Trade integration in the CIS: Alternate options, economic effects and policy implications for Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine (project)

Inhalt der Seite

Trade integration in the CIS: Alternate options, economic effects and policy implications for Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine

Client/Funding Institution

Anniversary Fund of the Oesterreichische Nationalbank

Abstract

The study examines the effects of various trade agreements between CIS states on the conditions for trade (non-tariff barriers and other administrative issues linked to trade) and also the economic impact these agreements have through trade. Emphasis is placed on the sequence of trade agreements signed between Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan since the 1990s, which has recently culminated in a new Customs Union agreement. Furthermore, potential effects if Ukraine joins the Customs Union and its WTO compatibility are estimated. In contrast with recent research in this area, it is planned to estimate the non-tariff impact of these new agreements with an econometric gravity model of bilateral trade at the industry level using more up-to-date data. Policy implications for the economic integration of the region resulting from the analysis will be discussed as well.