WIIW The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies - Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche

In H1 2023, the Kazakh economy recorded GDP growth that was among the highest of all CESEE countries – 5.1% – driven by investment and private consumption. We expect economic performance to slow in H2 2023, but growth for the full year will still exceed our previous forecast by 0.2 percentage points (pp), reaching 4.7%. Monetary policy loosening will remain cautious in light of the slow disinflation. Booming imports, fuelled by strong demand and declining exports (amid global oil prices that are lower than in 2022) lead to a higher current account deficit forecast for 2023 and 2024. In 2024-2025 we expect economic growth of around 4%.