Bosnia and Herzegovina
Following the general elections in October 2018, the process of government formation at the country level and in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina is lengthy. Along with slightly deteriorating external conditions over the whole forecasting period, the political factors will negatively affect growth in 2019, with an estimated growth rate of 2.5%. Under the assumption that the political stalemate is resolved soon, we expect growth in 2020 and 2021 to mildly increase.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 3511 | 3504 | 3500 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.7 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 9000 | 9300 | 9700 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.6 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 25.4 | 20.5 | 18.4 | 17.0 | 15.6 | 14.1 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 665 | 676 | 697 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | -1.6 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | 1.2 | 2.6 | 2.8 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 40.4 | 36.1 | 31.6 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -4.7 | -4.7 | -4.2 | -4.6 | -4.3 | -4.0 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 256 | 413 | 409 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 54.8 | 54.1 | 53.9 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA: Once again politics impede stronger growth
Goran Vuksic
in: Moving Into the Slow Lane
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2019, March 2019 , pp. 67-70
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 6/2018
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 6, June 2018
27 pages including 1 Table and 1 Figure