Bosnia and Herzegovina

map Bosnia and Herzegovina
Inflation has slowed considerably – from 14.1% in January 2023 to 1.7% in November; for the year as a whole, it is estimated to have averaged 6.2%. Its rapid decline in the last quarter of 2023 has led us to trim our previous inflation forecast for 2024 from 3% to 2.8%. The annual growth of real GDP in the first three quarters of 2023 was 1.6%, and was probably similar in Q4. While consumption and investments have been steadily increasing, net exports and industrial production declined in 2023. We anticipate a somewhat better situation in 2024, with 2% GDP growth, thanks to lower inflation, which will support real incomes. The country's future prospects are again in jeopardy, with the President of Republika Srpska recently threatening further secession activities if the High Representative imposes changes to property law.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202120222023202420252026
Population, 1000 persons345334343410...
GDP, real change in %7.44.21.72.02.42.8
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)109901227012780...
Gross industrial production, real change in %9.80.9-3.9...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average17.415.413.213.513.213.1
Average gross monthly wages, EUR788881995...
Consumer prices, % p.a.2.014.06.12.82.52.0
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-0.3-0.41.0-0.5-0.30.1
Public debt in % of GDP33.929.326.9...
Current account in % of GDP-1.8-4.3-2.8-3.8-3.6-3.3
FDI inflow, EUR m610754874...
Gross external debt in % of GDP57.251.448.9...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 1/2024

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2024
50 pages including 5 Tables and 18 Figures

Details

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Executive summary

Branimir Jovanović
in: Beneath the Veneer of Calm
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2023, October 2023 , pp. I-VI
Details


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