Monthly Report No. 2/2019 (publication)

Monthly Report No. 2/2019

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Andrei V. Belyi, Peter Havlik, Artem Kochnev and Ilya B. Voskoboynikov

wiiw Monthly Report No. 2, February 2019
44 pages including 3 Tables and 30 Figures

Chart of the month: The Russian economy and oil prices
by Peter Havlik
Opinion corner: Russia’s new social contract in light of the oil taxation reforms
by Andrei V. Belyi
The fiscal rule and the foreign exchange market in Russia: Stepping in the same river twice?
by Artem Kochnev
Last month the Central Bank of Russia announced its return to the foreign exchange market, according to the fiscal rule implemented in 2017. This note finds that the previous round of the currency interventions by the Bank of Russia was effective in stabilising exchange rate movements by counterbalancing the effects of the oil price changes on the Russian currency.
Global slowdown and the Russian economy
by Ilya B. Voskoboynikov
The article reviews long-run sources of Russian economic growth and demonstrates that the stagnation of the Russian economy in the past decade can be considered in the context of the global productivity slowdown. Conventional industry growth accounting shows that in contrast to the transformational recession before 1998, the recent stagnation of 2008-2014 is primarily the outcome of a slowdown in total factor productivity (TFP) growth and a deterioration in the allocation of labour, rather than bottlenecks in capital inputs.
Monthly and quarterly statistics for Central, East and Southeast Europe

Keywords: oil price, balance of payments, oil taxation, social contract, ‘energy superpower’ concept, fiscal rule, foreign exchange market, growth accounting, total factor productivity, structural change, capital intensity

Countries covered: Russia

Research Areas: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy