Kosovo
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 1786 | 1768 | 1775 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 10.7 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 3.9 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 8690 | 9840 | 10310 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 0.3 | 0.2 | 2.5 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 20.7 | 12.5 | 12.4 | 12.3 | 12.0 | 11.5 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 484 | 521 | 610 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 3.4 | 11.6 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 2.2 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.3 | -1.0 | -1.0 | -1.5 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 21.1 | 19.7 | 17.2 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -8.7 | -10.3 | -7.6 | -8.6 | -8.7 | -8.5 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 421 | 732 | 844 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 37.1 | 38.6 | 39.9 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
publication_icon
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2024
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2024
45 pages including 5 Tables and 12 Figures
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
In 2024, economic growth will remain consumption led, with investment also contributing positively. A lower rate of increase in consumer prices, rising remittances and higher public-sector wages will sustain consumption. Consumer price inflation declined to 2.2% in the first four months of 2024, but headline inflation – and especially energy price inflation – was still elevated, standing at three times the rate for the same period last year. Given the heavy dependence of the Kosovo economy on imports, we expect inflation to hover at around 2.9% for the year. Remittances will continue to play a vital role for households, bolstering consumption. Public finances have improved steadily, allowing the government to further support reforms in public-sector wages and to increase public investment. Military spending has increased substantially, but this will not affect improvements in the public finances. Despite external turbulence, the economy and foreign direct investment have demonstrated resilience. The banking sector remains supportive, with demand for credit rising and non-performing loans remaining low. In Q1 2024, goods exports lost momentum, while services exports picked up. However, the strong showing by service exports will not prevent the current account from deteriorating, on account of the continued surge in imports. Anticipating strong domestic demand, we expect a growth rate of 3.6% in 2024. Over the medium term, growth momentum is projected to hover at around 3.9%.