Serbia

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Economic activity has slowed visibly, driven by a halving of FDI inflows amid the global political uncertainty. The labour market is showing early signs of losing steam, with unemployment edging up a bit. Inflation has flared up again, to run at close to 5%. The domestic political crisis is continuing: while the president has so far managed to buy time and avoid calling a snap election, it is clearer than ever that his time is up. All in all, Serbia seems to be in waiting mode – and, as the saying goes, good things come to those who wait.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202320242025202620272028
Population, 1000 persons66236586....
GDP, real change in %3.73.92.02.83.64.0
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)1860020590....
Gross industrial production, real change in %2.63.20.8...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average9.58.68.58.38.07.7
Average gross monthly wages, EUR10111156....
Consumer prices, % p.a.12.14.84.13.53.23.0
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-2.1-2.0-1.0-2.0-3.0-2.0
Public debt in % of GDP48.446.945.045.046.046.0
Current account in % of GDP-2.4-4.5-4.1-4.0-4.2-4.5
FDI inflow, EUR m45645231....
Gross external debt in % of GDP58.758.659.060.061.062.0


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 1/2026

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Maciej Grodzicki, Ioannis Gutzianas, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Biljana Jovanovikj, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Marina Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2026
58 pages including 6 Tables and 15 Figures

Details

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Executive summary

Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII Details

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