WIIW The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies - Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche

Today, the London based economic survey organisation Consensus Economics presented the recipients of its 2021 Forecast Accuracy Award (FAA). The FAA programme awards the achievements of economic forecasters who have most accurately predicted GDP growth and consumer prices in their target economies for the year 2021.

wiiw Economist Olga Pindyuk won the Forecast Accuracy Award for Ukraine. Her monthly forecasts of GDP growth and consumer prices in the country proved to be the most accurate ones among leading forecasts.

To determine the accuracy of a forecast, Consensus Economics examines the monthly forecasts it receives over the entire year from over 700 economists from leading banks and economic research institutes around the world. A “Mean Absolute Error Analysis” is used to compare these forecasts to the actual economic outturns. The forecaster with the lowest average error rate is deemed to having provided the most accurate forecasts in the respective period.

Consensus Economics measures experts’ expectations and establishes consensus values thereof. These “consensus forecasts” are seen as macroeconomic benchmarks by investment and planning managers, as well as government and public sector institutions.

Ukraine: Good luck can get you only so far

Olga Pindyuk’s most recent economic forecast on Ukraine expects the country to return to growth in 2021. The country’s GDP contracted in 2020 by only 4%, largely because of favorable conditions in key export markets and resilient household incomes. In 2021 the economy will return to growth, supported by a rebound in private consumption and a revival in investment. Negative risks to the forecast have been growing, due to the suspension of the IMF loan programme and a slow vaccine roll-out.