wiiw Forecast Reports

Russia’s war in Ukraine: Variables, scenarios and outlook


Marcus How

in: Bracing for the Winter
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2022, October 2022 , pp. 8-21

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We identify four scenarios for the possible outcome of the war in Ukraine through 2023. The baseline scenario is that the war will continue, with hostilities mainly based on attrition, hybrid and asymmetrical warfare, and virtually no scope for a peace agreement. However, the likelihood of the defeat of Russia has increased. An imminent defeat would threaten the stability of its political regime, which would in turn increase the likelihood that Moscow escalates the situation and resorts to nuclear weapons. The defeat of Ukraine at this stage seems unlikely.


Reference to wiiw databases: wiiw Annual Database, wiiw Monthly Database

Countries covered: Albania, Austria, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Central and East Europe, CESEE, China, CIS, Croatia, Czechia, Estonia, Euro Area, European Union, Hungary, Israel, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Montenegro, New EU Member States, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Southeast Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, US, Western Balkans

Research Areas: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy, Labour, Migration and Income Distribution, International Trade, Competitiveness and FDI