Bosnia and Herzegovina

map Bosnia and Herzegovina
Inflation, which was 9.6% in the first four months of 2022, reached 14.4% in May. We now project that it will average 10% in 2022 as a whole, which equates to an upward revision of 2 percentage points (pp) from our spring forecast because prices are expected to increase further. The economy is expected to grow by only 1.5% in 2022 – a downward revision of 0.3 pp from our spring forecast. This is largely a reflection of falling private consumption as a result of rising prices and unaligned increases in wages and pensions. Furthermore, growth in both public and private investments is expected to slow due to the uncertainties caused by higher domestic and foreign political risks and the non-adoption of the country’s consolidated budget, which is holding back new public investments. Exports and imports will continue to rise, but this may well be at a slower rate than previously expected owing to lower disposable incomes and low EU growth projections. Moreover, funding for the country’s October general election has still not been secured as the country’s Croats insist on a change in the Election Law and no agreement has been reached so far. However, the date for the election has been announced and elections are expected to be held on 2nd of October.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201920202021202220232024
Population, 1000 persons349134753451...
GDP, real change in %2.8-3.17.51.41.82.3
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)10110984011010...
Gross industrial production, real change in %-5.3-6.49.8...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average15.715.917.416.816.315.7
Average gross monthly wages, EUR727755788...
Consumer prices, % p.a.0.6-1.12.010.04.03.0
Fiscal balance in % of GDP1.9-5.3-0.3-1.00.51.0
Public debt in % of GDP32.736.634.2...
Current account in % of GDP-2.8-3.8-2.1-2.8-3.1-4.0
FDI inflow, EUR m388364445...
Gross external debt in % of GDP63.164.358.1...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2022

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Bernhard Moshammer, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Nina Vujanović, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2022
58 pages including 4 Tables and 21 Figures

Details

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BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA: Local political tensions leave the country in limbo

Selena Duraković
in: Overshadowed by War and Sanctions
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2022, April 2022 , pp. 45-48
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