The economic slump of March-May 2020 was short-lived and was followed by an upswing in external and household demand. Nevertheless, the second wave of infections is likely to result in restrained economic activity in the coming months. A substantial government rescue package helped to cushion the downturn, and the medium-term budget strategy envisages further substantial public support for economic growth. We project a recession of 4.8% of GDP in 2020, followed by a revival of 3.9% in 2021 and a smaller upswing of 3% in 2022.

map Estonia
Main Economic Indicators201720182019202020212022
Population, 1000 persons131713221327...
GDP, real change in %
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)232802468026110...
Gross industrial production, real change in %4.14.7-0.1...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average5.
Average gross monthly wages, EUR122113101407...
Consumer prices, % p.a.
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-0.7-0.50.1...
Public debt in % of GDP9.18.28.4...
Current account in % of GDP2.
FDI inflow, EUR mn155210222627...
Gross external debt in % of GDP83.477.473.8...

Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.


ESTONIA: Government uses fiscal space to support a bounce-back

Sebastian Leitner
in: No Quick Recovery in Sight, with Coronavirus Risks Looming Large
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2020, November 2020 , pp. 60-63
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Monthly Report No. 5/2020

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 5, May 2020
96 pages including 27 Tables and 39 Figures