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The pace of economic recovery in Q1 2021 exceeded all expectations, reaching 5.4% year on year and 4.8% quarter on quarter. It was boosted by the service sector (IT, financial and insurance services), increased private consumption and investment (due to pension reform and accumulated savings), a construction boom and an upswing in retail trade. With inflation back on track at 3.6% year on year in May and foreign trade again at pre-crisis levels, the economic outlook for the rest of the year is better than previously projected.

We are upgrading our growth forecast to 4.2% in 2021, followed by 4.5% in 2022 and 4.3% in 2023, driven by private consumption and exports of goods and services. The unemployment rate will continue to decline in coming years, reaching the pre-crisis level by 2023. A steady growth in the prices of durable goods and services, coupled with a gradual upswing in food prices, will bring inflation to 2.3% in 2021. However, elimination of the fiscal deficit is not anticipated, even by 2025, even though maintaining a low budget deficit and minimising government borrowing are primary objectives for the coming years.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201820192020202120222023
Population, 1000 persons132213271329...
GDP, real change in %4.14.1-3.04.24.54.3
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)245702576025380...
Gross industrial production, real change in %4.76.7-6.1...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average5.44.46.86.55.54.7
Average gross monthly wages, EUR131014071448...
Consumer prices, % p.a.3.42.3-0.62.32.72.2
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-0.60.1-5.0-6.0-4.0-2.5
Public debt in % of GDP8.28.618.5...
Current account in % of GDP0.92.0-0.6-0.30.10.4
FDI inflow, EUR m102226272813...
Gross external debt in % of GDP78.276.391.1...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2021

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanovic, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2021
42 pages including 4 Tables and 15 Figures

Details

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ESTONIA: The second wave has put the brakes on economic recovery

Maryna Tverdostup
in: Darkest before the dawn?
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2021, April 2021 , pp. 68-72
Details and Buy


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