Romania

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Economic growth will reach 0.8% at best in 2025. After some growth in H1, GDP will more or less stagnate in H2 2025 and H1 2026. An improving external balance and better agricultural output may help, but fiscal austerity will suppress growth. The EU has agreed to a new fiscal consolidation path, which will allow for the release of EU funds, so that investment is set to rise. Inflation has accelerated due to tax hikes, while real wages are stagnating. Monetary policy is under pressure, as the currency remains overvalued despite recent depreciations, and a policy rate hike cannot be ruled out.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202220232024202520262027
Population, 1000 persons190491906119052...
GDP, real change in %4.02.40.80.81.22.0
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)264602969031110...
Gross industrial production, real change in %0.5-3.0-1.5...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average5.65.65.46.26.46.0
Average gross monthly wages, EUR124214241636...
Consumer prices, % p.a.12.09.75.87.26.55.0
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-6.4-6.6-9.3-8.3-6.3-5.8
Public debt in % of GDP47.948.954.8...
Current account in % of GDP-9.5-6.6-8.2-8.1-6.9-6.4
FDI inflow, EUR m1145280746586...
Gross external debt in % of GDP54.656.557.9...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2025

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Maciej Grodzicki, Ioannis Gutzianas, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2025
38 pages including 5 Tables and 3 Figures

Details

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Executive summary

Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details


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