Ukraine
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 41378 | 35000 | 36700 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 3.4 | -28.8 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 4.5 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 9470 | 8580 | 8760 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 1.9 | -36.7 | 6.0 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 9.9 | 25.0 | 20.0 | 15.0 | 10.0 | 9.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 434 | 437 | 441 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 9.4 | 20.2 | 12.9 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 6.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -3.5 | -16.1 | -20.4 | -18.0 | -15.0 | -12.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 49.0 | 77.8 | 84.4 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -1.9 | 4.9 | -5.4 | -8.0 | -10.0 | -10.0 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 6717 | 210 | 4442 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 67.8 | 79.7 | 88.0 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2024
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2024
45 pages including 5 Tables and 12 Figures
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
The economy showed strong growth in Q1 2024 of about 4.5% year on year (according to estimates by the Ministry of Economy), as the functioning Black Sea Corridor supported growth in metallurgy, the extraction industries and transport. Consumer inflation in April 2024 slowed more rapidly than expected – mainly on the back of falling raw food prices (the result of temporary excess supply). Also, the approval by the US of over USD 60bn in military aid for Ukraine in April provided much-needed funding for military expenditure and, together with loans from the EU under its Ukraine Facility, allowed macro-financial stability to be further maintained. Encouraged by the recent trends in inflation and external funding, in April the central bank cut its policy rate by 1 percentage point (pp) – to 13.5%. However, Russia’s recent missile and drone attacks on the energy infrastructure are putting a brake on the economic recovery. About half of the country’s power-generation capacity has been destroyed, which has forced energy providers to introduce nationwide rolling power outages that are expected to continue for at least another year. In light of these developments, we have downgraded our GDP forecast for 2024 by 0.5 pp – to 2.7%. In 2025-2026, annual GDP growth will accelerate to about 4%, assuming the country receives sufficient external funding and military aid. The results of the June G7 summit – at which the leaders agreed to provide Ukraine with USD 50bn in new financing, funded by interest earned on frozen Russian sovereign assets – are reassuring. However, the downside risks to the forecast remain high, as the government’s need for external funding for the coming years is not yet fully covered, and Ukraine’s military continues to experience a shortage of weapons, ammunition and anti-missile defence systems – all critical to defending the country from further destruction by Russia.