wiiw Forecast Reports

Convergence Monitor: CESEE again proves its resilience


Richard Grieveson

in: Beneath the Veneer of Calm
wiiw Forecast Report No. Autumn 2023, October 2023 , pp. 44-46

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The years since 2019 have been tumultuous ones for CESEE, with the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, followed by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. In this context, over this period the continued per capita GDP convergence of almost all the CESEE countries with Germany has been remarkable. 21 of the 23 CESEE countries posted per capita GDP convergence with Germany in purchasing power standard (PPS) terms. The top performers were Turkey, Romania, Poland and Croatia, all of which increased their wealth levels versus Germany by 7 percentage points or more. However, while the positive per capita convergence performance is a welcome sign, it may have been helped by the region’s loss of population. Our new forecasts suggest that most countries of the region will continue to catch up with Germany, but there are major challenges to future convergence performance.


Reference to wiiw databases: wiiw Annual Database, wiiw Monthly Database

Countries covered: Albania, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Central and East Europe, CESEE, China, CIS, Croatia, Czechia, Estonia, Euro Area, European Union, Hungary, Israel, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Montenegro, New EU Member States, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Southeast Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, US, Western Balkans

Research Areas: Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy, International Trade, Competitiveness and FDI