Estonia

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Estonia’s economy is emerging from a prolonged downturn. Real GDP growth is projected to firm to 2.4% in 2026, broadly hold at 2.8% in 2027, and then ease to 2.4% in 2028 once the fiscal impulse unwinds. Activity is likely to remain at below its pre-war trajectory throughout, restrained by cautious business sentiment and unresolved competitiveness pressures.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202320242025202620272028
Population, 1000 persons137013721355...
GDP, real change in %-2.7-0.10.62.42.82.4
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)306103156033080...
Gross industrial production, real change in %-9.7-2.51.6...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average6.47.67.56.86.66.4
Average gross monthly wages, EUR183219812092...
Consumer prices, % p.a.9.13.74.83.82.82.3
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-2.7-1.2-2.0-4.4-4.0-3.5
Public debt in % of GDP20.223.524.1...
Current account in % of GDP-1.2-1.2-0.2-1.4-0.90.1
FDI inflow, EUR m4823-3205-822...
Gross external debt in % of GDP88.897.899.8...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2026

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Ioannis Gutzianas, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Biljana Jovanovikj, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Isilda Mara, Michał Możdżeń, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Marina Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2026
52 pages including 5 Tables

Details

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Executive summary

Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
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