wiiw Forecast Reports
KAZAKHSTAN: Fiscal policy to the rescue
in: No Quick Recovery in Sight, with Coronavirus Risks Looming Large
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2020, November 2020 , pp. 68-72
A substantial anti-crisis package is mitigating the impact on the economy of two lockdowns and low oil prices. The cut in oil production, in line with the OPEC+ agreement, will hinder any strong revival of exports in coming years. Thanks to a massive fiscal stimulus, real GDP in 2020 is expected to fall by only 3%. Economic growth will resume in 2021, but will be moderate, at 2.5%; in 2022, it will accelerate to 4%. Further lockdowns and the absence of any recovery in oil prices are the main downside risks to the forecast.
Reference to wiiw databases: wiiw Annual Database, wiiw Monthly Database
Countries covered: Kazakhstan