wiiw Current Analyses and Forecasts
Ukraine: Slipping into recession
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in: Double-dip Recession over, yet no Boom in Sight
wiiw Current Analyses and Forecasts No. 11, March 2013 , pp. 131-135
The plunging global prices of metals hit Ukraine's exports and pushed the economy into recession
in the second half of last year – despite the ongoing boom in household consumption. Our forecast
of a return to positive growth in 2013 is based on the assumption of a timely and ‘controlled’ currency
devaluation, which would be crucial for the badly needed growth re-balancing. In the longer run,
modernization and restructuring could be hampered by the country's increasing political isolation and
the largely protectionist stance of the government.
Reference to wiiw databases: wiiw Annual Database, wiiw Monthly Database
Countries covered: Ukraine