Slovenia

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Despite high inflation and mounting uncertainties on global markets, Slovenia’s growth in Q1 2022 far exceeded the EU average, mainly as a result of strong private consumption. Growth in 2022 will benefit from the base effect and is forecasted to reach 4.5%. The primary drivers will be strong private demand and investments in fixed capital. The brunt of the negative impact of the Ukrainian crisis is expected to hit Slovenia only in 2023, when GDP growth will slow down to 3%. The inflation rate will reach 8.1% in 2022. The main cause for price hikes is still energy prices, although the prices of food and services have also grown considerably. The rising prices of industrial goods could have a negative effect on external trade and act as a suppressant on growth. The government has responded by capping the price of petrol and has announced measures to control the rising cost of living. The labour market is seeing historically high employment levels, and the unemployment rate is expected to settle at 4.1%. The new centre-left government led by newcomer Robert Golob was appointed at the beginning of June after a strong victory at the polls. The government will face numerous challenges, such as inflation, the need to rein in public spending, and delivering a long-delayed healthcare reform.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators201920202021202220232024
Population, 1000 persons208821022108...
GDP, real change in %3.5-4.38.24.53.02.8
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)277402660029210...
Gross industrial production, real change in %3.1-5.310.3...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average4.55.04.84.14.03.9
Average gross monthly wages, EUR175418561970...
Consumer prices, % p.a.1.7-0.32.08.14.32.3
Fiscal balance in % of GDP0.4-7.8-5.2-3.7-3.4-2.2
Public debt in % of GDP65.479.674.4...
Current account in % of GDP5.97.63.80.61.11.8
FDI inflow, EUR m19194461795...
Gross external debt in % of GDP91.6102.197.3...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2022

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Bernhard Moshammer, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Nina Vujanović, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2022
58 pages including 4 Tables and 21 Figures

Details

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SLOVENIA: Encouraging economic performance tempered by concerns over inflation

Niko Korpar
in: Overshadowed by War and Sanctions
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2022, April 2022 , pp. 120-124
Details and Buy


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