WIIW The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies - Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche

Albania has a low volume of trade with Russia and Ukraine, but it will experience negative spill-overs from the war in Ukraine, on account of its strong trade relations with the EU. Monetary policy has shifted towards higher interest rates, and the government’s fiscal stimulus measures will go some way to support consumption. Exports of minerals and fuel have gained momentum; however the country’s current account balance will deteriorate. According to the baseline scenario, inflation this year will be 6% and growth 3.5%. In the medium term, inflation will fall to 3% and growth will rise to 3.9%.