WIIW The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies - Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche

GDP growth exceeded 5% in 2023, thanks to the resilience of the economy under war conditions and ample financial and military aid from the West. The establishment of a new shipping route in the Black Sea helped Ukraine partly offset the effects of the border blockade by Poland. However, friction has recently surfaced over the provision of military and financial assistance to Ukraine, and that could hamper further recovery of the economy in 2024. Economic growth will accelerate in 2025-2026, conditional on a reduction in security risks and an expansion of the reconstruction efforts. Downside risks to the forecast have increased: top among these is the risk that Ukraine could lose the war, due to inadequate support from the West.