Bosnia and Herzegovina
Political risk is unusually high following the recent election, and in particular the potential for a constitutional crisis in the Federation. This will have an impact on reforms and policy-making, but shouldn’t impact growth too much. We think that growth will remain in the range of 3-3.5% during the forecast period, with external factors such as remittances, exports and tourism likely to remain important. Inflation will stay low, while the labour market will improve slowly.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 3511 | 3505 | 3500 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 3.1 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 3.4 | . |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 9000 | 9300 | 9700 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.6 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 25.4 | 20.5 | 18.4 | 17.6 | 17.1 | . |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 665 | 676 | 697 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | -1.6 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | . |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | 1.2 | 2.6 | 2.8 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 40.4 | 36.1 | 31.7 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -4.7 | -4.7 | -4.5 | -4.6 | -4.5 | . |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 256 | 413 | 450 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 54.8 | 54.1 | 54.0 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA: Elevated political risk unlikely to derail growth
Richard Grieveson
in: Strong Growth Amid Increased Negative Risks
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2018, November 2018 , pp. 68-71
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 6/2018
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 6, June 2018
27 pages including 1 Table and 1 Figure