Bulgaria
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 6878 | 6643 | 6445 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 18540 | 22020 | 24060 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 9.8 | 12.7 | -8.3 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 5.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 798 | 905 | 1029 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 2.8 | 13.0 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -3.9 | -2.9 | -1.9 | -4.0 | -3.0 | -3.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 23.9 | 22.6 | 23.1 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -1.7 | -1.4 | -0.3 | -1.2 | -1.5 | -1.8 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 2029 | 3131 | 4083 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 58.1 | 51.6 | 48.3 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
publication_icon
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2024
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2024
45 pages including 5 Tables and 12 Figures
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
The snap parliamentary elections held at the same time as the European vote did not result in any major change on the political scene: the GERB party came first in the vote but far from a majority to rule on its own. Consequently, the political impasse is likely to linger on. Economic performance remained sluggish in the first quarter, with GDP growing by 1.9% year on year – a pace similar to that recorded in the previous three quarters. The prolonged recession in manufacturing continued, with gross output down 6.5% year on year in Q1 2024. This mirrored the situation in the export sector: exports of goods remained in negative territory for a fifth consecutive quarter. The picture on the domestic demand side was quite different, as both private consumption and fixed investment recorded visible growth. Private consumption continued to be driven by rising real disposable income and an ongoing credit boom. The volume of new consumer loans in April was 44% higher than a year earlier, and the volume of new mortgage loans was up 60% year on year. On several occasions, the central bank has signalled that this expansion is unsustainable; however, it does not have effective instruments to hand to cool the surge in credit. One of the implications of this macroeconomic pattern is a widening current account deficit. There are no signs that the economic situation will change significantly in the coming months, and our forecast for GDP growth in 2024 as a whole remains unchanged from spring, at 2.0%.