North Macedonia
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 1834 | 1828 | 1818 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 2.8 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 3.0 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 15070 | 15820 | 16870 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -0.2 | 0.6 | -3.6 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 14.4 | 13.1 | 12.4 | 11.6 | 10.8 | 10.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 773 | 892 | 1008 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 14.0 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 2.8 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -4.3 | -4.4 | -4.6 | -4.0 | -4.0 | -3.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 49.6 | 49.7 | 53.8 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -6.1 | 0.4 | -2.3 | -3.0 | -2.5 | -2.0 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 788 | 593 | 1076 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 81.5 | 77.9 | 79.9 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2025
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Maciej Grodzicki, Ioannis Gutzianas, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2025
38 pages including 5 Tables and 3 Figures
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
The economy performed better than expected in Q1 2025, with GDP growing by 3%. This was largely due to robust construction output on the highway projects initiated by the previous government. The surge in exports ahead of the US tariff increase also contributed – Q1 saw the first uptick in goods and service exports for two years. While household consumption remains somewhat sluggish, the regular uplift to the minimum wage in March is expected to stimulate spending in the coming quarters. Given all this, we are revising our GDP growth forecast for the whole year slightly upwards, to 2.8%. Inflation rounds off the improvements in the economic picture: it decelerated, following the government’s imposition of price controls in March. Because of that, we are revising our inflation forecast for the whole year down to 3.8%. A big recent story in the country has been the strategic partnership agreement signed in May with the UK. This establishes a framework for up to EUR 6bn in infrastructure investment in North Macedonia, though it remains to be seen how the funds will actually be utilised. The most prominent project announced so far – a EUR 2bn railway connecting Greece and Serbia – has been knocking around for some time, but has yet to materialise. Moreover, little has been seen of the highly publicised EUR 1bn loan from Hungary secured last year – something that casts further doubt on the impact of the new British loan.