Ukraine
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 36700 | 37000 | 37000 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 3.4 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 11010 | 11330 | 11860 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 6.8 | 4.7 | -1.7 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 20.0 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 11.0 | 9.0 | 7.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 441 | 494 | 551 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 12.9 | 6.5 | 12.7 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 6.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -20.1 | -17.6 | -18.6 | -18.0 | -15.0 | -14.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 83.3 | 91.1 | 101.2 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -5.9 | -8.9 | -16.0 | -17.4 | -17.9 | -18.8 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 4136 | 3674 | 2116 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 86.8 | 98.1 | 106.0 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
publication_icon
Monthly Report No. 03/2026
Vasily Astrov, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Ioannis Gutzianas, Nadya Heger, Mario Holzner and Olga Pindyuk
wiiw Monthly Report No. 03, March 2026
31 pages including 1 Table and 5 Figures
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
Massive missile attacks by Russia have significantly impacted Ukraine’s economic activity, as the destruction of energy-sector infrastructure has led to electricity shortages and a record increase in energy imports. The war in Iran is also having an adverse impact on the country’s economy, which is heavily reliant on imports of fuel and fertilisers. In light of these factors, we have downgraded our growth forecast for 2026-2027, and the downside external risks to the forecast have become larger.