Bosnia and Herzegovina
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 3475 | 3453 | . | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | -3.1 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 2.5 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 9790 | 10990 | . | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -6.4 | 9.8 | . | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 15.9 | 17.4 | 16.4 | 16.1 | 15.7 | 15.6 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 755 | 788 | . | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | -1.1 | 2.0 | 14.2 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -5.3 | -0.3 | -1.0 | -0.5 | -0.2 | 0.7 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 36.6 | 34.4 | . | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -3.3 | -2.4 | -4.2 | -4.4 | -3.7 | -4.0 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 384 | 529 | . | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 64.7 | 59.0 | . | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
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Monthly Report No. 1/2023
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Nina Vujanović, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2023
44 pages including 4 Tables and 16 Figures
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Executive summary
Branimir Jovanović
in: Bracing for the Winter
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2022, October 2022 , pp. I-VIII
Details
The economy grew by an estimated 3.5% in 2022. This was better than expected, thanks to positive momentum in private consumption and investment in the first half year. Inflation probably averaged 14.2%, fuelled by rising food and energy prices; but it is likely to moderate to 8% this year. GDP is expected to grow by only 1.5% in 2023, as high inflation and interest rates in the euro area and at home are likely to undermine consumption and exports significantly. A general election was held in October, and although the new government has not yet been formed, its overall shape can already be discerned. There are some changes in the presidency, as the Bosniak representative will not be from the nationalist SDA party. Also, the coalition of eight parties will probably shunt the SDA into opposition in both the state parliament and the parliament of the Federation of BiH. However, the Serb and Croat representatives are again from nationalist parties at both state and entity level. The EU Council decided in December 2022 to grant Bosnia and Herzegovina EU candidate status, even though the required conditions have not been met. This should bring a degree of stability and perhaps improve economic prospects over the medium term, although the nationalist parties may make it hard to enact the legislation required for further progress towards the EU.