wiiw Forecast Reports
POLAND: Leaving stagnation (and inflation) behind?
Adam Żurawski
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. 105-108
A shallow recession in the first half of 2023 was followed by a moderate recovery in the second, allowing GDP to grow by 0.2% in 2023 as a whole. Inflation and inflationary expectations are falling, while wages are rising apace. If this extra money is saved rather than spent, then the higher household incomes could depress output growth and support disinflation. Though the energy prices are likely to jump by up to 20% in July 2024, this need not provoke a return to high inflation. Nonetheless the move will affect private consumption and limit GDP growth.
Reference to wiiw databases: wiiw Annual Database, wiiw Monthly Database
Countries covered: Poland