Montenegro
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 619 | 617 | 615 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 13.0 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 3.5 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 15460 | 17580 | 19020 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 4.9 | -3.3 | 6.4 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 16.6 | 14.7 | 13.1 | 11.0 | 10.0 | 9.0 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 793 | 883 | 987 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 2.5 | 11.9 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 2.5 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -1.9 | -4.3 | 0.6 | -4.0 | -4.0 | -4.0 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 84.0 | 69.2 | 60.3 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -9.2 | -12.9 | -11.4 | -10.7 | -10.6 | -10.4 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 591 | 833 | 487 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 191.7 | 158.4 | 132.1 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
publication_icon
Monthly Report No. 7-8/2024
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Rumen Dobrinsky, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Bernd Christoph Ströhm, Maryna Tverdostup, Zuzana Zavarská and Adam Żurawski
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2024
45 pages including 5 Tables and 12 Figures
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
The economy is continuing to grow robustly, with GDP expanding by 4.4% year on year in Q1. The main driver of growth was investment, with inflows of foreign direct investment remaining strong, at 10% of GDP in Q1. Nearly half of those inflows went into real estate, and about a third originated in Serbia or Russia. The labour market continues to improve, with registered employment increasing and registered unemployment declining. Real wages, which have seen robust growth over the past two years, have plateaued, with growth at the beginning of 2024 close to zero. Meanwhile, inflation has recently accelerated, reaching 5.4% in April. Both these developments may herald a slowdown in consumption in the coming period. The fiscal situation remains stable, with the budget in surplus for the first four months of the year. Nonetheless, significant uncertainties arise from the government’s Europe Now 2 package, which aims to increase pensions and salaries, while reducing certain taxes. Details of the reform – including its implementation timeline and the specific measures involved – are still under wraps. A good tourist season in 2024 will be crucial for the economy, and early booking figures suggest that it will indeed be better than last year. Consequently, we are maintaining our forecasts for GDP growth and inflation in 2024 at 4.2% and 4.5%, respectively.