wiiw Current Analyses and Forecasts
Russia: Consolidated yet unspectacular recovery
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Peter Havlik
in: Will Exports Prevail over Austerity?
wiiw Current Analyses and Forecasts No. 6, July 2010 , pp. 123-125
The Russian economy started to recover from the crisis in late 2009.
The crisis has not been seized as an opportunity to overhaul economic policies; the strategic goal of economic diversification and modernization is slipping out of reach.
Fragile signs of recovery include a modest increase in output, a rise in export revenues, the stabilization of inflation and the exchange rate appreciation in early 2010.
The current forecast reckons with both private consumption and investment growing faster than GDP; the latter will grow by around 4% per year over the period 2010-2012.
The current account surplus will drop to below 3% of GDP by 2012. Annual CPI inflation will remain in single digits and the budget deficit will gradually revert to a surplus once again.
Demographics are mitigating the adverse effects of the crisis on employment as the supply of domestic labour is shrinking.
The crisis has not been seized as an opportunity to overhaul economic policies; the strategic goal of economic diversification and modernization is slipping out of reach.
Fragile signs of recovery include a modest increase in output, a rise in export revenues, the stabilization of inflation and the exchange rate appreciation in early 2010.
The current forecast reckons with both private consumption and investment growing faster than GDP; the latter will grow by around 4% per year over the period 2010-2012.
The current account surplus will drop to below 3% of GDP by 2012. Annual CPI inflation will remain in single digits and the budget deficit will gradually revert to a surplus once again.
Demographics are mitigating the adverse effects of the crisis on employment as the supply of domestic labour is shrinking.
Reference to wiiw databases: wiiw Annual Database, wiiw Monthly Database
Countries covered: Russia