Kazakhstan

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Robust growth in manufacturing, trade and other sectors has offset the impact of repeated oil export disruptions, and the economy is expected to expand by 4.5% this year. Private consumption has gained momentum with the easing of inflation, although further disinflation will be slower than previously expected because of the global energy price shock. Strong investment in non-resource sectors, as well as additional public investment financed through National Oil Fund transfers, should provide further impetus to growth in the coming years. Higher global oil prices represent an upside risk to growth, while a risk of oil export disruptions remains a key downside risk.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202320242025202620272028
Population, 1000 persons199002015920392...
GDP, real change in %5.15.06.54.54.75.0
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)255502671028870...
Gross industrial production, real change in %4.43.27.7...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average4.74.74.64.54.54.4
Average gross monthly wages, EUR738798751...
Consumer prices, % p.a.14.58.711.410.08.56.0
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-2.4-2.6-2.8-2.5-2.0-1.8
Public debt in % of GDP24.024.724.3...
Current account in % of GDP-3.2-2.3-4.31.0-1.4-2.9
FDI inflow, EUR m52941872-843...
Gross external debt in % of GDP60.858.657.5...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2026

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Ioannis Gutzianas, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Biljana Jovanovikj, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Isilda Mara, Michał Możdżeń, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Marina Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2026
52 pages including 5 Tables

Details

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Executive summary

Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
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