wiiw Forecast Reports
CESEE Overview: External weakness dampening robust consumer-driven growth
Richard Grieveson and Branimir Jovanović
in: External weakness dampening robust consumer-driven growth
wiiw Forecast Report No. October 2024, October 2024 , pp. 11-42
Our autumn 2024 forecast shows that the trends identified in the summer remain broadly the same, with a decent, but unspectacular, recovery across most of the region. We expect CESEE as a whole to grow by 3.2% this year, 3.1% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026, in all cases barely changed from the 3.2% expansion of 2023. The composition of growth in CESEE remains unbalanced, with domestic demand performing strongly, but external demand still weak, on account of low or negative growth in Germany and other key partners. Our projections indicate a very solid outlook for convergence in CESEE over the forecast period. Most countries of the region will comfortably outperform the euro area both this year and in 2025-2026.
Reference to wiiw databases: wiiw Annual Database, wiiw Monthly Database
Countries covered: Albania, Austria, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Central and East Europe, CESEE, CIS, Croatia, Czechia, Estonia, Euro Area, European Union, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Southeast Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, US, Western Balkans
Research Areas: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy, International Trade, Competitiveness and FDI