Estonia

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The economy performed at well below expectations last year, contracting by an estimated 2.8%. The reasons for this included a decline in manufacturing output, a weakening of private consumption, no sign of recovery in external demand and a deterioration in competitiveness on foreign markets. The same headwinds, coupled with tax hikes, sluggish investment activity and persistent uncertainty, will result in GDP stagnating in 2024. The economy will start to grow again in the following years – by 2.6% in 2025 and 3.3% in 2026 – largely due to price stabilisation, a revival in manufacturing and investment activity, a recovery in private consumption and a general economic upswing in the EU. The labour market has been losing resilience since the second half of 2023, and unemployment is expected to peak at 8.8% in 2024, to be followed by a gradual decline to 7.4% in 2026, as the overall economic outlook improves. The budget deficit will remain at above 3% of GDP across the forecast horizon, since tax revenue declines during a recession, while government spending on social benefits, pensions, public-sector wages and security is set to rise.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202120222023202420252026
Population, 1000 persons13311349....
GDP, real change in %7.2-0.5-2.8-0.22.63.3
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)2818030140....
Gross industrial production, real change in %13.3-2.0-10.9...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average6.25.66.88.88.07.4
Average gross monthly wages, EUR15481645....
Consumer prices, % p.a.4.519.49.13.52.32.2
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-2.5-1.0-3.1-3.5-3.8-3.2
Public debt in % of GDP17.818.5....
Current account in % of GDP-2.6-3.2-2.3-4.2-4.0-3.4
FDI inflow, EUR m63221696....
Gross external debt in % of GDP85.184.7....


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 1/2024

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2024
50 pages including 5 Tables and 18 Figures

Details

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Executive summary

Branimir Jovanović
in: Beneath the Veneer of Calm
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2023, October 2023 , pp. I-VI
Details


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