wiiw Current Analyses and Forecasts

Russia: Consolidated yet unspectacular recovery


Peter Havlik

in: Will Exports Prevail over Austerity?
wiiw Current Analyses and Forecasts No. 6, July 2010 , pp. 123-125

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The Russian economy started to recover from the crisis in late 2009.
The crisis has not been seized as an opportunity to overhaul economic policies; the strategic goal of economic diversification and modernization is slipping out of reach.
Fragile signs of recovery include a modest increase in output, a rise in export revenues, the stabilization of inflation and the exchange rate appreciation in early 2010.
The current forecast reckons with both private consumption and investment growing faster than GDP; the latter will grow by around 4% per year over the period 2010-2012.
The current account surplus will drop to below 3% of GDP by 2012. Annual CPI inflation will remain in single digits and the budget deficit will gradually revert to a surplus once again.
Demographics are mitigating the adverse effects of the crisis on employment as the supply of domestic labour is shrinking.


Reference to wiiw databases: wiiw Annual Database, wiiw Monthly Database

Countries covered: Russia