Serbia
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 6834 | 6664 | 6614 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 7.7 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 3.5 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 14240 | 15560 | 16330 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 6.6 | 1.9 | 2.6 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 11.0 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 8.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 772 | 880 | 1011 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 4.1 | 11.9 | 12.1 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 2.8 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -4.1 | -3.2 | -2.2 | -2.0 | -1.5 | -1.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 57.1 | 55.6 | 52.3 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -4.2 | -6.9 | -2.6 | -2.7 | -2.9 | -2.9 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 3886 | 4432 | 4522 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 68.4 | 69.3 | 65.3 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
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Monthly Report No. 1/2024
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2024
50 pages including 5 Tables and 18 Figures
The decline in inflation is boosting real incomes and consumption, while the industrial sector appears to be coming back to life, after two challenging years. Foreign direct investment remains strong, as always, with a notable return of EU investors and the continued strong presence of the Chinese. Public investment is strong, too, lately focused on the upcoming EXPO 2027 in Belgrade. Although the economic conditions in the country have undoubtedly improved, we maintain that numerous structural issues will continue, limiting the potential for higher growth.