Czechia
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 10698 | 10506 | 10525 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | -5.5 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 2.4 | 2.7 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 28050 | 29710 | . | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -7.2 | 6.9 | 1.7 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.6 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 1367 | 1478 | 1643 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 3.3 | 3.3 | 14.8 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -5.8 | -5.1 | -3.9 | -4.0 | -2.5 | -1.9 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 37.7 | 42.0 | 45.0 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 2.0 | -0.9 | -5.6 | -3.8 | -2.6 | -0.9 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 7367 | 6491 | 9375 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 76.3 | 76.3 | 66.9 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
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Monthly Report No. 2/2023
Tereza De Castro, Branimir Jovanović, Michael Landesmann, Sebastian Leitner, Cristina Procházková Ilinitchi, Ondřej Sankot and Jana Vlčková
wiiw Monthly Report No. 2, February 2023
53 pages including 2 Tables and 28 Figures
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Executive summary
Branimir Jovanović
in: Bracing for the Winter
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2022, October 2022 , pp. I-VIII
Details
At the start of 2023, the Czech economy continues to face strong pressure from high borrowing costs and double-digit inflation, though a slowdown in price growth appears to be around the corner. The deterioration in real wages is taking its toll on household consumption; this, combined with gross fixed capital formation, will act as the main drag on growth in 2023. By contrast, industry is coping better than expected with the headwinds: the automotive sector is particularly strong and is contributing positively to Czechia’s exports. Still, many of the challenges from 2022 will carry over into the first half of this year; consequently, the Czech economy is expected to report close to no growth (0.4%) in 2023, followed by a modest rebound (2.4%) in 2024. In the wake of pressure from firms struggling with soaring energy prices, the government has extended its support package to cover large enterprises (alongside SMEs and households); this will limit the scope for fiscal consolidation. Inflation will return to the Czech National Bank’s target range only in 2024. The policy rate will most likely remain stable at 7% over the coming months, before gradually decreasing towards the end of the year.