wiiw Current Analyses and Forecasts
Russia: Consolidated yet unspectacular recovery
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The crisis has not been seized as an opportunity to overhaul economic policies; the strategic goal of economic diversification and modernization is slipping out of reach.
Fragile signs of recovery include a modest increase in output, a rise in export revenues, the stabilization of inflation and the exchange rate appreciation in early 2010.
The current forecast reckons with both private consumption and investment growing faster than GDP; the latter will grow by around 4% per year over the period 2010-2012.
The current account surplus will drop to below 3% of GDP by 2012. Annual CPI inflation will remain in single digits and the budget deficit will gradually revert to a surplus once again.
Demographics are mitigating the adverse effects of the crisis on employment as the supply of domestic labour is shrinking.
Countries covered: Russia