Ukraine
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 35000 | 36700 | 37000 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | -28.8 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 5.0 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 10210 | 11170 | 11770 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -36.7 | 6.8 | 4.6 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 25.0 | 20.0 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 10.0 | 9.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 437 | 441 | 494 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 20.2 | 12.9 | 6.5 | 12.5 | 8.0 | 7.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -16.1 | -20.1 | -17.7 | -18.0 | -16.0 | -11.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 77.8 | 83.3 | 91.2 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | 4.9 | -5.3 | -8.4 | -11.0 | -11.0 | -9.0 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 210 | 4227 | 3712 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 79.7 | 86.8 | 98.1 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2025
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Maciej Grodzicki, Ioannis Gutzianas, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2025
38 pages including 5 Tables and 3 Figures
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
Ukraine’s economic performance is continuing to decelerate – preliminary estimates put real GDP growth in Q1 2025 at about 1% year on year, a marked slowdown from the already rather modest figure of 2.9% in 2024. Robust consumer demand (supported by the strong growth of real wages) and a revival in manufacturing (especially in metallurgy and the production of military equipment) cannot offset the adverse effects of Russian military aggression. Ukraine’s military is still experiencing a shortage of air-defence missiles, which is weakening its ability to withstand Russian drones and missile attacks that continue to destroy the country’s infrastructure. A tight labour market remains one of the biggest bottlenecks for the economy; and the longer the war lasts, the greater the labour shortage will be. Consumer price inflation accelerated further in April and May to exceed 15% year on year; this has forced the National Bank of Ukraine to maintain the policy rate at 15.5%. We have revised our forecast for GDP growth in 2025 downwards, in the wake of a harvest that is projected to be poorer than expected (following adverse weather) and the EU’s decision, under pressure from its farmers, to restore pre-war restrictions on Ukrainian agrifood exports. Assuming a significant de-escalation of the war with Russia next year, economic growth in 2026-2027 should pick up. However, the downside risks to the forecast have increased amid growing geopolitical uncertainty. Kyiv has so far managed to appease US President Donald Trump and avoid the worst-case outcome of a permanent block on American intelligence sharing and a halt to weapon deliveries, but tensions with the US could escalate again and put Ukraine’s military capabilities at risk.