Serbia
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 6834 | 6664 | 6614 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 7.7 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.7 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 14240 | 15560 | 16330 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 6.6 | 1.9 | 2.6 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 11.0 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 8.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 772 | 880 | 1011 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 4.0 | 11.7 | 12.1 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 2.8 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -4.1 | -3.2 | -2.2 | -2.0 | -1.5 | -1.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 57.1 | 55.6 | 52.3 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -4.2 | -6.9 | -2.6 | -2.7 | -2.9 | -2.9 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 3886 | 4432 | 4522 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 68.4 | 69.3 | 65.3 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
publication_icon
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2024
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2024
45 pages including 5 Tables and 12 Figures
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
The overall economic situation in the country is continuing to improve, with GDP growth of 4.7% year on year in Q1. All sectors and GDP components experienced gains, but the primary drivers were robust household consumption (driven by real wage growth) and strong investment, supported by significant FDI inflows and ambitious public investment ahead of the upcoming EXPO 2027. On the downside, inflation remains rather high, at 4.5% in May; that said, it has been on a clear downward trend for over a year and does not appear to be visibly constraining the performance of the economy. As inflation fell on the upper bound of the inflationary target (3%±1.5%), the central bank cut its base interest rate to 6.25% in June, and we expect it to come down to 5.5% by the end of the year. On the political front, the ruling SNS party secured a convincing victory in the June local elections, including in the capital city of Belgrade. This will reinforce its hold on power and ensure that the status quo in the country remains largely unchanged. This includes numerous structural issues related to the rule of law, control of corruption, freedom of the media and lack of an industrial policy: these are likely to prevent the economy from achieving high growth rates over an extended period. Thus, we are revising upwards our GDP forecasts for this year and the next two – but only slightly, to 3.5%, 3.6% and 3.7%.