Eurasian Economic Integration: Impact Evaluation and Review of Prospects

Client/Funding Institution

Anniversary Fund of the Oesterreichische Nationalbank

Abstract

In the proposed research project we will examine the economic impact of Eurasian integration by focusing on trade creation and trade diversion effects at aggregate and industry levels vis-à-vis the members of the Eurasian Economic Union and non-bloc trading partners using the gravity model of trade and the synthetic counterfactual methods. In the light of the empirical results the project will also revisit the trade potential, challenges and possible routes of economic integration on the wider ‘pan-European-Eurasian economic space’ in the contexts of the EU and the EU Neighbourhood policy, the Eurasian Economic Union, and the New Silk Road initiatives.

Duration

January 2017 - June 2018

wiiw team Leader

Amat Adarov

wiiw Staff

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Manuela Engleitner, Peter Havlik

Keywords: Eurasian integration; regional economic integration; trade creation and trade diversion; customs union; transition economies; gravity model of trade; synthetic counterfactual method; Russia; Belarus; Kazakhstan; Armenia; Kyrgyzstan

Countries covered: Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia

Research Areas: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy


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