WIIW The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies - Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche

The Russian GDP grew by more than 4% in 2011 thanks to a robust recovery of fixed investment, construction and consumer expenditures. The contribution of net exports to GDP growth was sharply negative (despite a sizeable nominal increase in trade and current account surplus). wiiw reckons with unspectacular GDP growth during 2012-2014, assuming no abrupt policy changes or external shocks. Export revenues will grow rather slowly owing to stagnating volumes of exported oil and gas; import volumes are expected to grow at a faster rate as household consumption and investment will gradually pick up, both fuelled by the ongoing real currency appreciation. In the medium and long run, reforms and investments (including FDI) may be stimulated by WTO membership, while the attempted modernisation drive will hardly succeed any time soon. With some luck the annual CPI inflation may gradually drop to 5% and the budget deficit will remain balanced.