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In 2024, real GDP will grow by 1.7% – a figure that is lower than expected, on account of sluggish export growth and a wariness on the part of companies to invest. Private spending and government investment will be the drivers of growth in 2024 and 2025. Growth should bounce back slightly in 2025, as foreign demand improves. The current account will remain in surplus, while inflation will settle at 2.5% and then decrease steadily in 2025. Low unemployment is fuelling wage hikes. Solid revenue will reduce the planned deficit, which will nevertheless remain significant until 2026.
        FORECAST*
Main Economic Indicators202120222023202420252026
Population, 1000 persons210821122120...
GDP, real change in %8.42.72.11.72.22.5
GDP per capita (EUR at PPP)291803179034850...
Gross industrial production, real change in %10.11.2-5.6...
Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average4.84.03.73.73.63.6
Average gross monthly wages, EUR197020242221...
Consumer prices, % p.a.2.09.37.22.52.32.2
Fiscal balance in % of GDP-4.6-3.0-2.4-2.4-2.0-1.2
Public debt in % of GDP74.772.668.3...
Current account in % of GDP3.3-1.04.42.72.62.4
FDI inflow, EUR m185620511056...
Gross external debt in % of GDP97.991.090.4...


Basic data are continuously updated.

* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.

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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2024

Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2024
45 pages including 5 Tables and 12 Figures

Details

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Executive summary

Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
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