Slovakia

map Slovakia
After reaching 1.8% in 2022, real GDP growth slowed in 2023. This was on account of households spending less, limited as they were by declining real wages and the depletion of household savings the previous year. While the rate of inflation fell from 15.4% year on year in February to 6.6% in December, in annual average terms (11%) it was the highest in the euro area. Investment grew favourably, thanks to the arrival of EU funds at the end of the multiannual financial framework (MFF) 2014-2020 funding period and successful payments from the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), the third one coming in December. However, a sharp drawdown of inventories rendered the contribution of gross capital formation to GDP growth negative. The biggest positive contribution to GDP growth in 2023 came from net exports. The important automotive sector had a successful year: it increased car production and maintained export growth, making up for the supply-chain challenges of previous years. For this and the next two years we expect growth to improve gradually, reaching 1.6% (2024), 2.2% (2025) and 2.6% (2026). With inflation tumbling, household consumption will recover and will be the main source of growth. On the other hand, net exports will lose out due to weak growth in the euro area and especially in Slovakia’s main trade partners of Germany and Czechia. The prospects for growth are overshadowed by the ongoing war in Ukraine and by recent events in the Red Sea, which could possibly create fresh disruptions in global trade and lead to supply-chain bottlenecks. Domestically, the budget deficit will remain high, while consolidation will be left for a future agenda.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202120222023202420252026
Population, 1000 persons544754325427...
GDP, real change in %4.81.81.11.62.22.6
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)238602519027290...
Gross industrial production, real change in %10.7-4.51.5...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average6.86.15.86.05.85.6
Average gross monthly wages, EUR121113041430...
Consumer prices, % p.a.2.812.111.03.73.52.5
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-5.2-2.0-6.0-6.0-5.0-4.0
Public debt in % of GDP61.157.857.4...
Current account in % of GDP-4.0-7.3-1.6-2.6-2.4-2.4
FDI inflow, EUR m22993873-303...
Gross external debt in % of GDP134.2103.196.5...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 1/2024

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 1, January 2024
50 pages including 5 Tables and 18 Figures

Details

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Executive summary

Branimir Jovanović
in: Beneath the Veneer of Calm
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2023, October 2023 , pp. I-VI
Details


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