Latvia

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The Russian war in Ukraine will substantially drag down growth in the small, open economy of Latvia. Almost all sectors will be affected by a fall-off in demand and escalating prices. The influx of Ukrainian refugees (accounting for 0.5% of the Latvian population) may even induce additional consumption in the short run. In these uncertain times, enterprises will largely refrain from investment, preferring to deplete their stocks and wait for the price rises to stabilise. In 2022, we expect GDP growth to fall to 1.4%, but then to recover somewhat, to 2.2% in 2023. Our main scenario assumes no substantial intensification of economic sanctions. Later, we would expect a stabilisation of GDP growth in Latvia at 2.3% in 2024.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201920202021202220232024
Population, 1000 persons191419001883...
GDP, real change in %2.5-3.84.51.42.22.3
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)217002099023030...
Gross industrial production, real change in %0.9-1.56.7...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average6.38.17.67.55.86.0
Average gross monthly wages, EUR107611431277...
Consumer prices, % p.a.2.70.13.210.06.53.5
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-0.6-4.5-7.4-5.5-3.5-2.0
Public debt in % of GDP36.743.344.8...
Current account in % of GDP-0.72.9-2.9-3.8-1.9-2.0
FDI inflow, EUR m9758204581...
Gross external debt in % of GDP116.8124.8112.0...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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LATVIA: Government ready to bear the high cost of cutting economic ties with Russia

Sebastian Leitner
in: Overshadowed by War and Sanctions
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2022, April 2022 , pp. 78-81
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Monthly Report No. 1/2022

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Marcus How, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Nina Vujanović, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2022
58 pages including 4 Tables and 21 Figures

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