North Macedonia

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Headline growth has been surprisingly strong, but it rests on shaky foundations and has not translated into any meaningful improvement in living standards. It has been driven by a boom in residential construction, while foreign direct investment remains weak and public investment is mostly completing old projects. Inflation has been below the level expected, due to lower global oil prices over the summer; but it is set to flare up again, further slowing real wage growth and consumption. Fiscal policy remains loose, without any major new projects, yet breaching the fiscal rules once again.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202320242025202620272028
Population, 1000 persons182818241821...
GDP, real change in %2.63.03.53.33.33.3
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)158301693017840...
Gross industrial production, real change in %0.6-3.41.6...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average13.112.411.511.010.510.0
Average gross monthly wages, EUR89210081103...
Consumer prices, % p.a.9.04.24.34.03.53.0
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-4.3-4.5-4.1-4.5-4.0-4.0
Public debt in % of GDP49.452.951.6...
Current account in % of GDP-0.1-2.6-4.7-2.8-2.7-2.3
FDI inflow, EUR m593966590...
Gross external debt in % of GDP77.477.971.2...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2026

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Ioannis Gutzianas, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Biljana Jovanovikj, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Isilda Mara, Michał Możdżeń, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Marina Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2026
52 pages including 5 Tables

Details

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Executive summary

Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
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