Estonia

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Estonia’s recent economic recovery has been less broad based than was suggested by the spring data. Household spending has been supported by the income tax cut at the beginning of the year and the lowest inflation in the euro area, but the budget deficit has risen sharply; meanwhile companies have cut investment and the labour force is shrinking. Following the 1.3% of 2025, the economy is expected to expand by 2.3% in 2026 and by around 2.5% a year in 2027-2028. High energy prices, rising interest rates and the upcoming March 2027 general election frame the main forecast risks.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202320242025202620272028
Population, 1000 persons137013721365...
GDP, real change in %-2.90.11.32.32.52.4
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)304603158033280...
Gross industrial production, real change in %-9.7-2.51.6...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average6.47.67.56.66.46.3
Average gross monthly wages, EUR183219812092...
Consumer prices, % p.a.9.13.74.82.92.42.5
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-2.7-1.6-2.0-4.5-4.4-4.1
Public debt in % of GDP20.323.524.0...
Current account in % of GDP-1.5-1.70.3-1.02.8-0.6
FDI inflow, EUR m4819-3187-988...
Gross external debt in % of GDP89.598.199.2...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2026

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Ioannis Gutzianas, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Biljana Jovanovikj, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Isilda Mara, Michał Możdżeń, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Marina Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2026
52 pages including 5 Tables

Details

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Executive summary

Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII Details

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