wiiw Current Analyses and Forecasts
Albania: Rainfall export growth
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in: Will Exports Prevail over Austerity?
wiiw Current Analyses and Forecasts No. 6, July 2010 , pp. 110-112
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For Albania, we expect final consumption to stagnate in 2010, while investment will only register a minimal increase.
This minuscule increase may come about as a result of the heavy rains boosting hydro-generated energy exports, while exports of manufactures may also increase on account of exchange rate depreciation.
Our forecast of a GDP growth rate of 1.7% for 2010 derives from the improvements in the current account.
On the assumption that the international environment will start to improve slightly in both 2011 and 2012, a very modest improvement in household consumption and private investment can be expected.
We thus forecast a growth rate of around 2% in 2011 and 3% in 2012. These rates represent only about one half of Albania's potential growth rate in the medium term.
This minuscule increase may come about as a result of the heavy rains boosting hydro-generated energy exports, while exports of manufactures may also increase on account of exchange rate depreciation.
Our forecast of a GDP growth rate of 1.7% for 2010 derives from the improvements in the current account.
On the assumption that the international environment will start to improve slightly in both 2011 and 2012, a very modest improvement in household consumption and private investment can be expected.
We thus forecast a growth rate of around 2% in 2011 and 3% in 2012. These rates represent only about one half of Albania's potential growth rate in the medium term.
Reference to wiiw databases: wiiw Annual Database, wiiw Monthly Database
Countries covered: Albania, SEE