Estonia
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 1349 | 1370 | 1360 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 0.1 | -3.0 | -0.3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.5 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 30350 | 30460 | 31380 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 1.8 | -9.7 | -4.0 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 5.6 | 6.4 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 6.4 | 5.8 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 1645 | 1832 | 1981 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 19.4 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 3.2 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -1.1 | -3.1 | -1.5 | -3.6 | -3.0 | -2.5 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 19.1 | 20.2 | 23.6 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -3.9 | -1.7 | -1.1 | -0.9 | -0.5 | 0.3 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 1921 | 4962 | -3262 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 84.4 | 89.2 | 98.7 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2025
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Maciej Grodzicki, Ioannis Gutzianas, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2025
38 pages including 5 Tables and 3 Figures
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
Estonia’s economy has entered a phase of gradual recovery. Early 2025 has brought a modest rebound, supported by stabilising private consumption, improved business sentiment and a gradual revival in investment, particularly in infrastructure and the defence sector. Despite the challenges arising from trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainty and rising import costs, Estonia’s economy is set to grow modestly – by 1.5% this year, 2% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027. The recovery is supported by lower interest rates, cheaper energy and improved productivity, as underutilised resources are put to work. Foreign demand is gradually picking up, though the looming trade restrictions could possibly retard the revival. The manufacturing industry, though still weighed down by subdued external demand, is beginning to benefit from a slow but steady revival in the key European export markets. Inflation is projected to remain at around 5.5% in 2025, due to increases in VAT and excise duties, but is expected to ease gradually in the coming years, as these tax effects fade and supply-side pressures diminish. The labour market has shown resilience, with unemployment projected to hover at around 7.2% this year; it is likely to decline gradually thereafter, as production expands and firms regain confidence in hiring. Amid rising defence spending and significant public investment, including EU-funded projects, public debt will remain at below 25% of GDP, with the government strongly committed to restraining further debt accumulation and to maintaining fiscal stability.