Moldova

map Moldova
Economic growth was still positive in Q1 2022, supported by private and public consumption and driven also by the large number of temporary resident refugees from Ukraine. Severe trade disruptions and high inflation, coupled with the expected worsening of agricultural performance, will drive the economy into recession later this year. Sharp rises in electricity, oil and gas tariffs and skyrocketing food prices have prompted us to increase our inflation forecast from 20% to 25%. The Central bank has tried to alleviate inflationary pressure by raising the policy rate, which provides little help against imported inflation. The fiscal deficit is expected to expand to 6.5% from 2% to allow paying for energy subsidies and refugee-related expenditures. Generous foreign assistance, pledged mainly by multinational agencies, will provide the financing. Expanding government consumption and subsidies to private consumption will result in a milder recession than forecast earlier. Risks related to the energy supply have been factored in. Moldova produces no oil or gas and has no oil refineries. Low transport capacity is the main problem facing fuel imports and also Ukrainian exports through Moldova. The newly granted candidate status of EU membership has strengthened the position of the ruling coalition even if the country has a long and bumpy road of reforms ahead. Institutional adjustment to EU norms will widen the systemic gap between Moldova and the separatist region of Transnistria, which may lead to tensions. A further geopolitical risk is the Odesa region, which is located just across Moldova’s border with Ukraine, becoming a target for Russia’s invasion.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201920202021202220232024
Population, 1000 persons266526202615...
GDP, real change in %3.6-8.313.9-1.03.04.0
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)9050841010270...
Gross industrial production, real change in %2.0-5.512.1...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average5.13.83.23.53.53.5
Average gross monthly wages, EUR368402429...
Consumer prices, % p.a.4.83.85.125.013.08.0
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-1.5-5.3-1.9-6.5-4.5-3.5
Public debt in % of GDP25.734.232.6...
Current account in % of GDP-9.5-7.7-11.6-13.0-10.0-8.0
FDI inflow, EUR m453138207...
Gross external debt in % of GDP63.568.068.9...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

publication_icon

Monthly Report No. 7-8/2022

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Bernhard Moshammer, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Nina Vujanović, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2022
58 pages including 4 Tables and 21 Figures

Details

publication_icon

Executive summary

Vasily Astrov
in: Overshadowed by War and Sanctions
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2022, April 2022 , pp. I-VII
Details


top