map Estonia
Q1 2023 saw an economic decline of 0.6% quarter on quarter – smaller than expected, given the major dip in consumption. The downturn in economic activity was spread across the economic sectors, and foreign trade volumes fell considerably. As we can see no sign of any notable economic revival in 2023, we have reduced our GDP forecast to a modest 0.2% growth in 2023. Growth (such as it is) will be driven by a gradual recovery in industrial production, a resilient labour market and domestic consumption. Although inflation has been slowing due to steadily declining energy prices, it still stood at well above 10% in April. Core inflation remains elevated, with domestic factors playing an increased role. This continues to affect the country’s competitiveness on foreign markets – something that was already being undermined by the country having the highest inflation in the EU in 2022. Foreign trade deteriorated further in Q1 2023, with exports down by 10.5% and imports 17% lower. Since taming inflation and securing longer-term competitiveness remain the government’s priorities, it is likely that a slowdown in public-sector wage growth and an increase in taxes are on their way.
Main Economic Indicators202020212022202320242025
Population, 1000 persons133013311349...
GDP, real change in %-1.07.2-
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)258202859030530...
Gross industrial production, real change in %-3.013.3-2.0...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average6.
Average gross monthly wages, EUR144815481645...
Consumer prices, % p.a.-0.64.519.410.13.01.8
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-5.5-2.5-0.9-3.5-3.2-2.9
Public debt in % of GDP18.617.818.5...
Current account in % of GDP-1.0-1.8-
FDI inflow, EUR m312261691583...
Gross external debt in % of GDP88.785.184.7...

Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.


Monthly Report No. 7-8/2023

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Nina Vujanović, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2023
51 pages including 3 Tables, 24 Figures and 1 Box



Executive summary

Olga Pindyuk
in: Sailing Through Rough Waters
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2023, April 2023 , pp. I-VI