Romania
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 19265 | 19122 | 19047 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | -3.7 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 4.3 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 21830 | 24040 | 27070 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | -9.2 | 7.1 | -1.8 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 5.0 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.2 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 1077 | 1125 | 1249 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 2.3 | 4.1 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -9.2 | -7.1 | -6.2 | -5.0 | -4.5 | -4.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 46.9 | 48.6 | 47.3 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -4.9 | -7.2 | -9.3 | -7.0 | -6.0 | -5.0 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 3056 | 9933 | 11295 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 57.5 | 56.6 | 50.6 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
publication_icon
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2023
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Nina Vujanović, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2023
51 pages including 3 Tables, 24 Figures and 1 Box
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: Sailing Through Rough Waters
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2023, April 2023 , pp. I-VI
Details
Economic growth slowed to 2.3% in Q1 2023. Household consumption and public investment were both buoyant, while the depletion of inventories applied a powerful brake on growth. Industrial production contracted, as power-intensive companies curtailed production in order to save energy. Economic sentiment is generally positive, and growth may pick up in the second half of the year. Domestic demand will be moderately depressed by sluggish real wage growth, but the level of employment will be maintained. The current account deficit narrowed in Q1 2023 and may fall to 7% of GDP for the year as a whole, although the risk of a higher level persists. Inflation has been slowing since December, and dropped below 10% in May to reach 9% on average in 2023. The drivers of inflation are foodstuffs and services, while disinflation is supported by subsiding commodity prices and base effects. The fiscal deficit was very elevated in Q1, at some 6.5% of GDP: this was on account of lower-than-expected revenues. Efforts to achieve fiscal consolidation by saving on public-sector wages have been derailed by the decision to meet most of the demands of the striking teachers. The dynamic expansion of investment – financed mainly by EU programmes and foreign direct investment – will continue in the coming years and support economic growth of 3% in 2023 and 4% in 2024 but not more.