Kazakhstan

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Credit-led private consumption is expected to be the main growth driver in 2024. Impressive investment growth in manufacturing – as well as in the transport and logistics infrastructure related to the Middle Corridor – has also been an important factor. However, the declines in oil production in the wake of OPEC+ production restrictions and in investment in the oil sector have imposed something of a drag on overall economic growth. Against this background, we have revised our GDP forecast for 2024 downwards, to 4%. The outlook for the coming years is positive: the economy is likely to grow by over 4.5%, with a robust performance from manufacturing and services, and a recovery in oil production driven by expansion of the Tengiz oil field.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202120222023202420252026
Population, 1000 persons190011963519900...
GDP, real change in %4.33.25.14.04.74.5
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)215902271024720...
Gross industrial production, real change in %3.61.24.4...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average4.94.94.74.74.64.5
Average gross monthly wages, EUR497640738...
Consumer prices, % p.a.8.015.014.78.86.56.0
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-3.0-2.1-2.4-2.3-2.0-2.0
Public debt in % of GDP27.625.723.9...
Current account in % of GDP-1.42.9-3.4-1.5-1.0-1.0
FDI inflow, EUR m386148295029...
Gross external debt in % of GDP87.270.661.0...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2024

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2024
45 pages including 5 Tables and 12 Figures

Details

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Executive summary

Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
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