Bosnia and Herzegovina
Prospects for growth are more or less where they almost always are; below 3% this year and around that level in the medium run. The political crisis is not all that consequential for the economy, but does represent a barrier to improving international relations. The key sticking point is NATO integration. It is seen as an instrument of stability (as in Montenegro and North Macedonia), but it is opposed by the majority among the Bosnian Serbs. The EU for its part has run out of ideas when it comes to this country.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 3511 | 3504 | 3496 | 3500 | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 9000 | 9300 | 9800 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.6 | -5.4 | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 25.4 | 20.5 | 18.4 | 15.7 | 15.8 | 15.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 665 | 676 | 697 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | -1.6 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | 1.2 | 2.6 | 2.3 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 40.4 | 36.1 | 34.2 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -4.7 | -4.3 | -3.7 | -4.5 | -4.3 | -4.0 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 284 | 415 | 412 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 54.8 | 54.2 | 54.1 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA: Suffering in the face of external headwinds
Vladimir Gligorov
in: Braced for Fallout from Global Slowdown
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2019, November 2019 , pp. 49-51
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 6/2019
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Hermine Vidovic and Goran Vuksic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 6, June 2019
27 pages including 24 Tables and 1 Figure