map Estonia
By the end of 2022, the country’s economic resilience – which had been based on strong consumption – had largely faded, while the negative effects of inflation had come to the fore. By the onset of winter, purchasing power had evaporated, private savings had shrunk, corporate profits were falling and job vacancies were declining. In terms of energy prices, however, the worst seems to have passed in autumn and, while still high, the inflation rate is on a downward path. We expect only slight economic growth of 0.9% in 2023 (largely predicated on increased government support for families and businesses), followed by a steeper recovery of 3.1% and 4.2% in 2024 and 2025, respectively. Inflation will decelerate to 8.8% in 2023, thanks largely to tighter monetary policy and higher borrowing costs. Increased government spending to support those worst affected by the cost-of-living crisis, and a personal income tax reform that will raise the tax threshold, will leave a shortfall of around 4.2% of GDP in the state budget in 2023; the budget deficit will persist in the years to come.
Main Economic Indicators202020212022202320242025
Population, 1000 persons133013311345...
GDP, real change in %-0.68.0-
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)258502884030620...
Gross industrial production, real change in %-3.07.2-1.8...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average6.
Average gross monthly wages, EUR144815481685...
Consumer prices, % p.a.-0.64.519.
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-5.5-2.4-2.0-4.2-3.9-3.1
Public debt in % of GDP18.517.619.5...
Current account in % of GDP-1.0-1.8-
FDI inflow, EUR m312261691517...
Gross external debt in % of GDP88.884.784.4...

Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.


Monthly Report No. 1/2023

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Nina Vujanović, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2023
44 pages including 4 Tables and 16 Figures



Executive summary

Branimir Jovanović
in: Bracing for the Winter
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2022, October 2022 , pp. I-VIII