Bosnia and Herzegovina
The shutdown caused by the COVID-19 pandemic is severely jeopardising business in the tourism, hospitality, manufacturing and transport sectors throughout BiH. The country’s structure means it has limited fiscal scope to mitigate the economic fallout and is reliant on foreign aid and loans. It also needs to cope with plummeting demand for products and services. The repercussions of the pandemic will be evident in 2020, with GDP contracting by 5%. The economy will recover somewhat in 2021, by 3%.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 3504 | 3496 | 3500 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.6 | -5.0 | 3.0 | . |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 9200 | 9900 | 10300 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 3.2 | 1.6 | -5.3 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 20.5 | 18.4 | 15.7 | 19.0 | 17.0 | . |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 676 | 697 | 727 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 0.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | -0.5 | 1.2 | . |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 36.1 | 34.2 | 32.4 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -4.3 | -3.7 | -3.6 | -8.0 | -6.0 | . |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 415 | 412 | 459 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 54.2 | 54.1 | 55.6 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
Due to the unusually high level of uncertainty caused by COVID-19, we only present forecasts for 2020-2021.
Monthly Report No. 5/2020
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 5, May 2020
96 pages including 27 Tables and 39 Figures
BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA: Fiscal consolidation amidst a potential migration crisis
Bernd Christoph Ströhm
in: Uncertainty in Turbulent Times
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2020, March 2020 , pp. 71-74
Details and Buy