is presenting mixed signals: industrial production and the export of goods declined in the first three months of 2024 compared to the same period last year, while imports rose. On a positive note, retail sales increased in Q1 2024, as did tourist overnight stays. Credit activity grew slowly in the first quarter of the year despite rising interest rates, and we expect private consumption to increase on the back of higher real wages. Considering all this, we are maintaining our GDP growth forecast for 2024 at 2.5%. On the political front, the resolution on the Srebrenica genocide that was adopted by United Nations General Assembly in May has heightened tensions both within the country and with Serbia over the past two months. This could further destabilise the country, hindering its economic development and delaying its efforts to join the European Union.
