Monthly Report No. 7-8/2024
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2024
45 pages including 5 Tables and 12 Figures
Current issues accessible exclusively for Members. Free access after an embargo period of six months.
Executive summary
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OVERVIEW 2022-2023 AND OUTLOOK 2024-2026
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Summary of key recent macroeconomic data for CESEE, and overview of new wiiw forecasts for 2024-2026 (Excel file)
Summer Forecast Update
Solid but Lopsided Recovery
Economic Forecasts for Eastern Europe for 2024-26
Global assumptions: Getting better, slowly by Richard Grieveson
CESEE Overview: Solid but lopsided recovery by Vasily Astrov
Country updates:
- Albania: Solid economic growth by Isilda Mara
- Belarus: Recovery continues, defying expectations by Rumen Dobrinsky
- Bosnia and Herzegovina: Inflation slowing, but economy remains weak by Selena Duraković
- Bulgaria: Economy lacks direction amidst a messy political situation by Rumen Dobrinsky
- Croatia: Outlook remains positive by Bernd Christoph Ströhm
- Czechia: On track for moderate recovery by Zuzana Zavarská
- Estonia: On the verge of growth by Maryna Tverdostup
- Hungary: Mounting fiscal problems prevail by Sándor Richter
- Kazakhstan: Oil production cuts undermine economic growth by Alexandra Bykova
- Kosovo: Good growth momentum by Isilda Mara
- Latvia: Upswing approaching, but only slowly by Sebastian Leitner
- Lithuania: Household consumption puts an end to stagnation by Sebastian Leitner
- Moldova: Slow recovery despite subdued inflation by Gábor Hunya
- Montenegro: Some question marks, but overall positive by Branimir Jovanović
- North Macedonia: Change, but possibly not in the right direction by Branimir Jovanović
- Poland: Strong currency, low inflation by Adam Żurawski
- Romania: Growing fiscal tension by Gábor Hunya
- Russia: Economy resilient to tight monetary conditions by Vasily Astrov
- Serbia: Economy growing, but challenges remain by Branimir Jovanović
- Slovakia: Mounting political risks by Doris Hanzl-Weiss
- Slovenia: Solid growth expected in year of infrastructure rebuilding and disinflation by Niko Korpar
- Turkey: Despite market confidence, the data paint an uncertain outlook by Meryem Gökten
- Ukraine: Economy undermined by Russia’s missile attack on the energy infrastructure by Olga Pindyuk
Reference to wiiw databases: wiiw Annual Database, wiiw Monthly Database, wiiw FDI Database
Keywords: CESEE, CESEE, economic forecast, Central and Eastern Europe, Western Balkans, EU, euro area, CIS, economic growth, inflation, monetary policy, fiscal policy, GDP, wages, fiscal balance, policy rate, political risk
JEL classification: E20, E21, E23, E24, E31, E5, E62, H60, J20, J30, O47, O52, O57, P24, P27, P52
Countries covered: Albania, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, CESEE, CIS, Croatia, Czechia, Estonia, EU-CEE, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine, Euro Area, Germany, Western Balkans
Research Areas: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy