Croatia
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 3857 | 3856 | 3850 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 7.3 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.7 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 25880 | 28970 | 30490 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 1.2 | -0.3 | -1.9 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 6.8 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.8 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 1380 | 1584 | 1821 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 10.7 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 2.8 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | 0.1 | -0.8 | -2.4 | -2.2 | -2.0 | -1.9 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 68.5 | 61.8 | 57.6 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -3.2 | 0.7 | -1.2 | -0.5 | -0.4 | 0.2 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 3727 | 3088 | 4302 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 73.8 | 78.0 | 65.6 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2025
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Maciej Grodzicki, Ioannis Gutzianas, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2025
38 pages including 5 Tables and 3 Figures
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
The economy is off to a plodding start in 2025, with GDP growth slowing to 2.9% year on year in Q1, down from 3.9% in Q4 2024. For 2025 as a whole, growth is projected to slow to 2.9%, on the back of weaker growth in domestic demand and real incomes, and sluggish demand in the euro area. Besides, wage growth has not fully offset the real income losses from previous inflation shocks. At the same time, tourism and the inflows of EU funds are expected to remain strong. According to EU estimates, Croatia’s GDP could increase by up to 8% overall by 2030, thanks to its cohesion policy funds. The tourism industry has also continued to grow: commercial accommodation providers recorded 5.6 million overnight stays during January-April 2025 – a 4.7% increase over the same period last year. After 4% in 2024, inflation climbed to 4.7% in Q1 2025, but is expected to decline gradually to 3.5% in 2025 as a whole, and to below the 3% mark in 2026, as pressure eases on food and transportation prices and domestic demand cools. Nevertheless, it will remain at above the euro area target over the forecast horizon. The US import tariffs placed on the EU’s automobile industry are expected to have an indirect effect on Croatia’s exports and present a downside risk to growth in 2025. The significant exodus of the qualified workforce to other EU countries means that Croatia is also experiencing a severe labour shortage, which is especially noticeable in the country’s crucial tourist and construction industries.