Bosnia and Herzegovina
Growth will average well over 3% during the forecast period, underpinned by low oil prices, remittance inflows, investment and supportive external conditions. Political volatility is likely, but the IMF presence will help to maintain macroeconomic stability and fiscal restraint. External borrowing needs will remain large, but a large share of the funding is concessional, reducing risks. The labour market is a major weakness, and the unemployment rate is only likely to fall gradually.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
| Population, 1000 persons. | 3526 | 3518 | 3515 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 1.1 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.4 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 8300 | 8800 | 9100 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 0.2 | 3.1 | 4.4 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 27.5 | 27.7 | 25.4 | 25.3 | 25.1 | 25.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 659 | 659 | 665 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | -0.9 | -1.0 | -1.1 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -2.0 | 0.7 | -1.0 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 44.0 | 45.2 | 45.2 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -7.3 | -5.5 | -4.5 | -3.8 | -3.8 | -3.8 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 392 | 264 | 236 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 51.9 | 53.7 | 54.3 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2017
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2017
27 pages including 1 Table and 2 Figures
BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA: Growth momentum robust amid political risks
Richard Grieveson
in: Cautious Upturn in CESEE: Haunted by the Spectre of Uncertainty
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2017, March 2017 , pp. 51-54
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