Kazakhstan

map Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan’s real GDP is expected to grow by 6% in 2025, marking the strongest expansion in over a decade. This robust economic performance is driven by credit-led private consumption, alongside infrastructure and manufacturing investment. However, growth is projected to slow slightly in the coming years, due to the expected cooling of consumer demand amid stubborn inflation, tight monetary policy and fiscal consolidation measures. A fall in global oil prices and completion of the Tengiz oil field expansion will likely drag down oil-sector investment. Major risks to the forecast stem from potential disruptions to oil transportation, a deeper plunge in global oil prices, or weakening demand from the country’s main trading partners.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202220232024202520262027
Population, 1000 persons196351990020159...
GDP, real change in %3.25.15.06.04.54.5
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)229602553026900...
Gross industrial production, real change in %1.24.43.2...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average4.94.74.74.64.54.5
Average gross monthly wages, EUR640738798...
Consumer prices, % p.a.15.014.58.711.79.57.5
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-2.1-2.4-2.6-2.5-2.3-2.0
Public debt in % of GDP25.724.024.7...
Current account in % of GDP2.9-3.6-2.7-3.9-3.9-3.5
FDI inflow, EUR m483352931829...
Gross external debt in % of GDP70.660.858.6...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2025

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Maciej Grodzicki, Ioannis Gutzianas, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2025
38 pages including 5 Tables and 3 Figures

Details

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Executive summary

Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details


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