Bosnia and Herzegovina
Growth momentum improved in the second half of 2016, and this should continue in 2017, as a strengthening labour market and rising wages boost private consumption. Industrial output should also post fairly strong growth, helping to underpin an improvement in exports, although this will continue to be held back somewhat by poor infrastructure. The IMF programme will face delays related to political infighting, but should continue to ensure relative fiscal discipline.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
| Population, 1000 persons. | 3526 | 3518 | 3515 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 1.1 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.1 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 8300 | 8800 | 9100 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 0.2 | 3.1 | 4.4 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 27.5 | 27.7 | 25.4 | 25.3 | 25.1 | 25.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 659 | 659 | 665 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | -0.9 | -1.0 | -1.1 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -2.0 | 0.7 | -1.0 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 44.0 | 45.2 | 45.2 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -7.3 | -5.5 | -4.5 | -5.8 | -5.7 | -5.7 |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 392 | 264 | 236 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 51.9 | 53.7 | 54.3 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA: Growth momentum robust amid political risks
Richard Grieveson
in: Cautious Upturn in CESEE: Haunted by the Spectre of Uncertainty
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2017, March 2017 , pp. 51-54
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2016
Vasily Astrov, Serkan Çiçek, Rumen Dobrinsky, Vladimir Gligorov, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Mario Holzner, Gabor Hunya, Simona Jokubauskaite, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2016
25 pages including 1 Table and 1 Figure
