Bosnia and Herzegovina
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 3475 | 3453 | 3431 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | -3.0 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 2.5 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 9920 | 11120 | 12490 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -6.4 | 9.7 | 0.9 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 15.9 | 17.4 | 15.4 | 15.0 | 14.7 | 14.4 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 755 | 788 | 881 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | -1.1 | 2.0 | 14.0 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 2.5 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -5.2 | -0.3 | -0.4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 36.1 | 34.0 | 29.3 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -3.2 | -2.4 | -4.5 | -4.0 | -4.1 | -4.3 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 384 | 529 | 615 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 63.9 | 58.3 | 51.4 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
publication_icon
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2023
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Nina Vujanović, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2023
51 pages including 3 Tables, 24 Figures and 1 Box
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: Sailing Through Rough Waters
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2023, April 2023 , pp. I-VI
Details
Inflation has reverted to single digits for the first time since the beginning of 2022. Consequently, we have revised our inflation forecast for 2023 downward by 0.3 percentage points (to 8.7%). Despite this, the economy is showing no sign of improvement: industrial production declined by around 4% in the first four months of 2023, compared to the same period last year. Exports of goods also fell, while imports rose. On the other hand, tourist nights increased by 16% in the first quarter, compared to the same period last year. Credit activity has continued to grow slowly, despite the higher interest rates, which have risen by much less than in the euro area. Considering recent developments, we now expect GDP to grow by 1.5% in 2023 – a revision of 0.2 percentage points down on our spring forecast. This is largely in anticipation of feebler private consumption and weaker exports, stemming from less disposable income and lower demand from the main export markets in the EU. Eight months after the elections, governments have finally been formed at all levels. This may have a positive effect on the economy and could speed up reform, as there has been a drift away from nationalist parties at some levels of government.