wiiw Current Analyses and Forecasts

Albania: Deleveraging and improved business confidence – unity and conflict of opposites


Mario Holzner

in: Animal Spirits still Dimmed: Slow Recovery Expected
wiiw Current Analyses and Forecasts No. 12, July 2013 , pp. 119-120

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In Albania the deleveraging process will act as a drag on economic development in the years to come. This is also one of the reasons for having corrected downwards our GDP growth forecast for 2014: from 3.3% to a mere 2.5%. Interestingly, the most recent business and consumer confidence survey results for the first quarter of 2013 show a further improvement in the overall economic sentiment indicator. The construction sector, in particular, has recently experienced a substantial improvement in confidence after years of deterioration. The above contradictory developments lead us to expect a GDP trend growth rate of around 3% for 2015 and beyond.


Reference to wiiw databases: wiiw Annual Database, wiiw Monthly Database

Countries covered: Albania