wiiw Forecast Reports
ROMANIA: Getting away with large fiscal imbalances
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in: No Quick Recovery in Sight, with Coronavirus Risks Looming Large
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2020, November 2020 , pp. 100-103
Despite the high epidemiological risk, the government plans only local lockdowns in future. GDP is projected to decline by 5.5% in 2020 and to hit its 2019 level only in 2022. A budget deficit of close to 10% of GDP has caused a rise in bond yields and currency depreciation, but presents no immediate risk to external financing. The December election should produce a centre-right coalition government; it is expected to improve public governance – an important precondition for spending EU funds.
Reference to wiiw databases: wiiw Annual Database, wiiw Monthly Database
Countries covered: Romania