Monthly Report No. 04/2020
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Andrei V. Belyi, Julia Grübler, Peter Havlik and Grzegorz W. Kolodko
wiiw Monthly Report No. 4, April 2020
42 pages including 1 Table and 26 Figures
- Chart of the month: COVID-19 measures and mobility responses in CESEE countries
by Julia Grübler
- Opinion Corner: Three decades of successful post-socialist transformation, and what next? A programme for Poland
by Grzegorz W. Kolodko
This note argues that economic and social policy in Poland should go beyond a mere maximising of GDP growth and target a wide range of areas, such as consumer protection, investments in human capital, the quality of environment, demographic decline, sustainability of the pension system, and a more socially-oriented taxation system.
- New oil counter-shock: advent of uncertainties
by Andrei Belyi
The current slump in oil prices is a reflection of fundamental uncertainties and, unlike previous such episodes, will do little to boost economic growth. Its effect on oil-producing countries is likely to be asymmetric, with Russia lagging behind OPEC in terms of the competitiveness of its oil industry. The era of low oil prices does not bode well for energy transition, as incentives for this will be greatly diminished and cash-strapped budgets will be in need of excise taxes on oil products.
- Challenges of reintegrating Donbas into Ukraine: what role for foreign assistance?
by Peter Havlik
The conflict in Donbas that has just marked its sixth anniversary is having a significant impact on the whole of Ukraine. In contrast to the unprecedented scale of international assistance provided to Ukraine so far, the engagement of the private sector has been disappointing. A ‘freezing’ of the conflict – mediated by the conflict parties with international support – would be an important step towards curtailing human suffering and mitigating the costs of economic reconstruction. The coronavirus crisis is driving Donbas into the Russian-managed space.
- Monthly and quarterly statistics for Central, East and Southeast Europe
Reference to wiiw databases: wiiw Annual Database, wiiw Monthly Database
Keywords: COVID-19 measures, mobility responses, economic and social policy, human capital, consumer protection, environment, demography, pension system, taxation, oil price, oil production costs, fiscal balance, energy transition, Donbas conflict, economic consequences, foreign assistance, FDI inflows
Countries covered: CESEE, Poland, Russia, Ukraine, US, OPEC, Saudi Arabia
Research Areas: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy, Regional Development, Sectoral studies