wiiw Forecast Reports

POLAND: Technically in recession


Adam Żurawski

in: Beneath the Veneer of Calm
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2023, October 2023 , pp. 108-111

Restrictive monetary policy has pushed the economy into a minor recession that is directly linked to suppressed real wages and the liquidation of excessive inventories. The recent (6 September) cut in the policy interest rate is expected to prevent further deterioration on the real side. In effect, GDP in 2023 is likely to stay flat – and then to resume its moderate expansion in 2024. At the same time, disinflation will progress naturally. Public deficit spending remains high, but the public debt levels are not a serious threat to fiscal stability.


Reference to wiiw databases: wiiw Annual Database, wiiw Monthly Database

Countries covered: Poland