Serbia
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 6623 | 6586 | 6543 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 3.7 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 3.5 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 18600 | 20590 | 21730 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 2.6 | 3.2 | 0.8 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 9.5 | 8.6 | 8.7 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 7.7 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 1011 | 1156 | 1289 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 12.1 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 3.5 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -2.1 | -2.0 | -2.4 | -2.0 | -3.0 | -2.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 48.4 | 46.9 | 44.7 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -2.4 | -4.5 | -4.9 | -5.2 | -5.0 | -4.7 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 4564 | 5231 | 3477 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 58.7 | 58.6 | 57.6 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
publication_icon
Monthly Report No. 04/2026
Vasily Astrov, Ioannis Gutzianas, Marko Hočevar, Mario Holzner, Branimir Jovanović, Sabina Lange and Bernd Christoph Ströhm
wiiw Monthly Report No. 04, April 2026
33 pages including 6 Figures
publication_icon
Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
The positive signals seen at the start of 2026 are likely to be short-lived. The new war in the Middle East is set to have an impact on the economy through higher energy prices, rising costs for business and weaker foreign direct investment. Thanks to government intervention in domestic fuel prices, the inflationary effect may be less pronounced than in some neighbouring countries, but it will still be felt. We are therefore revising our GDP growth forecast for 2026 down to 2.0% and raising our inflation forecast to 4.5%, with the risk of far worse outcomes if the war in the Middle East drags on.