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A contraction in external demand and investment resulted in GDP stagnating in Q1 2024. Looking ahead over the year as a whole, the economy will recover, though by just 1.6%. The main growth driver will be planned investment, financed from the NextGenerationEU programme; meanwhile exports will revive only gradually, since EU – and particularly German – industrial activity will remain subdued. Consumer price inflation is about to decline further and will be 1.5% on average this year, while a gradual rise is to be expected in the coming years. Real incomes are increasing quite swiftly again; thus, we will see private household demand revive somewhat more rapidly in the second half of 2024. Given the fairly low growth, the public deficit will amount to 3% of GDP this year. The labour market remained quite tight last year; the unemployment rate is expected to increase slightly to 7% in 2024 and thereafter to decline again. In the coming years, growth is projected to pick up to 2.5% in 2025 and 2.7% in 2026.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202120222023202420252026
Population, 1000 persons188418791880...
GDP, real change in %6.73.0-0.31.62.52.7
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)232102542026640...
Gross industrial production, real change in %6.60.9-4.5...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average7.66.96.57.06.76.4
Average gross monthly wages, EUR127713731537...
Consumer prices, % p.a.3.217.29.11.42.22.7
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-7.2-4.6-2.2-2.8-2.3-2.0
Public debt in % of GDP44.441.843.6...
Current account in % of GDP-3.9-4.8-4.0-3.1-4.6-5.7
FDI inflow, EUR m316611201386...
Gross external debt in % of GDP110.5102.398.5...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2024

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2024
45 pages including 5 Tables and 12 Figures

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Executive summary

Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
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