Bosnia and Herzegovina
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 3434 | 3422 | . | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 4.2 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 3.0 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 12350 | 13560 | . | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 0.9 | -3.9 | . | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 15.4 | 13.2 | 13.4 | 13.0 | 12.8 | 12.6 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 881 | 995 | . | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 14.0 | 6.1 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -0.4 | -1.2 | -0.7 | -0.7 | -1.0 | -0.5 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 29.3 | 26.4 | . | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -4.4 | -2.3 | -3.7 | -3.1 | -3.0 | -2.7 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 806 | 957 | . | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 51.6 | 47.5 | . | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
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Monthly Report No. 1/2025
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Maciej J. Grodzicki, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2025
50 pages including 6 Tables and 13 Figures
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
GDP growth for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 2.5%, and we estimate a figure of 2.4% for the whole year; that is 0.2 percentage points lower than our previous forecast, owing to the adverse effects of the floods in Q4. While consumption and investments have been steadily increasing, industrial production and exports have declined, leading to a widening of the current account deficit. We expect a somewhat better 2025, with 2.7% GDP growth, as private consumption is likely to benefit from higher real wages and government spending is projected to grow on the back of loans arranged with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EUR 115m) for infrastructure projects and the European Investment Bank (EUR 103m) for a wind farm and the energy transition. Also, thanks to Bosnia and Herzegovina’s close ties with the EU, the anticipated slight economic recovery in the bloc will benefit the country through exports and investment. Inflation was low during 2024, averaging an estimated 1.8%. However, the recent floods could lead to an increase in transport prices, which will put upward pressure on inflation this year. Accordingly, we have revised our inflation forecast for 2025 upwards by 0.2 percentage points, to 2%. In January 2025, the gross minimum wage in one country´s entity, Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, was raised by 61.5% – the biggest increase in its history. Other entity, Republika Srpska, also announced increase in minimum wage in 2025. The government has announced that it will subsidise small enterprises that have trouble paying the higher wage and will reduce certain taxes (although these measures have not yet been adopted). On the EU front, the European Commission announced in late October that the reforms needed to advance the country’s EU integration had ground to a halt in recent months.