WIIW The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies - Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche

Without sufficient military and financial support, Ukraine will not be able to withstand Russia’s military aggression and prevent even more damage to its economy and social fabric. In addition to having a much smaller economy compared to Russia, Ukraine also has a much smaller population – which means it will eventually lose a long war of attrition. If sufficient aid is not provided, Ukraine’s defeat would likely result in far higher social, political and economic costs to Europe in the form of additional refugee flows and greater security risks, including spill-over effects on other neighbouring regions. The EU needs to expand its role as a donor of financial aid. Increasing and front-loading macro-financial and reconstruction assistance – primarily via grants – would enable Ukraine to have an accelerating economic growth trajectory as well as benefit Europe by improving its security situation and boosting its prosperity. Additionally, the assets of the Russian Central Bank that have been frozen by Ukraine’s Western allies, which amount to approximately USD 300bn, should finally be made available to Ukraine.