Bosnia and Herzegovina

map Bosnia and Herzegovina
Despite the third wave of the pandemic, available data for the first four months of 2021 suggest an improvement in economic activity, with both industrial production and retail trade growing (by 11.5% and 11%, year on year, respectively). To an extent, this is a consequence of the low statistical base; however, industrial production grew in each of the first four months even on a monthly basis (seasonally adjusted). Average inflation was negative in the first four months of 2021 (-0.7%), but in May it reached +1.7%. Due to the stronger-than-expected economic recovery in the first four months, our forecasts for GDP growth and inflation have been revised upwards. We expect GDP to grow by 2.9% in 2021 and by 3.3% in 2022 – an upward revision of 0.4 percentage points (pp) for both years. Inflation will also rise further, to reach 1% in 2021 and 1.3% in 2022 – up 0.4 pp and 0.7 pp, respectively, on the previous forecast. Although the number of COVID-19 cases has declined significantly over the past two months, there remains the threat of a new wave, as the vaccination campaign is proving sluggish (with less than 10% of the population vaccinated). It must also rely on the COVAX scheme and donations, as no deal has yet been struck for the mass procurement of vaccines.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201820192020202120222023
Population, 1000 persons349634913475...
GDP, real change in %3.72.8-3.22.93.33.3
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)9620100609920...
Gross industrial production, real change in %1.6-5.3-6.4...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average18.415.715.915.815.014.5
Average gross monthly wages, EUR697727755...
Consumer prices, % p.a.1.40.6-1.11.01.31.2
Fiscal balance in % of GDP2.21.9-5.3-2.0-0.50.2
Public debt in % of GDP34.232.836.6...
Current account in % of GDP-3.3-3.1-3.2-3.6-3.8-4.1
FDI inflow, EUR m501346320...
Gross external debt in % of GDP66.063.664.9...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2021

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanovic, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2021
42 pages including 4 Tables and 15 Figures

Details

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BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA: Vaccine delays and limited fiscal capacity slow down the recovery

Selena Duraković
in: Darkest before the dawn?
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2021, April 2021 , pp. 52-55
Details and Buy


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