Estonia

The rebound in economic activity in the second half of 2020 suggested that the Estonian economy would bounce back once the virus was contained and restrictions were removed. However, an upswing of infections at the beginning of 2021 has turned out much worse than expected and is jeopardising economic recovery. We have downgraded our GDP growth forecast to 1.2% in 2021. The economy is expected to return to its pre-crisis path only in 2022, with a 3.8% growth rate, followed by 4.3% in 2023.

map Estonia
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201820192020202120222023
Population, 1000 persons132213271327...
GDP, real change in %4.45.0-2.91.23.84.3
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)246802611025890...
Gross industrial production, real change in %4.76.7-6.1...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average5.44.46.87.57.06.5
Average gross monthly wages, EUR131014071448...
Consumer prices, % p.a.3.42.3-0.61.31.72.0
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-0.60.1-4.9...
Public debt in % of GDP8.28.418.2...
Current account in % of GDP0.92.0-1.0-1.00.21.2
FDI inflow, EUR m102226272836...
Gross external debt in % of GDP77.473.888.7...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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ESTONIA: The second wave has put the brakes on economic recovery

Maryna Tverdostup
in: Darkest before the dawn?
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2021, April 2021 , pp. 68-72
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Monthly Report No. 5/2020

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 5, May 2020
96 pages including 27 Tables and 39 Figures

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