Macedonia
The Macedonian economy started to recover in 2018 owing to a strong revival of industry and solid export performance. Real GDP is projected to grow by about 3% per year in the medium term, although the chances of political instability suggest significant downside risks. The failed referendum on the country’s ‘name issue’ on 30 September will prolong the political crisis and may destabilise the country again with adverse economic consequences, regardless of the new name’s endorsement by the parliament in October.
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 2072 | 2075 | 2095 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 2.8 | 0.2 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 3.1 | . |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 10800 | 10800 | 11200 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 3.4 | 0.2 | 5.4 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 23.7 | 22.4 | 21.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | . |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 533 | 547 | 572 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | -0.2 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | . |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -2.7 | -2.8 | -2.0 | . | . | . |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 48.7 | 47.7 | 48.0 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -2.9 | -1.0 | -0.8 | -1.0 | -1.0 | . |
| FDI inflow, EUR mn | 495 | 351 | 500 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 74.7 | 73.6 | 76.0 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of March, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
MACEDONIA: Name disputes prolong uncertainty and delay hopes for growth-boosting connectivity
Peter Havlik
in: Strong Growth Amid Increased Negative Risks
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2018, November 2018 , pp. 108-110
Details and Buy
Monthly Report No. 6/2018
Vasily Astrov, Rumen Dobrinsky, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Peter Havlik, Gabor Hunya, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Leon Podkaminer, Sandor Richter and Hermine Vidovic
wiiw Monthly Report No. 6, June 2018
27 pages including 1 Table and 1 Figure