Bosnia and Herzegovina
The COVID-19 pandemic caused the worst recession in Bosnia and Herzegovina since the Bosnian war, with an estimated GDP decline in 2020 of 5%. With the third wave of the pandemic, vaccine delays and the introduction of new restrictions, economic recovery will be delayed. Additional obstacles to growth include an inefficient fiscal structure and political disputes, which are preventing structural reform of the country and delaying its progress towards EU and NATO integration.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 3496 | 3491 | 3478 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 3.7 | 2.8 | -4.3 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 3.3 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 9620 | 10060 | 9970 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 1.6 | -5.3 | -6.0 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 18.4 | 15.7 | 18.0 | 17.6 | 16.1 | 15.3 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 697 | 727 | 755 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 1.4 | 0.6 | -1.1 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | 2.2 | 1.9 | -4.0 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 34.2 | 32.8 | 38.5 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -3.3 | -3.1 | -3.2 | -4.5 | -4.6 | -4.6 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 501 | 346 | 320 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 66.0 | 63.6 | 66.9 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA: Vaccine delays and limited fiscal capacity slow down the recovery
Selena Duraković
in: Darkest before the dawn?
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2021, April 2021 , pp. 52-55
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 5/2020
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 5, May 2020
96 pages including 27 Tables and 39 Figures