North Macedonia

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Inflation began to moderate in Q4 2022, but it still averaged 14.2% for the year as a whole – the highest figure since 1995. Despite its adverse effect on real incomes and consumer confidence, the economy performed better than expected in the second half of the year. This was thanks to strong FDI inflows (6.5% of GDP in Q3): in the first nine months of the year, they averaged 5% of GDP, more than double the previous year’s level. These good results mean that we have revised our GDP growth estimate for 2022 upwards by 0.5 percentage points (pp), to 1.5%. This year will continue in similar vein, with prices keeping on rising (albeit at a slower pace). Inflation will average 10%, causing real incomes to decline for the second year in a row. The central bank will maintain its restrictive monetary policy, keeping the policy interest rate in the vicinity of 5%. As a result, GDP growth will remain anaemic, at around 1%. This is still an improvement of 0.4 pp over the previous forecast, thanks to the better-than-expected results from the second half of 2022 and the relatively mild winter. A potentially positive factor for the economy could be FDI: if it continues to perform as strongly as in 2022, the economy could expand by more than the forecast 1%.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202020212022202320242025
Population, 1000 persons20731837....
GDP, real change in %-4.73.91.51.02.52.5
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)1135013670....
Gross industrial production, real change in %-9.61.4....
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average16.415.714.514.013.513.0
Average gross monthly wages, EUR658696....
Consumer prices, % p.a.1.23.214.210.04.03.0
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-8.2-5.4-3.0-2.0-2.0-2.0
Public debt in % of GDP50.852.0....
Current account in % of GDP-2.9-3.1-7.5-4.5-3.3-3.0
FDI inflow, EUR m28575....
Gross external debt in % of GDP78.781.9....


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 1/2023

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Nina Vujanović, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2023
44 pages including 4 Tables and 16 Figures

Details

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Executive summary

Branimir Jovanović
in: Bracing for the Winter
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2022, October 2022 , pp. I-VIII
Details


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