WIIW The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies - Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche

In Q2 2023, Ukraine’s real GDP grew by 19.5% year on year, reflecting both the base effect and the resilience of the economy. Exports of agricultural and food products have been growing, despite Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Inflation has slowed more than expected, on the back of falling food and fuel prices. Given the greater-than-anticipated resilience of the economy, our GDP growth forecast for 2023 has been revised upwards. However, as the war is likely to be more protracted than we had initially hoped, growth in 2024-2025 will be lower than previously forecast. Most risks to the forecast continue to be on the downside.