wiiw Current Analyses and Forecasts

Ukraine: Slipping into recession


Vasily Astrov

in: Double-dip Recession over, yet no Boom in Sight
wiiw Current Analyses and Forecasts No. 11, March 2013 , pp. 131-135

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The plunging global prices of metals hit Ukraine's exports and pushed the economy into recession in the second half of last year – despite the ongoing boom in household consumption. Our forecast of a return to positive growth in 2013 is based on the assumption of a timely and ‘controlled’ currency devaluation, which would be crucial for the badly needed growth re-balancing. In the longer run, modernization and restructuring could be hampered by the country's increasing political isolation and the largely protectionist stance of the government.


Reference to wiiw databases: wiiw Annual Database, wiiw Monthly Database

Countries covered: Ukraine